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Thread: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

  1. #361
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    EUR/USD Technical Analysis: October 5, 2018





    The EUR/USD pair recovered by the end of the London session and the bulls were able to sustain gains yesterday. In the early Asian session, the greenback has gained momentum for a short while it seems that the euro bulls are not on the lead after its breakthrough to the support level of 1.15 even before the start of the London session. Amid all the headlines and reports, the euro is likely to face more problems and further decline.


    However, this did not happen as the currency was able to recover from the lows of the range which pushed the pair to further go up towards the 1.15 soon enough. In the meantime, this weakened the bullishness of the dollar and importantly considering the bullish sentiment of the dollar. From here on, we could wait for the next activity and majority of the news about to be published from the US and expect some form of volatility.


    It may be wise for traders to wait until the reports are released and everything settled before choosing a decision on the next direction of the dollar. As for the euro, it looks stable for now while the focus of the market is on the Fed. Both the dollar and Trump are expected to affect the market for short-term. The recovery gives hope to the dollar bulls for short-term and probably take the lead in trading in the few days to come. However, as of the moment, the market sentiment shows a neutral trading.

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    EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: October 8, 2018





    The euro major pair persisted holding the level of 1.15 on Friday, which is likely to similarly happen today. The pair bounced up from the low range on Thursday and the support level was further held up by the bulls giving optimistic outlook in the future. Few updates added to bullishness of the currency while some markets, especially stable funds, have thought of the euro downtrend to be limited.


    The bulls are able to prop up the support level and probably aim for further purchases to raise the price. It may not be easy for the dollar which is gaining more support because of the Fed, especially with its recent rate hike. Other than that, the dollar currency is also considered to be the good investment in times of crisis which has been for a long time. However, the price just did for a few times.


    Furthermore, the price was further supported by the recent talk from the Fed chief Powell who evidently said that there could still be other rate hikes and further boost the dollar. Given this situation, the euro bulls carried took control and held the support area around 1.15 but it may not be easy to further bring the price up. There is not much economic news recently and the euro is likely to consolidate and range almost the rest of the day.

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    EUR/USD Technical Analysis: October 9, 2018





    The euro major pair closed on a bearish sentiment yesterday amid dovish pressure on the currency and escalating trade tensions. There are also some concerns related to Italy’s budget that was just approved last week. European equities also plunged down to multiple months low on Monday while Italian government bond rose to 4-year high. Italy’s deputy PM noted that anti-austerity perspective will get more powerful across the continent. The euro pair comes in flat and steady at the beginning of Tuesday far from 1.15 but close to the short-term lows.


    It seems that the euro pair would extend its decline in reference to the chart while the dollar positions to go higher when the market return in full power and the US Treasury yields will surge up. The pair was not able to hold moderate gains steady above the bearish 20-SMA. Currently, a dynamic intraday resistance is found at 1.1500 with the momentum remains at a bearish slope lower than 100. Yet, the RSI indicator moved steadily above oversold area despite limited volume and insufficient momentum. In the technical aspect, the resistance level is at 1.1500, 1.1530, 1.1565 and support at 1.1460, 1.1420, 1.1475.

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    EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: October 10, 2018





    The euro against the US dollar exhibited a sharp drop during the Tuesday session because of Italian policy news, as well as, deputy PM Salvin rhetorics in plans of maintaining the budget and EU rules are anticipated to change. A strong dollar added more concern, resulting to surge in US Treasury yields. However, the euro begins to take the lead later on as the dollar weakened in the market due to the drop in US bond yield after reaching record highs. Moreover, risk sentiment has just returned in the market giving a positive impact following a hawkish tone in the Wall Street in the global market.


    In a technical aspect, a long-tailed Doji candle was observed, implying a sell-off from the September high of 1.1815. A bullish reversal would be confirmed if the spot closes this day higher than the Doji candle of 1.1503. Based on the chart, the descending line has been cleared and trades above the 50- and 100-EMA with the RSI at 55, siding with the bulls. The 4-hour chart shows a bullish RSI divergence. It seems that this will result positively on long-legged Doji candle yesterday, confirming a bullish reversal. Yet, there would be lesser tendency to turn bullish from bearish if the Italian bond yields surge in the European session.

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    EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: October 11, 2018





    The euro rose during the Wednesday session. A breakout on the level of 1.15 indicates that there is a demand for the currency. There is a “risk on” move with US traders and drive momentum.


    We have seen this scenario where just recently the euro got a sell-off and the North Americans will have a steer to move forward in later in the day, of course, taking note of riskier currencies. Similarly, this is how the trading with the S&P 500 futures market and other precious metals. Worries on Brexit will still be apparent, as well as the debt issue with Italy. These bring uncertainty to traders but the US traders will give attention to their own economy.


    Trading on mornings around 9 am where there is a momentum on the oversold situation can be advantageous. Eventually this is likely to change its course but for now, it seems to be moving steadily. The euro pair is not that far from forming the bottom for long-term, where both the resistance and support were previously located last year. A psychologically important level was found at the resistance of 1.18 which seems to be the aim of buyers. Moreover, a lot of noise will likely be present and considering the pair, we can expect more buyers below. A breakdown below 1.14 could result in a sharp decline. Nevertheless, it is less likely to occur at the present time.

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    EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: October 12, 2018





    The euro major pair climbed to the top at 1.1590 prior to the release of the US data, which was the highest since October 3. In regards to recent US president, Donald Trump, the statement on fed’s tightening and plunged down equities influencing weakness of dollar during yesterday’s trading. The pair reached the intra-day high 1.15992 since the US CPI and unemployment reports did not meet expectations, resulting in further bullishness of the trend since today is the last day of the week.


    In the beginning of the Asian session, the pair broke the level of 1.16, reaching an intra-day and even the monthly high at 1.16103 from 1.1606, grew by 0.11%. With Japan’s equities proceed to trade in red, other major markets such as India, Singapore, and China sighted equities to have an optimistic price action. The US dollar has been trading at its lowest level in October against other markets on Friday while continue to lose in US Treasury yields bringing pessimistic sentiment on Wall Street. On Friday, the dollar traded at 95 against six major currencies from 96.15 monthly high on Tuesday.

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    EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: October 15, 2018





    The euro against the US dollar resumes trading in a slow but steady pace while the market focuses on the dollar being unable to grow. Hence, the dollar was able to gain some decent profits since the start of the year but the euro and the pound were able to take their stand against the dollar. Meanwhile, this gives pressure on the dollar but uncertainty is still on the concern if the dollar could still get a lead.


    The Fed is doing what it can to bring the dollar up but it is insufficient. They tried to break lower than 1.15 in the past few weeks but there have been strong buying of the pair and fails as it faced strong purchases and bounce over 1.15. The bulls also were not able to push the prices but still keep going that resulted in a flat in the past few weeks.


    There are also concerns on US account deficit in a negative state for a long while which is anticipated to resume for medium-term which cannot be changed for the night despite government’s efforts. This adds pressure to the dollar with rising borrowing costs that will worry the dollar bulls in the medium term. For today, the US retail sales data adds volatility while the bulls are trying to take the lead.

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