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Thread: analytical forecast from trader with experience

  1. #1
    Senior Member Profit Man's Avatar
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    analytical forecast from trader with experience

    "Market vision from Valen10n"

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    Niche 1.3723-1.3825 ki satah hai. Agar qimat isse kam hoti hai to, ham pehle se bat chit shuru kar sakte hain ki mandi chal rahi hai. Ander aaj ki kam hadd 1.3775 hai, jahan se, agar woh niche aane ka intezam kren to, mein khariddari par gaur karunga.



    Pound ke liye, frokht ki surate haal thi, lekin mein sirf 1.3872-1.3908 ke lazmi zone se farokht par gaur karunga. Ab mein khariddari ko barqarar rakhta hun (kyunkeh Wednesday ko hamen Wednesday ke bare mein nhin bhoolna chahiye), jo us satah se hai jismen qimat waqe hai, yah cited message se dekha ja sakta hai. Mein uljhan mein hun ki qimat 1.3765 se jyadah hai. Euro ke liye, bhi frokht ki suratehaal hai, kyonkeh upper limit abhi laazmi zone ke ander hai, lekin laazmi zone 1.2240-1.2269 se frokht par gaur karna zaruri hai. Mein ek hi taswir ko unload karta hun, lower demand level, jis par qimat bhut qarib thi aur ham jori kharid sakte hai. Qimat filhall 1.2186 ke baqi ke uper hai, jise par nhi kiya ja sakta.


  3. #3
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    International Women’s Day par is thread ko padhne wali tamam khawatin ko mubarakbad!

    Jaisa ki meine imkan ko badhane ke liye ek naya indicatod shamil kiya, tasweer bhi dhundla ho gya. TST ke mutabiq, Euro aur Sterling taqriban ek hi surat e haal dikhata hai. Lazmi zone qeemat se niche aur nichle sarhad ke qareeb hai. Balance qeemat se ooper hai.

    European session mein aaj bahut se taqribat hongi jo Euro ki dynamic par asar dal sal sakti hai, isliye mein shayad abhi ke liye opening positions se bachne chahunga. Mere wahid variant 1.2537 - 1.2561 ke satah se ooper ke stop ke sath resistance se frokht darj karna hai. Yah satha TST ke sath mail nahin khata hai. Jori ke liye upside channel bahut wasii hai.



    British Pound ke liye, teenon satah mein se sirf sab se kam tareen satah mere liye munasib hai isliye aaj mein khariddari se bach raha hun. Lower boundary 1.3848 hai aur agar qeemat bhi kam ho jati hai to, to mein waise bhi khariddari par haur karunga.

    Mere indicators ke mutabiq mujhe 1.3978-1.4001 par accha resistance mila hai. Lekin 1.405 par oopri hadd se ooper, 1.4058-1.4078 par ek aur supply hai. Agar qeemat is tak pahunchti jati hai to mein is satah se ooper ke stop ke sath jori ko frokht kar dunga.


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    Haal me, main US dollar-Canadian dollar pair par mukammal tawajjoh de raha hun. TST satah bata hai keh jori farokht ke dawab me hai aur balance zone ke niche hai. Taaham, trading din ke ibtedai marahal me yah lower boundary ke pas 1.2795 par tha. In haalat me, qimat channel ke niche ja sakti hai.



    Agar loonie aisa karta hai, to yah aaj ke buy trades ke liye bhut favorable manzar hoga. Sabse pehle, record par musalsal 3 isi tarah ki kam haddod hain. Main yahan buy trades ko nahi open karunga jab tak keh wo 1.2739-1.2761 ke demand levels ke mutabiq nahi hon.



    Jiasa jeh maine apne pichle post me zikar kiya hai, is hafte ki call option ki sabse badi taidad is ilaqe mein waqe hogi. Iska matlab hai keh zone strong hai. COT report mandi ke liye favourable nhi tha, isliye qeemat 29 pattern par aa sakti hai. Mere pas aaj koi sell trades nahi hai. Oopri hadd ke ooper satah maujood hain, lekin mujhe ummid nahi hai keh qeemat whan tak pahunche ka intezam karegi.

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    Ham do curve dekhte hain jo taqriban ek jaise hai. Yah ishara karta hai keh forces ek jaisa hi hai aur unke darmiyan qeemat rukne ka jyada imkan hai. Curves visible hai lekin un dono ke darmiyan rukne se koi joy nahin hai )) Mujhe lagta hai ki ham 2467 par old debt lene ke liye ja rahe hain. Uper sab kuch khalis science fiction hai aur ham path ko follow nahin karte hain. Baqi ke liye, sab se pahle, main 2351 ke balance par intezar kar raha hun, doosra, din aur hafte ke aala tareen execution aur fir...ham dekhenge. Kam se kam, yah sabse munasib tareeqa hai. Aur ham dekhenge ki yah kis tarah chalta hai, Trump ya May kuch koshish kar sakte hain, aur sab har chiz kharab kar sakta hai.


