methodology for analyzing the current market situation on the basis of cme reports

Aaj yah inkeshaf kiya gya tha keh Russia ne taqriban apne Americi khazane ke holding ko liquidate kar diya hai. Isne dosra transaction anjam diya, aur holdings taqriban 14.9 ke sifar satah tak gir gya (Americi Treasury ek mahine ke deri ke sath report fraham karta hai).

Mujhe yaad dilana chahiye keh saal ke aaghaz me Russia ke Americi khazane ki holdings 100 ke satah par thi.
Waise, Japan aur china ne Americi khazane ko farokht nahin kiya, balkeh unhen kharida.
Is trah, Russia paise ki kami se guzarta hai.

Khair, sabse pahle ham COT reports ka tajziyah karna shuru karte hain jo keh doolar index hai.



Dollar index ke liye hedgers ke sab se zyada kharidari ka ilaqa 2-10 fisad hai, jis par woh aage badh rahe hain. Lehaza, dollar gir jayega jab tak keh hedgers ki positions namzad kardah iqdar tak pahunch nahin jati, lehaza hamein dollar farokht karna chahiye. Ab aaiye baqi currencies par gaur karte hain, jiska zikar kal nahin kiya gaya tha.

Bartanwi pound.



Pound futures ke liye hedgers ke sabse zyada kharidari ka ilaqa 65-71 fisad hai. Lekin pichle sal April aur December me kharidari karte waqt woh 44-48 fisad par ruk gaye. Is sal ke wast me in qimaton ke qarib pahunchne par, piche Mangal ke data ke mutabiq maujudah qimat 40 fisad hai. Pound September ke sahmahi contract samet Futures contracts ke nichle satah ke qarib pahuncha, jo ab aham hai. Lehaza maine buy deals open kiye. Dollar niche hain, jabkeh pound ka support kiya ja raha hai.

Australian dollar.



Suratehal pound ki tarah hi hai. Hedgers maximum values tak pahunch gaye, aur Australian dollar quarterly September futures contract ke battom ke qarib pahunch gaya. Lehaza maine nichli satah se kharidari ki. Aur ham tab tak buy deals rakh sakte hain jab tak keh hedgers ki position farokht tak 49-61 fisad se gir nahin jati hai.

Swiss franc.



Haqiqat yah hai keh Swiss franc par ek sal se zyada arse se ek debt tha, har kisi ko wazeh tha jo COT reports ke bare me har chiz janta hai. Baqi ka rujhan ooper ki taraf tha. Swiss franc ke liye hedger ke sabse zyada farokht ka ilaqa -11-20 ke barabar hai. Jab tak ham wahan nahin pahunchte hain, tab tak ham USD/CHF jori ke liye farokht rakh sakte hain.

Ab aaiye aage ke point ki taraf badhte hain. Medium-term trading ke liye, 10 yab 20 points matter nahin karta hai. Agar ham tawil arse ke liye aur acchi movement ki salahiyat ke sath kisi deal ko open karte hain to durustagi ki zarurat nahin hai.

COT reports ke tajziyah ke mutabiq, mujhe kal se currency movements me koi tabdili nahin dikh rahi hai. Wahid currency jisne kuch tabdiliyan zahir ki thin woh Bartanwi pound tha, jo un satahon tak pahunch gayi jahan hedgers ne kharid saude khole jabkeh speculators ne pahle hi sell deals place kiye.



Iske bad, pound sterling 1.33 se ooper badh gaya. Abhi ke liye, currency futures ne koi tabdili nahin dikhayi hai. Sath hi, commodities ke sath suratehal zyada dilchasp hai. Hedgers ne corn futures par farokht ki meqdar me izafa kiya hai, lekin ab tak aham satahon ki wazahat karna mushkil hai.



Wheat futures par bhi yahi lagu hota hai.



