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Mauzo: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

  1. #191
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    Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

    Date : 10th January 2020.

    FX Update JPY Weak & NFP Preview10th January 2020.




    USDJPY, H1
    The Yen posted fresh lows as global stock markets hit new record highs, (APPLE, the worlds largest company, moved up over 2% to $308 following good iPhone sales in China) while the likes of the Australian Dollar and many developing-nation currencies rallied. USDJPY, now in its fifth consecutive up day, printed a fresh two-week high at 107.60, which is just 12 pips shy of the seven-month high that was seen in early December. A close over 109.50 today would suggest more upside for the pair next week. AUDJPY lifted to a five-day high and was the best performing pair, moving 0.33% and holding over 75.25, having topped at 75.41 and rolled over from its overbought condition at the London open. EURJPY also rose to an eight-day high.



    In stock markets, the MSCI All-Country World Index hit a new record high today, which followed the record highs that the three main US indices and the pan-Europe Stoxx 600 Equity Index saw yesterday. Oil prices remained heavy, some 11% down on the high seen just a couple of days ago, with the US and Iran having stepped back from the cliff edge. News that iPhone sales in China rose 18% y/y in December gave tech stocks a boost, while also boding well for US-Sino relations, with Chinas Vice Premier Liu, head of Beijings trade negotiation team, travelling to Washington next week to sign the phase-1 trade deal with the US.



    Elsewhere in the forex markets, the Dollar has traded mixed, leaving the narrow trade-weighted USDIndex (DXY) net unchanged. EURUSD remained settled in a narrow range near 1.1100. The Dollar lost ground to the Australian currency, with AUDUSD lifting to a two-day high at 0.6882 in what is the pairs first up day of the year so far. Cable remained below the 1.3100 level, while USDCAD settled just above 1.3050, below the two-week high seen yesterday at 1.3104.



    The release of the US December employment report will be a major focus for markets today. Expectations from the monthly Reuters poll have the median increase for NFP set at 164k with a range extending from 125k 2266k. However, there is potential downside risk from weak producer sentiment, the rise in claims through the holiday period, and a lean ADP jobs path, even though Wednesdays number was a significant beat at 202K versus expectations of 150k.


    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.



    Stuart Cowell
    Head Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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  3. #192
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    Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

    Date : 13th January 2020.

    FX Update January 13 Sterling Stressed 13th January 2020.




    GBPUSD, H1

    Sterling has taken a turn lower in early week trading, with markets reacting to both dovish BoE-speak and to a report from the UKs Institute for Government finding that it will be impossible to deliver the computer systems for the special arrangements for Northern Irelands border by the end of the year. Prime Minister Johnson has pledged, and worked into the Withdrawal Agreement legislation, to leave the post-Brexit transition period by the end of the year, hence the negative reaction by markets. Irelands deputy Prime Minister Coveney also said that forming a new trade deal between the EU and UK is probably going to take longer than a year. Member of the BoEs Monetary Policy Committee Vlieghe, meanwhile, said in the FT over the weekend that he is ready to cut rates if data doesnt improve, similar to the view expressed by governor Carney last week. Cable has dropped nearly 0.5% in printing a 17-day low at 1.29845, while EURGBP has risen by a similar magnitude in making a 17-day peak at 0.8560. However, the biggest mover has been GBPAUD down some 0.55% and trades blow 1.8800 once again.





    Elsewhere, EURUSD has lifted above its Friday high in making 1.1132 in a move driven by moderate Euro outperformance. EURJPY has posted a two-week high at 122.05, while EURCHF and other Euro crosses have also seen gains. The Yen remained on a generally weak footing as Asias MSCI Asia-Pacific index hit a new 19-month high with investors anticipating Wednesdays signing of the US-China phase-1 trade deal. USDJPY was buoyant, though remained below Fridays 18-day high at 109.68, and could not close the weak over 109.50, strong resistance sits at 109.70. AUDJPY posted a fresh 10-day peak. AUDUSD posted a six-day peak. Liquidity was below par in Asia with Japanese markets closed for a public holiday. The US-China trade deal will be a major focus this week as the details havent been made public, a reported 86-page document is to be signed and questions remain over Chinese compliance and their ability to actually fulfill their obligations and from the US side, their willingness to reimpose tariffs in an election year.