  6. #6
    Senior Member Profit Man's Avatar
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    Euro. Kal ek tasulsul hua aur 17,000 contracts ka trade sirf 5 minutes me hua. Yah ek bahut badi volume hai. Aham bat yah keh, yah us ilaqe me hua jo maine pahle bayan kiya tha. Ittefaq? mujhe aisa nahi lagta. Yah aham satah hai jo ki forex par 1.2300 hai. Majmui tasweer mundarza zail hai: Hamare pas ek false entry hai, fir ek strong bullish momentum hai, aur fir ek izafa (jo ki confusing hai). Is tarah ke tasulsul ke bad main sakhti se taweel arse se jane ki shifarish karta hun. Mujhe kal ki badi meqdar ke ilaqe ki janib ek pullback ki ummid hai jahan se main market me dakhil hone ke bare me sochunga.


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    Assalam Alaikum! previous plan ne sirf girawat ke liye kaam kiya tha, Taaham, maine Pound ke bare me likha tha ki nichli hadd ke qarib qeemat flat ho sakti hai, kyonkeh yah Americans ki taraf se cheda gaya tha. Aaj ke liye, hamen Fed mil gaya hai, lekin sham ko der se, isse pahle, agar ham kar sakte hain, to hamare pas trade karne aur munafa lene ka sahi waqt hai. Khabren hamari madad kar sakti hai. Cahlen Euro se shuru karen. Aaj, khabron me, taman joron ke pas extended range jai. TST par 1.2258 ki oopri hadd ke qarib Euro khola gaya. Iska matlab yah nahi hai ki hamen farokht karna hoga. Sabse pahle, Euro 50-60 points ki hadon ko tadna pasand karta hai. Doosri bat keh, sarhad ke pas khulne par, ek aala imkan hai keh yah hadd toot jayegi. Iske ilawa, hame khariddari me jaldi nahi karna chahiye, sirf agar aap ke pas kal ki ya purani khariddari nahin hai. Ispar zor diya jana chahiye, keh koi lazmi zone nahi hai. Din ka balance 1.2181 hai, kharidne ke liye ek acchi jagah hai, lekin sirf khabar aane par qeemat wahan aa sakti hai, lekin wahan hamen trading begair market par nazar rakhna chahiye, ya bahut mohtayat rahna chahiye.



    Pound ke liye, aaj qeemat 1.3982-1.4001 ke lazmi zone aur 1.4019 ke tawazun ke darmiyan hadd ke bich me khul gayi hai. Asia me, sab kuch gair tabdil shuda raha, aur agar ham pichle din ko len, jab hamne nichli hadd se approach kiya, to qeemant abhi bhi flat hai. Yah wazeh taur par guzishtah aala ke muqable jyada hai, aur shayd wahan qeemat ki ijazat nahi hai, lehaza Europe me shomal ki tawaqqo ki ummid hai aur lazmi zone himayat ke taur par kaam karega. Lekin north 1.4052 ke pichle tawazun par hai, qeemat abhi tak jyada nahi ho sakti hai, lekin yah haqiqat nahin hai. Lehaza, aaj main Paound par transactions par le jaunga, aur main isme entry aur trading ke liye behtar hamhe ka intezar kar raha hun.



    Jaisa ki Loonie ke liye, kal main ne likha tha ki main abhi bhi tradind ke bina market par nazar rakhta taha; khastaur taur par aaj yah lazmi zone aur nichi hadd se ooper khula, jo is lazmi zone me tha aur unhen niche tod diya. Aaj, iske bajaye Australian dollar hoga. Australian dollar ke liye, wazeh flat hai, jo hafte ke aagaz se jari hai. Aaj, yah suratehaal khabron par badal jayegi, aur pahle kya hoga aap thori si peshgoi kar sakte hain. Qeemat 0.7737 ki oopri hadd ke thik niche aur 0.7707-0.7739 ke lazmi zone ke khuli. Yah selling position ko zahir karta hai, aur chunkeh qeemat taqriban is mzahmat ke qarib aa gayi hai, to yah kaha ja sakta hai ki khabar se pahle girawat ka aala imkan hai. Hadaf 0.7628 tawazun ho sakta hai, lekin haal hi me jis tarah badh rahi hai, yah aaj ke liye bahut door ka hadaf hai aur mujhe dar hai ki yah Fed tak nahi pahunch payega. Jahan tak khariddari ki bat hai, mujhe lagta hai ki yah iske liye behtar din nahin hai.