Misali taur par, mujhe 3 sal ki qimat ki tarikh par mabni chart ki zarurat hai, kiyunkeh maujudah aidad shumar ke sath kaledi satahon ko dekhna mushkil hai. Maine pahle hi $132 par beef futures kharidne ka mauqa miss kar diya hai. Lekin mein ummid karta hun keh mustaqbil me mazid mawaqe milenge kiyunkeh market ka wajud khatm nahin hoga. Trade kholne me jaldbazi karne aur bad me afsos karne ke bajaye dubara sochna aur mutwazan faisla karna behtar hai. Lehaza, susti na kren, aur 2-3 sal ki tarikh ki buniyad par chart plot karen.
Currencies par futures contracts ke bare me bat karte hue, mujhe kahna chahiye keh wo kabhi-kabhi false signals fraham kar sakte hain. Aise contracts ki madad se wazahat karda satah guide ke nishan ke taur par kam karte hain, lekin targets ke taur par nahin. Euro ke liye, mujhe lagta hai keh downward scenario jald hi invalid ho jayega, kiyunkeh hamne ek tawil girawat dekhi hai. Halankeh yah Aagust ke option contract ka sirf pahla hafta hai, yah waqai tawil nahin hai.



Mujhe ummid hai keh Euro maujudah contract ke oopri satah tah rverse karega. Waqt guzar raha hai.

Euro option contract ke top par chala gaya hai. Is se islah ho sakti hai.



Mujhe nahin malum ke islah kin satahon tak rahega. Mai euro ko follow nahin karta, kiyunkeh instrument dead hai aur trading ke liye mauzun nahin hai. Mujhe kuch aisa trade karne ki zarurat hai jo move karta ho. Jahan tak instrument ki baat hai jo rozana 50 pips guzarta hai, mai ise nazar andaz karne ko tarjih deta hun. Mere khayal me darmiyani aur tawil muddat me aisi sust currencies ka karobar karna behtar hai. Woh intraday trading ke liye munasib nahin hai. Mujhe 1.10 tak islah ki tawaqqo hai, lekin mai yaqini nahin hun. Jahan tak wajah ki baat hai, mai yaqini taur par nahin kah sakta. Ek instrument sirf tabhi badh sakta hab use kharida ja raha ho. Usi tarah, yah gir sakti hai agar ise farokht kiya ja raha ho. Lehaza, buniyadi wajuhat ki talash karne ka koi matlab nahin hai. Halanke, movement shuru hone se pahle wajuhat par discuss karna mufid hai, aur movement shuru hone ke bad wajuhat par discuss karne ka koi matlab nahin hai. Lehaza kal ka karobar kamyab nahin raha, kiyunkeh hamne waqt par instrument ke imkanat aur salahiyat ka andaza nahin kiya. Ab mai sare instruments ki janch nahin karta hun. Iske alawa, mai markazi bank ke sarbarah ke alawa, ohdedaron aur policy sazon ki taqarir par khususi tawajjoh nahin deta hun. Mujhe un par aitemad nahin hai. Jahan tak yen ki bat hai, USD/JPY jodi ko farokht karna ridiculous hai. Mujhe iske sath koi farokht nazar nahin aa rahi hai. Yah jodi abhi tak option contract ke top par nahin pahuncha hai, jo keh 109.20 par waqe hai.



Maujudah muhaide ki miyad khatm hone me abhi do hafte baqi hain. Aur agar yah jodi apne high ke qarib ek aur hafta rahti hai, yani taqriban 109 par, to agle December ke option contract ka high zyada ho jayega:



Abhi ke liye, hamein is jagah ko nichana banane aur kharidariyon ke liye tamam pullback ka istemal karne ki zarurat hai. Jaisa keh chart par dikhaya gaya hai, agar koi islah hoti hai to, yah 107.20-107.40 tak chalegi, niche ka imkan kam hai. Ham sirf andaza laga sakte hain. Lehaza, trading ka koi matlab nahin hai. Mushkilat fifty-fifty hai. Iske alawa, aaiye Australian Dollar ke sath suratehal par gaur karen.



Mujhe aisi jagahon par kharidari ki bat samajh nahin aa rahi hai, jo maujudah option contract ke high par hai. Yahan tak keh agar qimat badh jati hai to bhi iski kya salahiyat hai? Zero, kuch darjan pips aur bas itna hi. To kya baat hai ????? !!!!