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.



    Stuart Cowell
    Head Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

  4. #193
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    Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

    Date : 14th January 2020.

    Optimism pressures Safe Havens while Crypto rallies




    Optimism pressures Safe Havens while Crypto rallies A fresh injection of risk-on trading saw the Yen decline further and stocks rally overnight after trade data out of China showed a drop in exports to the US last year.



    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

  5. #194
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    Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

    Date : 15th January 2020.

    GOLDMAN SACHS and the 4th Quarter of 2019 15th January 2020.




    As Earnings season is kicking off again, focus is on the Banks reports this week. JP Morgan, City Group and Wells Fargo published their Q4 2019 reports yesterday before the US market open. JP Morgan and City Group beat expectations strongly, whilst Walls Fargo missed and saw its shares falling over 4% right after the report.

    Today, investors attention is on whether Bank of America and GS will follow JP Morgans success story.

    Goldman Sachs is scheduled to release its Q4 and full-year 2019 results before the US market open. In Q3 2019, the bank beat revenue forecasts but missed in earnings, while it posted a decline in Revenue and earnings in comparison with the previous quarter, affected by weakness seen in Investment Banking and Lending. Overall, in the past 2 years it has beaten earning and revenue estimations 88% of the time.

    GS , in an attempt to improve its profitability and stock performance, has proceeded with several changes and several restructure and expansion plans for the near future and also the next 5 years. One of their latest projects, which was launched in August, was the development of credit cards with Apple, while they also introduced a long-awaited app last week (January 8), which according to Reuters, will integrate with the financial giants digital bank, Marcus. Marcus is Goldman Sachss consumer banking unit, which was founded by Goldman Sachs in 2016, named after the banks founder Marcus Goldman.

    In the long term meanwhile, GS has focused on its request to the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC). As the China Morning Post stated, GS is one of the US banks which has an official branch in China and has been applying to the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) since last August to take majority control of its venture known as Goldman Sachs Gao Hua Securities, seeking to raise its stake to 51% from 33%. The hiring push on the mainland is part of the US banks new five-year plan in which Chief Executive David Solomon is looking to improve its profitability and share price performance.

    It will be interesting to see whether all the above expansion plans will affect the banks earnings report today, but also how they could expand its wealth management business and broaden its revenue streams in 2020.

    Zacks estimates for Q4 Earnings are:

    EPS Estimate: $5.20

    Sales Estimates:

    * Low: 8.70B
    * High: 8.82B
    * Year over Year Growth: 8.37%

    Earnings Estimates:

    * Low: $4.54
    * High: $5.42
    * Year over Year Growth: -13.91%

    Technical overview:

    The monthly chart shows the free fall seen on GS shares in 2018 to $151.60 from its all-time high in March 2018 at $275.60. In 2019, shares managed to recover by nearly 78%, as the price moved successfully to $274.64.



    However, in the Daily chart, momentum indicators suggest that positive bias is starting to lose some ground , with OBV indicator unable to move further to the upside, suggesting nearterm weakness. The asset price is still moving upwards, however its moving outside the upper Bollinger Bands area, with RSI crossing above 70, both suggesting that the asset looks overbought. This comes in line with OBV. Hence from a technical perspective a correction could be seen in the medium term as the asset is overbought. From the data perspective, positive bias could theoretically strengthen if the upcoming earnings report beats expectations.

    Resistance levels: $249, $261, $275

    Support levels: $236, $227, $214




    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


    Ahura Chalki
    Regional Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

  6. #195
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    Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

    Date : 16th January 2020.