  8. #8
    Senior Member Profit Man's Avatar
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    Abhi ke liye, hadaf 1.2165 hai. Aur aap hi sirf wahan nahi dekh rahe hain. Lekin pahli chizen pahle. Kal, aakhirkar March future band ho gya aur taqriban market ka ek chautai "derail hua " tha. - 500 thousand open interest me se 102 thousand kal band ho gya. Pichli volume badi thi lekin maximum nahin. Isliiye zaruri hai keh yah kaise taqsim kiya gaya hai.



    Is tarah option ka trade kiya jata tha, aur taraqqi ke wabajood, put options hot cakes ki tah frokht ho jata tha. Moreover, OI me izafa bahut bada hai. 20th strike ke bare main kahna bahut jaldi hai, lekin yah 19th figure hai, lekin 1230 sabse jyada matloob hai aur isi trah 1,600 se zyada contracts ki ka izafa bhi hai, jin me se har ek ki qeemat 125 thousand dollars hai. Spot price 2,192 hai aur mujhe lagta hai keh ham wahan honge. Aaj, traqqi amli taur par daba hua hai- 2,359 toot gaya tha, lekin thin market me, volume aur consolidations ke begair. Lehaza, ise dobarah janchne aur matloob 2,374 par jane ki zarurat hogi. 2,394 ko zehan me rakhna zaruri hai (upper optional border ke zariye tootne par, 50p se muntaqil hona pasnad hai), lekin mazboot movement ke bad yah aam taur par ek flat ke sath khatm ho jata hai. 2317 obligatory ke taur par aur 2297 bottom ke taurr par hai. Din ke liye kaafi hai.



    Aur pichli "bullishness" sales ke sath balanced thi.


  9. #9
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    Assalam Aalikum! Mujhe lagta hai ki kal kisi ne bhi bhaut jyada funds ko nahi khoya. Agarcheh main haal me kafi masroof raha hun, abhi abhi thread padh raha hun: Mujhe lagta hai ki jyadatar log greenback farokht kar rahe the.
    Aaj ek naya din hai aur ham ise euro ke sath shuru karte hain. TST ke mutabiq, 1.2350 par oopri hadd par khuli thi. Iska matlab hai ki euro-dollar pair hadd ko tod sakti hai aur ooper ki taraf ja sakti hai aur yahi jori ne karna shuru kar diya hai. Taaham, 4 sabiq oopri hadd jo taqriban usi satah par hain mujhe confuse karti hain. Shayad, wo ab resistance ka kirdar ada krenge.
    Ek aur dilchasp bat yah keh 1.2291-1.2301 ka lazmi zone aur 1.2287 par balance ek doosre ke pas hain. Agar qeemat wahan pahunchti hai to, yah mere liye khariddari me dakhil hone ke liye himayat aur signal ban jayega.



    Pound lazmi zone ke bina ek dafe fir khula; Niche ki janib ek short-term reversal mumkin hai. Kal, sterling balance tak pahuncha, lekin fir isne 150 gain kiya, isliye growth ab band ho sakta hai.
    Farokht ke liye, aaj ka balance 1.4190 par farokht ke liye ek accha poin ho sakti hai. Taaham, aaj pound ke dynamic par nazar rakhni chahiye. Shayad main din ke bad ke hisson me apna man badlunga, isliye main abhi ke liye deals ko open karne se bachna chahunga.



    Australian dollar me thori girawat aayi, Lekin khabron par izafa hua aur lazmi zone aur oopri hadd ko breach kiya. Aaj, jori oopri hadd pa khuli, lekin ise todne ke bajaye, jori niche chali gayi.
    Aaj, balance 0.7670 par aakhri nichle satah se niche hai aur qeemat shayad hi us tak pahunch payegi. Meanwhile, 0.7711-0.7729 ka lazmi zone qarib hai aur main ise support ke taur par istemal karunga aur isse khariddari shuru karunga.


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  11. #10
    Senior Member Profit Man's Avatar
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    Pound ne ek buland wolf pattern banaya hai aur yahan iska workout hai..aur hadaf 44th hai. Shayad isi dar par, lekin agar yah uthaya jata hai, to yah sirf dollar ke haq me hai aur yah kisi bhi tarah mazboot ho jayega. False movement shayad cunning ko remove kar dega.…



    Aur wolf isi trah kaam karta hai. aur square abhi tak hasil nahi hua hai aur pound cunning hai, fouth point par do peaks fhenk diya gay. Pahla kaamyab ho gya tha, aur doosra 43th par hadaf dega.



    Aaj ke liye, ideal option (Wednesday ko mahaul me mazbooti se niche ki ijazat nahin di jayegi) 4095 par kal ke nichle satah par test karna aur 41th par wapas lautna hai. Mere bonus ke liye bhi aisa hi hai. Top par aham resistance 4120 aur 4160 par hai jis par momentum se glitz ya breakdawn hai. Bottom (abhi ke liye) 4073 hai. Main wahan zarur kharidunga.


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