daily market analysis from forexmart

GBP/USD Technical Analysis: July 26, 2018





The British currency drove higher amid trading course yesterday and attempt to grind above the 1.32 level. Generally, we can expect for the resumption of short-term pullbacks which may act as buying opportunities with a slower motion. In this case, shorting this market is not recommended due to the recent formation of some “basing pattern”. Also, there is a possibility of a move through the 1.32 region or 1.3250 eventually.


Traders should take note about the headlines which could possibly trigger issues with the sterling pound aside from the conflict between the Conservative Party and Theresa May, which argues for the common ground of the Brexit. Forecasts show that the market will begin searching for the level below 1.30 as the “absolute floor” of the GBP, hence, longer-term traders will buy the dips based on its value.


For some time, the pound became quite oversold and the “buy-and-hold” traders in the longer-term will return to the market to acquire benefits from lower prices. Ultimately, the dips can be seen turning around with impulsive trends and the top of 1.33 handle would likely be broken but may require a series of attempt to overcome that level.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis: July 27, 2018

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: July 31, 2018





The single European currency paired with the US dollar and reach higher than the 1.17 region. But, we can see plenty of supply above that level which makes it interesting to break on top of the 1.1730 handle. With that, it indicates a move through the area of 1.1750 but it is hard to break higher until the release of news from the central banks as well as employment figures this week. It is believed that the market will extend to the upside while players search for some short-term selling opportunity in the past.


Aside from that, the market was in a symmetrical triangle and the jobs figure could possibly break out that triangle and we expect a longer-term trade play on Friday. Apparently, the entire scenario might change because of geopolitical issue or some kind of news, however, the market would likely continue to be noisy in the near term while it will be difficult to stay in the longer-term condition. A break above the 1.1750 zone will push the market on top of the 1.1850 region, which is the highest point of the overall consolidation in the longer term.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis: August 1, 2018

GBP/USD Technical Analysis: August 2, 2018





The British currency had a pullback earlier amid trading course yesterday, however, the level below 1.31 seems to be supportive and rebounded within 30 pips through the American session. According to forecast, the 1.31 region will continue to have support with the involvement of the Bank of England, since such large moves are impossible with this market. Moreover, the short-term pullbacks would likely open doors for buying opportunities, but the next scenario will be determined by the statement from London. Interest rate hike is further anticipated, making the statement more attractive to the traders’ attention.


When the UK’s central bank lifted its rates in the future, the British pound will gain optimism but it seems to be some kind of “one and done” scenario and may result to some selloff. The 1.32 region above will be the resistance, but a cut through on top of that level would push a move higher.


While a gap lower than the 1.31 mark would search for a significant support around 1.30 zone. An area that is considered to be supportive in the longer term and could offer a lot of opportunities to acquire major value.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: August 3, 2018





At the beginning of Tuesday session, the euro dropped sharply with the support level found at 1.16, which is the bottom of the symmetrical triangle as a large round psychological number. Hereinafter, it won’t be long before the market attempts to break out of the symmetrical triangle since the jobs data will reach it. If the pair breaks the level of 1.16, the market could slide down towards 1.15 where there is an important support. Moving around, the pair breaks higher than 1.1750 that offers resistance and breakthrough on this level would push the price towards 1.1850.


It is not unexpected that the pair will move in the middle of the symmetrical triangle after the trading session with the release of jobs data. There is a lot of noise in the market amid the subdued month of August that slowed things down. It seems that there is a massive support at 1.15 and it will be a significant event for a break lower. It is likely for the price to consolidate in the next few weeks. In this case, a breakout on the symmetrical triangle will dismiss it.

USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis: August 6, 2018





The USD/JPY currency pair trades slightly lower on Monday morning, however, the pair was able to keep its position above the Friday’s low. The market lost its entire gains after accelerating to 112.152 level and followed by the Bank of Japan’s decision on monetary policy last week.


While both monetary policy decisions of the U.S. Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan neutralized each other last week and much of the price activity favored safe haven purchases linked with the increasing trade battle between China and the United States.


Another factor that contributed to the weakening of the USDJPY was the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report that came mixed on Friday. The US labor growth further declined than predicted in July, but the weak jobless rate indicates that the job market conditions tighten. The traders of the dollar/yen pair continue to observe the U.S. Treasury yields as it dropped on Friday after the labor report. Also, the insufficient economic data on Monday allowed the USDJPY investors to focus on the U.S. Treasury yields and such developments with the trading relationships of the US and China.


