methodology for analyzing the current market situation on the basis of cme reports

Aapko 1360 - 1345 se gole par deals open karna chahiye, lekin sirf agar aap un ke outcome ke bare mein yaqeen rakhte hai. Sirf is surat mein is wajah se frokht na kren ya is wajah se ki qeemat kisi hadd (be it resistance or 90% options stochastic or any other line) tak pahunch gyi hai. Jab app opposite direction mein trend dekhte hain, to bechen. Deals ko pehle se na open karen lekin jab sabhi haallaten taiyar ki jati hai !tab aur sirf tab open kren! Otherwise ham sab jante hai keh aap ko kya suffer karna padega. Jaldi ka kaam shaitan ka hota hai.

Yahi wajah hai ki experienced specialists ne retracements aur rujhaan ke sath farokht ki tajwiz ki hai, na keh rujhaan ke khilaaf jab koi trading channel index ek overbought zone mein dakhil hota hai tab.

Ab mere pas sirf do forecasts hain: ruble taqriban do hafton me niche jayega; aur crude oil, do mah me uper. Mere forecasts ko sirf abhi 1 hafte hue hai, sabar rakhhen.
Euro-Dollar ki jori ka naya hadaf 1205 hai.

CME reports ki bunyad par maujoodah market ki situation ka tajziyah karne ka tariqah.

Mujhe ek dafe fir se dohrane den, Mein aapki kharid/frokht mein shamil nhin hone ja raha hun, yah market mein dakhil hone wale har shaks ka zati maamlah hai. Is shaakh ke satha ek maslah hai, yahan sirf "successful traders" kaam karte hain, to aap in shaakhon par kyun chal rahen aur lapse kar rahe hain? :))) Yah aap ko kahan le jayega aur isse aap ko kya fayedah hota hai? kam se kam simple chizen seekhen. Chalo Friday ko hi lete hai. Ek bade trader kis trah paise hasil karte hai?



Lekin app yah sab tape aur glass ke zariye dekh sakte hain, jahan wo madad hasil karte hai, jahan wo limit ke sath rahte hain, jahan kamzor aur mazboot side hota hai. Yahan levels aur volumes action me hai. Jab ham CME aur CFTC par report dekhte hai, to taqriban ek hi chiz karte hai lekin bade paimane par, ham participants ke same prints ko dekhte hain aur unse ham apne saude lete hai.



Samjhen?) lehazah, jaisa keh Grandfather Lenin ne kaha, branches par chalne aur doosron ke sath galti talash karne ke bajaye taalim, taalim, aur taalim hasil karen.

Aaiye Euro futures ke specification ko dekhen. Ek futures contract 0.0001=$12.5. Futures contract ke option price ko yahan pips mein bayan kiya gya hai. Doosre alfaz mein, agar ek option price 0.0001 pips ke brabar hai, to is strike price par ek option contract $12.5 ke qabil hai. Agar hamen calculate karne ki zarurat hai ki ek certain strike price par options contracts mein kitna raqam invest kiya jata hai, to hamen ek pips ki qimat se pips mein premium ko guna karna chahiye aur number of contracts se by karna chahiye.

Ab mein kuch forum ke participants ko jawab dena chahta hun.

Hamen himayat aur muzahmat ki satah se trade karna chahiye. In sathon ke qarib, hamen order book aur market quotes ka stream dekhna chahiye. Exactly kya dekhna chahiye or kis tarah se? Internet par bhut sari chizen hain. Taaham, jab aap kuch mah ke liye is process ko dekhte hai, to is qism ke maharat sirf tajurbe se hasil hoti hai.

GBP/AUD jori break-even point pa gayi.

Qeemat uper ja rahi hai. Ek bada stop order muqarrar kiya gya hai or qeemat usmein chalti hai. Sabse pehle, qeemat 100 pips jyada hai aur fir 150 pips gains hai. Yah ek normal price development hai aur stop order munasib है. Digar scenario kam sazgar hai. Qeemat stop order me chalta hai, uper jane mei qasir hai. Isliye stop order gayab ho gya hai. Damn it!

Mutabadil scenario.Qeemat neeche ki taraf jata hai. Order book kamzor hai, lekin achanak qeematen badi harkat karti hai. Qeemat rukti hai, lekin order book kamzor bani hui hai, Yah ek iceberg order hai.

CME report ki bunyad par mauzoodah market ki surate haal ka tajziyah karne ka tariqah



EUR / USD ki report musalsal doosre din shandar hai- MaxPain points majbooti se top par baitha hai, halankeh, wave analysis indicate karta hai ki ham niche abcH4 wave me hain, aH4 wave pass ho chuka hai, aur bH4 ki wave mukammal ki ja rahi hai, habkeh niche dD1 wave pehle hi ho chuki hai. Ek waqt ki bat hai ek traders ne H4 trend ke khilaf nahin jane ke liya khabardar kiya tha. Wah sau feesad sahih hai, taaham us ne kabhi - kabhar rule ko break kiya hai).

