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Mauzo: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

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    Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

    Date : 13th July 2020.

    Events to Look Out for This Week.

    An interesting week is coming up, packed with economic data and political developments, as next weeks EU summit highlights that the EUR 750 bln recovery fund proposed by the European Commission remains controversial in its proposed form, and remains far from certain. Attention will remain on virus reports and on the monetary policy meetings in the worlds major economies (ECB, BoJ and BoC) and their potential for guidance regarding future stimulus actions.

    .Monday 13 July 2020

    BoEs Governor Bailey speech (USD, GMT 15:30) In Junes meeting, the BoE voted unanimously to keep rates unchanged, but a 8-1 majority opted for an extension of the asset purchase target by GBP 100 bln to now GBP 745 bln. The overall tone of the assessment seemed less gloomy than the sharp contraction in monthly GDP had suggested. This speech could clear the view of further stimulus and the reports that the BoE has been talking with commercial banks to prepare them for the possibility of negative interest rates.

    Tuesday 14 July 2020

    Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (EUR, GMT 06:00) The German HICP inflation for June is anticipated to decline at 0.5% y/y from 0.8% y/y.

    Gross Domestic Product (GBP, GMT 06:00) GDP is the economys most important figure. Aprils GDP was contracted to -20.4% m/m.

    ECB Bank Lending Survey (EUR, GMT 08:00) The bank lending survey (BLS) for the euro area was launched in 2003. Its main objective is to enhance the Eurosystems knowledge of financing conditions in the euro area.

    Economic Sentiment (EUR, GMT 09:00) German July ZEW economic sentiment is expected to have declined at 60.0 compared to 63.4 in June.

    Consumer Price Index (USD, GMT 12:30) The headline CPI for June is expected with a 0.1% core price rate, following May declines of -0.1% for both. The headline will be boosted by an estimated 13% June pop for CPI gasoline prices. As-expected June figures would result in a headline y/y increase of 0.6%, up from 0.1% in May. Core prices should sit a 1.0% y/y rise, below the 1.2% y/y pace last month.

    SNBs Chairman Jordan speech (CHF, GMT 13:30)

    Wednesday 15 July 2020

    BoJ Interest Rate Decision and Conference (JPY, GMT 03:00- 06:00) Shadowed by Covid-19, the BoJ has less room for monetary policy manoeuvre, with Japan not depending on foreign investment inflows to sustain financing and with Japanese investors apt during times of risk aversion in global markets to repatriate capital from the sale of foreign assets, and/or put on currency hedges on foreign assets.

    Consumer Price Index and Retail Sales (GBP, GMT 06:00) Prices are expected to have eased in June, with overall inflation expected to stand unchanged at 0.5% y/y, and core at 1.3% from 1.2% y/y last month. UK retail sales expected to grow slightly to 0.1% in June.

    BoC Interest Rate Decision and Conference (CAD, GMT 14:00- 15:00) Bank of Canada expected to maintain the 0.25% rate setting. However, since in the latest announcement the Bank maintained its commitment to continue large-scale asset purchases until the economic recovery is well underway, this is expected to be seen again this time.

    Thursday 16 July 2020

    Employment Data (AUD, GMT 01:30) Both the unemployment rate and the employment change are expected to have grown in June.

    Gross Domestic Product (CNY, GMT 02:00) GDP is the economys most important figure. Q2s GDP is expected to be dropped to -9.9% q/q contraction from -9.8%q/q.
    Average Earnings (GBP, GMT 06:00) Average Earnings excluding bonus are expected to have grown by 1.4% in May. The ILO unemployment rate is expected to have risen at 4.7% from 3.9%.

    ECB Interest Rate Decision and Press Conference (EUR, GMT 11:45 & 12:30) So far the ECB seems to have been united behind the goal to provide financial market stability through the crisis as lockdowns not just across Europe plunged economies into deep recessions.
    However, hectic diplomacy ahead of EU summit highlights that the EUR 750 bln recovery fund proposed by the European Commission remains controversial in its proposed form, and remains far from certain. At the same time, there is a new rifts emerging at the ECB not just over the need to use the full PEPP envelope, but also over the future of the inflation target. Virus headlines have distracted from the fact that the ECB is currently in the process of conducting a thorough review of its overall strategy and that also involved the definition of price stability, which currently still is set as below but close to 2%. In the current situation that would mean the central bank would leave expansionary policy measures in place longer than necessary to bring inflation back to the 2% target.

    Retail Sales (USD, GMT 12:30) June increases are expected at 6.0% for headline retail sales and 6.7% for the ex-auto figure, following May increases of 17.7% for the headline and 12.4% ex-autos.

    Friday 17 July 2020

    EU Leaders Special Summit.

    Consumer Price Index (EUR, GMT 09:00) The final Euro Area CPI for June is anticipated to slow down to 0.1% y/y from 0.3%y/y last month. The core inflation is seen at 0.9% y/y from 0.8% y/y.

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