Moreover, the expected direction of the USD/JPY for today can be identified by the trader's respond towards the 50% to 61.8% retracement zone at 111.459 to 111.295 in the near term. A sustained move at 111.459 would likely create the required impetus for an upside bias, while a sustained trend below 111.295 indicates the existence of sellers.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis: August 7, 2018





The sterling pound had a significant break down as this week started along with some current issues regarding the Brexit. However, the trend for the next day seems crucial. The level below 1.29 is massively supportive according to the longer-term charts, which serves as the bottom of the zone in FX markets. Hence, a break down under that zone will indicate a longer-term sell signal.


On the other hand, a reversal and a rebound would prompt buyers to return and pick up some value. This will further heighten some optimistic news from the United Kingdom which involves Brexit.


The next target for a break down is the 1.2750 region or the 1.25 level eventually. The GBP remains to be difficult to deal with due to a lot of concerns regarding its economy. While volatility can be reliable for the pound/dollar for some time.

USD/JPY Technical Analysis: August 8, 2018

GBP/USD Technical Analysis: August 10, 2018





The British currency seesawed during the trading course yesterday while testing the 1.29 region for resistance but, there is no dramatic selloff happened. As of this writing, the GBP/USD is oversold and many professional traders await for a rebound to begin selling again. While retail traders are very good in “chasing the trade” which makes them sell down from that level.


Apparently, there are a lot of problems with Brexit and because of that, people are waiting for the headlines from London especially when it has something to do with the referendum or the consensus with the UK Conservative Party.


Eventually, it seems that the pound/dollar pair would likely reach even lower but traders should not let this to happen because the pair is almost oversold. It should be noted that the level above 1.30 will serve as the resistance. Sooner or later, traders will beat up the sterling pound, however, there are scarcely any of them who are currently selling. It is suggested to move near the 1.2750 zone for the next couple of weeks, but the unity with the Conservative Party would support this market to grow.


It looks like that the weakening of the pound will nearly end because of the few people who remained short in this market and nobody wants to suffer from a rapid price decline. While selling rallies in the near-term on signs of exhaustion is expected to remain effective.

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: August 13, 2018





The British pound was priced at 1.2750 in the early session with the support at 1.27. Currently, the pair is traded at 1.2763, dropped by 0.07% on the day, implying signs of consolidation. In the previous week, the pair returned full scale due to risk aversion as a precaution to the Turkish banking sector in the emerging market. Meanwhile, traders are moving back to the US dollar with risk flows at a full reverse while the British pound is presumed to continue with a strong bearish sentiment against the greenback after the Bank of England Governor Mark Carney & Trade Secretary Liam Fox gave an indication of a no-deal Brexit possibility.




In the technical perspective, there are hints of a continuous bearish approach despite the fundamental news hinting on a bullish pullback possibility. For a third succeeding week, the pair has been on a bearish decline with no signs that could indicate downward exhaustion and technical indicators of strong downward slopes. The RSI is around 24 at the moment. On the 4-hour chart, the pair moves bearishly with the 20-SMA directed downward at 1.2865 and the momentum indicators just entered a modest upward correction. The technical levels on the resistance level will be at 1.2795, 1.2830, 1.2865 and the support level will be at 1.2720, 1.2680, 1.2645.

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: August 14, 2018





The trepidation of European banks has pushed the euro down over the past two days. Some reports reveal that a pastor has been detained in Turkey that could appease the tension between Turkey and the United States. Consequently, this pushed the Turkish lira and eased the pressure and fear in European banks. In these considerations, a resumption higher is likely to take place. Thus, there are technicals that should be monitored such as the level of 1.1475 which was an important supply level previously. Of course, there is the level of 1.15 and beyond that. Needless to say, there is a bit sign of pause and any signs of a problem could cause a rollover of the pair.


One concern is the little information about the Turkish economy that puts them in the spotlight globally. Hence, the market is likely to be anxious, siding on a safe side over anything else. If the price breaks above the level of 1.154, the price will probably continue to rally substantially. Later on, a short-term rally could be reversed with the choice of wrong words.

USD/JPY Technical Analysis: August 15, 2018

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: August 16, 2018

GBP/USD Technical Analysis: August 17, 2018





The sterling pound attempted to rally yesterday but had some struggle at the 1.2735 level, an area that reaches up to 1.2750 and considered a major support zone in the longer-term charts. Failure to break above that level indicates a short-term rebound that will engage traders to join. The market uses the 1.27 region as a minor support for the daytime trading but it has low chance to change the general forecast for this market in general. The target is at the area of 1.25 which is regarded as a psychologically significant figure.


A break down beneath the 1.25 zone would likely offer an opportunity to sell or give up the sell-off period. It is believed that most of the Brexit selling had already been taken into account but we should expect for some downward pressure. Nevertheless, an extensive flat can be seen and the further scenario will begin when people would realize that the UK will separate from the EU to have its own empire.