Chizon ko aasaan banane ke liye, tab jab qeemat balance ke aas pass ruk jati hai, to yahan teeth-grinding shuru hota hai :))) kyon? Ji han, kyonki wo is balance ke qareeb transaction karte hain) Lekin jab qeemat sarhadon par hoti hain, jhan aap sauda lene ki zarurat hoti hai, kisi ko whan se dilchaspi nhi hai, lekin.... qeemat chala gya hai, isliye wo forum par, aam taur par, usi scenarion me, guilty parties ki talash mein jate hai))))


Aksar side se deal lene ki shifarish ki gyi thi, aap jitna balance par sahi sochte hai band karen, aur baqi ko breakeven bindu par muntaqil karen aur bhool jayen. Fir tab tak sirf intezar karen jab tak qeemat fir se border par nahi aati hai.

EUR/USD jori ke bare me bat ho rahi hai, maine avi tak options sentiment ka tajziyah nahi kiya hai. Taaham, main futures chart aur iske volatility ke apne tajziya ko share karne ke liye taiyar hun. 1- mah ke chart ko dekhte hue, chart ne ibtedai trading din me lahar ka zawal dikhaya. Zahir hai, kisi ne long positions ko band kar diya. Fir, bad ke minton main kisi ne fir se jori kharida aur lahar ko thora buland kiya. Ham 5 minutes ke chart par lahar ki peak dekhte hai.

Ham kya conclusion nikal sakte hain? Flat range (1.2163) ki nichli sarhar ke khilafwazi ke sath 1 March ko qeemat ki rally shuru hui thi. Is lahar ha rawaiya natije ke liye acchi wajah hai keh jori ek flat range (1.2554) ki oopri sarhad par target level ke sath apni raili ko extend kar sakti hai, jo medium-term resistance bhi hai. Rally ko 1.2445 par ek rukawat se mil sakti hai jo moqami mazahmat ke taur par kam karti hai. Lahar ki ucchal ko dekhte hue, main is scenario ki salah deta hun ki ahar haalat aaj radically tabdil nahi hoti hai to is satah ko kam az kam test kiya ja sakta hai. Brave scenario local resistance ki satah ki khilafwarzi aur 1.2554 ke liye mazeed chadhai hai. Yah aaj ke liye mera nuqtah nazar hai. Forewarned is forearmed.

The Aussie

Mujhe Australian dollar ke bare me kuch alfaz kahne den. Pichle hafta maine note kiya ki market uncernet tha.
Lehaza, main sirf alternative scenarios ke liye intezar kar sakta tha. Taaham, un scenariyo ko sach hone ke liye majboor nahin kiya gya tha kyonkeh wo haqiqi deta par mabni nahin the aur taiyar kiye gaye the. Taaham, mere pas market se bahar nikalne ka mauka tha.
Tab se kya tabdil hua hai? darasal, bahut kuch badal gya hai! CFTC reverse ho gya aur yah down-oriented hai. Iske bad, speculators ne apne sell trades ki meqdar me izafa kya.



Option market par jazbat ke bare me bat karte hue, selling pressure 0.76 ke long-awaited level ki janib qeemat ki qyadat kar sakta hai. Iska kya matlab hai? iska matlab kam se kam islahat ka imkan. 0.76 ke is satah ke bare me kya unusual hai? aaiye chart par dekhen. Ham dekhte hain ki qeemat upward channel me hai aur last correction level 78.6% Fibonacc par tha.



Jaisa ke maujoodah islah ke dauran ham ne pehle hi 61.8% Fibonacci pass ki hai, ham 78.6% ki janib badh rahe hai jo 0.7628 ke qarib waqe hai.



Aham bat yah hai ki iaka matlab ye nahi hai ki qeemat is tak pahunchne ke bad is satah se ulat jayegi, aur na hi yah ishara karta hai ki qeemat mazeed badh jayegi. Yah satah sirf ek taweel arse se mutawaqqe maqsad hai.

Khair, euro aur pound kam ho gya hai, to kya? jaisa keh sterling ke liye, jab tajziya karon ne girawat ki tawaqqo ki thi, yah 400 pips badha aur ab British currency ne in 400 pips ko kho diye hain aur 100 pips se thori kam ho gyi. Euro ke liye bhi aisa hi hai: jab girawat ki ummid ki gyi thi, single European currency 200 se badha, fir yah in 200 pips se kam ho gya aur 120 pips se niche chala gaya.

To bat kya hai? ek bat yah ki market me kya ho raha hai; aur doosri bat yah hai keh deals me kab dakhil hona hai.

Shayad, koi 400 pips ke bad bhi qimat reversal ka intezar kar sakta hai, lekin mere liye - aur bahut se doosre logon ke liye, mera yaqin hai keh yah bahut jyada hai. Iske ilawa, 200 - 400 pips kam se kam short-term trend ke liye stand karte hain.

Yah chart hai jahan Australian dollar ke liye contract capitalization, levels, aur buyers/sellers ratio dikhaya jata hai:



Jab yah figure 10 se kam hota hai, to mujhe sirf tab kharidna hoga, pahle nahin. Is trah ki taswir 30 April ko dikhai di, ikhtetam 7527 par tha, jiska matlab hai keh mujhe 1 may ko kam se kam 7550 se kharidna shuru karna chahiye tha, is se pahle nahin. Lekin main bahut short-tempered hun aur 76 se kharidna shurur kar diya.