    Narrow US trade gap in Q4 Its meaning and what to expect in 2020? 16th January 2020.




    A drop in the bilateral trade deficit between the US and China in Q4 sharply understates the underlying improvement, thanks to a powerful seasonal pattern in goods trade between the two countries that bloated the Q4 deficit. A plunge is anticipated in the gap to a February trough that should mark the narrowest deficit since 2013.

    Though the overall US trade gap will widen in 2020 if the economy grows, phase-one agreement will be followed by news over the coming three months of a collapsing US-China trade deficit.

    The US-China trade deficit for goods narrowed sharply last winter to just $20.7 bln in March of 2019 from a peak of $43.1 bln in October of 2018, with a gyration that was exacerbated by tariff front running.

    The seasonal widening into Q4 of 2019 failed to occur, while a seasonal narrowing is expected into the Lunar New Year that should prompt a February goods deficit in the $20 bln area less than half of the peak just 16 months earlier.



    The seasonal pattern is mostly driven by the US import data from China. The unusually large gyration in 2018 was due to tariff front running, which pulled imports ahead into Q4 from Q1. Goods imports appeared to resume their seasonal climb until they reached a $41.5 bln level in July of 2019, leaving an -11.9% shortfall from July of 2018. From their, the seasonal climb oddly ended, and imports fell to just $36.5 bln in November to leave a y/y drop of an enormous -21.6%.

    If the seasonal drop now unfolds, imports from China should fall to the $28 bln area by February. The drop will be exacerbated this year by a relatively early Lunar New Year date of January 25.

    The seasonal pattern for imports has been quite stable over the years, until the big deviation in the pattern in 2019, which suggests that the atypical seasonal behavior this year is due to the trade war.

    The seasonal pattern is less stable, and less pronounced, for US goods exports to China, and the pattern of US exports has been fairly erratic over the last year. The dominant pattern over the past two years has been a drop in US exports to China between the start of the trade war in early 2018 to a trough in January of 2019, before largely stabilizing since then.The fact that Chinese policymakers cut all unnecessary trade with the US over this period, leaves little room for further cuts through 2019 and into 2020.



    Beyond the trade war, there have been two other major patterns in the US trade data that will likely have the effect of narrowing the US-China bilateral trade deficit over the coming year. One is the depressing effect on US exports from the 737 MAX grounding since March of 2019, leaving a likely dramatic rebound over the year following the lifting of the FAA ban presumably later this year. The other major pattern is the steep climb in US exports of petroleum products, as the Permian Basin is rapidly transforming into a major export center thanks to ongoing innovations in pressurized and lateral drilling.



    The seasonal patterns are expected to allow a deficit to return for the last time between December and April, before the US becomes a permanent net petroleum exporter. China is dependent on petroleum imports, and hence it is anticipated that US exporters capture more of this market over the coming years, especially given that the phase-one deal involves a shift in Chinese purchases toward US commodities.

    The combination of a narrowing US-China trade deficit, strength in US exports of petroleum-related products, and an assumed Boeing-led surge in capital goods exports at some point this year, may all suggest a narrowing US trade gap.

    Hence to be sure, as the trade gap declined to the lowest during Donald Trump presidency, will add to GDP if not in the long term definitely in the near term, possible during February-March with help from the Chinese New Year and Phase-1 deal.

    Overall however, a US GDP growth out-performance versus other countries in 2020 is anticipated, and a firm Dollar with strong capital account inflows, that should fuel a widening trade deficit through the year despite the narrowing bilateral gap with China.

    [IMG][/IMG]

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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  8. #196
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    Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

    Date : 17th January 2020.

    Positive bias on the back of US & Chinese Data 17th January 2020.




    Positive bias on the back of US & Chinese Data Sentiment was supported by robust US retail sales on Thursday, ongoing good will following the Phase One trade deal and good earnings data, despite the slowdown of Chinese GDP growth to the lowest in 29 years.

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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