Agar qimat kam hoti hai, to khariddari bhi kam honi chahiye. Absolute bottom 74 par hai.
Yah mere liye bilkul wazeh hai ki market participants actively AUD kharid rahe hain. Baqi ise qn nahin dekhte hain - yah mere liye wazeh nahin hai.
Kal, euro ne signal generate kiya, yahi wajah hai keh main 1.19-1.1950 ki range me euro ke kharid ki peshgoi karta haun.

Pound

1.353 ki satah jiski pahle hi shinakht ki gayi thi hamne perform kiya



Ab kya? maujoodah contract par, jane ke liye ab koi rasta nahin bacha hai. Aaj khatm ho raha hai, aur taqriban 1.37 tak ek pullback mumkin hai.June ke liye, bunyadi taur par, aage jane ke liye ab koi rasta nahin bacha hai, aur optional stochastic resold kiya gya hai:



Lekin jaisa keh hamen yaad hai, oversold zone me iski location mandi ke rujhan ki maujoodgi ki nishandahi karta hai, aur iska abhi tak kuch matlab nahin hai - stochastic line niche ishara kar raha hai. Aam taur par, aane wala agla satah 1.33 hai. Isliye shayad ek pullback ke bad ham iske pas jaynge. Khair, baqi aap jante hain

60 minutes se jyada cluster chart par dekhne ka koi matlab nahin hai, kyonkeh sab kuch bilkul nazar aata hai. Agar aap euro aur dollar se door rahen or entire foreign exchange market ko dekhen. Hmare pas kya hai? aussie, yen, loonie, franc, aur euro badh rahe hain, pound abhi bhi musibat me hai. Traders report ke commitment ke mutabiq, Swiss franc aur Australian dollar musalsal tezi se badh rahe hai, loonie 80 percent se badh raha hai, baqi sabhi kamzor hain. Dollar index ke liye, hedgers ke pas taqriban koi positions nahin hai, assets aur leverages oppsite directions (mjhe yad nahi hai keh kon kharid aur kon farokht me hai) me muntashar ho gye hai taqriban same positions ke sath, lehaza ise kisi bhi simt me pull karne me koi masla nahin hai. Lekin aham currencies ko dekhte hue yah wazeh hai keh ise niche pull karna zaruri hoga, mere liye yah wazeh hai. Euro ke liye, main is satah ko allocate karunga.

Pound. Long-term strategy. Ham 1,3376 ke mark ke qarib aa rahe hai, jahan Central Bank ke char contracts ko 10 figures ki raqam me profit milega, aur maine January iske bare me bat ki thi. Ab, agar bankers earned money ko fix karne ka faisla karte hain, to pound ko upward momentum hasil hogi, jo top contract ka test karne ke liye 40th figure tak ke pullback ki wajah banega. Lekin, agar wo ise girawat jari rakhne ke liye fayedamand manta hai, to Central Bank ke aakhri contract par focus karte hue, target pahle hi 1.2617 ka satah hoga. Mujhe ummid hai keh ab aap dekh sakte hain keh market me boss kon hai? :)

Assalam Alaikum!
1.1651 ki stah, jis ko muqami support samjha jata tha, asal me 25 June se wide spread ke sath fi ghntawar chart ka pivot point hai. Yah 1.1631 par nayi range ki lower boundary tak chalta hai. Aapko ise nazar andaz nahin karna chahiye kyonkeh bullish sargarmi me izafa hua tha. Is zone ka abhi test kiya ja raha hai. Kuch buyers hai, lekin uski activity moderate hai. Pre-European trades is soorat haal ko wazeh karega. Main 1.1631 aur 1.1630 par support ki talash me maujoodah sathon se kharidne ki shifarish nahin karta hun. Stop orders ko trigger karne ke liye stop bikul munasib hai, lehaza door rahen. Behtar hoga keh aap farokht ke liye dekhen. Agar aap khariddari par israr karte hain to, fit 1.1588 par khain bhi deals ko open karen (lekin main abhi bhi iske khilaf hun).
Maaf karen agar main wazeh nahin tha! Maine ise mukhtasar karne ki koshish ki.

1.3113 ke satah ke niche, maine Fractal ZigZag se farokht ko band kar diya, tamam farokht, jispar August option pahunch sakta hai. Natije ke taur par ham kya dekhte hain? ji han, ek bullish wave qayam ki gayi hai. Aur 1.3113 ke satah ko kya aham banata hai? target level se test ko chor kar kuch bhi nahin hai, jise exchange ke zariye work out kiya gya hai. Aur agar aisa hai, to yhan long position par paisa hai...Kal, zarurii reversal Fractal ZigZag 1.3144 ke zariye se qayam ki gyi thi. Jaisa keh do bullish Fractal ZigZags hai, to stop force-majeure hain.
Main max pain par na sirf attack ki taiyari kar raha hun. Tab tak hamen upward movement ka hadaf muqarrar karna hoga, aur iske liye, maujooda aur agle muhaide ke oopri ahdaf ko calculate kiya jana chahiye.