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Mauzo: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

  1. #231
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    Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

    Date : 18th March 2020.

    FX Update March 18 King Dollar 18th March 2020




    The Dollar has remained firm amid nervous global markets, with demand for cash dollars remaining high while some traditional safe haven assets, such as gold and US Treasuries, have nonetheless remained under pressure as investors rebalance portfolios and build cash cushions to cover margin calls. US bonds have been falling despite the Fed buying up to $40 bln worth daily in its revamped QE program. Some market narratives are also pointing to concerns about the US fiscal position light of the US governments announcement for a $1.2 tln stimulus package. Gold prices are down 1.5%, though remain off the three-and-a-half-month low seen on Monday. Stock markets turned lower during the Asian session and opened in Europe down some 3-4%.



    In currencies, movements have been relatively contained so far today. The Yen has outperformed, though concurrent Dollar strength has seen USDJPY lift back above 107.00 from a 106.76 low. The commodity and most developing world currencies remained under pressure. AUDJPY declined by over 1%, and has breached the 11-year low seen yesterday, trading at S1 63.80. AUDUSD remained heavy, also breaching the 17-year low seen yesterday at 0.5960, it trades at 0.5936. NZDUSD printed a fresh 11-year low at 0.5911. USDCAD, amid its biggest monthly gain since January 2015, remained buoyant but still held below the four-year high seen yesterday at 1.4276.



    USOil prices hit a new major-trend low at $25.50, which is the lowest nominal level traded since May 2003. EURUSD ebbed back under 1.1000, but has so far remained shy of the three-week low seen yesterday at 1.0956. Regarding the coronavirus, there are concerns that the massive global fiscal and monetary stimulus measures, even when targeted well, will simply not be able to fully mitigate the impact of draconian lockdowns in an increasing number of economies.


    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


    Stuart Cowell
    Head Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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  4. #232
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    Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

    Date : 20th March 2020.

    European FX Update 20 March 2020 20th March 2020




    Interventions and the threat of interventions has seen the dollar soften while commodity and many developing world currencies have rebounded strongly following a period of pronounced underperformance. Also in the mix is the plethora of central bank actions to shore up liquidity and loosen monetary policy, along with the massive fiscal rescue packages being assembled by governments across the world, which have given markets opportunity to settle from coronavirus anxiety. Russia and Brazil have intervened in forex markets over the last day, buying their domestic currencies and selling dollars. The Russian ruble crashed by over 34% from early January levels before the Russian central bank stepped in yesterday. The Norwegian central bank also threatened to intervene yesterday following a similar 30%-odd dive the crown. South Africa and Australia have also signalled readiness to intervene to support their currencies. For many countries with borrowings in dollars, the massive depreciation in their domestic currencies, and strength in the dollar, has been increasingly threatening at a time when most emerging market and developed-world economies are either headed to or are already in recession. There is rising odds for coordinated action to blunt dollar strength. Demand of cash dollars has been intense in recent weeks due to the funds need to cover losses and meet fund redemptions.



    Among the main currencies today, the narrow trade-weighted dollar index (DXY) has declined by 1.3%, to 101.50. The index peaked at a 38-month high yesterday at 102.99. EURUSD has concomitantly lifted by over 1% to levels above 1.0800. Cable rallied by nearly 3% to levels back above 1.1800, up from yesterdays 35-year at 1.1451. USDJPY dropped back to the lower 109.00s from levels above 111.0, though the yen still weakened against many other currencies.

    Biggest (FX) Mover @ (09:30 GMT) AUDUSD (+3.48%) Rallied from 0.5680 at open, over 0.5800 & 0.5900. The MAs aligned higher, RSI (67) positive, MACD histogram & signal line rising and breached 0, Stochastics moving higher but not yet into OB zone. H1 ATR 0.0063, Daily ATR 0.0205.

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


    Stuart Cowell
    Head Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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  6. #233
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    Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

    Date : 24th March 2020.

    FX Update March 24 2020




    AUDUSD, H1

    Currencies moved in a risk-on formation, with the Dollar, Yen and Swiss franc weakening against most other currencies, with the commodity and many developing-world currencies outperforming. This came with S&P 500 futures rallying strongly, more than reversing the 2.9% closing loss the cash version of the index saw yesterday on Wall Street. Oil, most base metals and other commodity prices also rose. Asian stock markets also rallied. The massive $2 tln coronavirus stimulus bill in the US looks near to being passed in the Senate. The Feds ultra-aggressive pledge of unlimited dollar funding also appears to be having some success. The US 2-year note yield dropped yesterday to a near seven-year low of 0.79%, which, although higher today, concomitantly put a lid on the Dollar. The narrow trade-weighted USDIndex dropped by about 1% in printing a four-day low at 101.45, extending the correction from the 38-month high that was seen last Friday at 102.99. EURUSD and Cable concurrently lifted just over 1%, to respective five-day and intraday highs at 1.0866 and 1.1695. The biggest mover out of the main dollar pairings and associated crosses has been AUDUSD, which lifted by over 2%, making a four-day peak at 0.5975. The Aussie dollar has now rebounded by over 8% from the 18-year low it saw last week, at 0.5507. With oil prices posting a near 5% rally, USDCAD turned lower, back below 1.4400, though the pair remained above yesterdays low at 1.4335.

    As for the coronavirus, more countries have been going lock-down, the latest of note being the UK, and the major question about how long it will be before something approaching normal economic activity resumes. Incoming preliminary March PMI survey data have and will continue to paint a grim picture of the economic consequences to date.

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

    Stuart Cowell
    Head Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

  7. #234
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    Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

    Date : 25th March 2020.

    FX Update March 25 USD Cools




    USDCAD, H1

    The commodity (AUD again todays best performer) and many developing world currencies have continued to rebound, while the Dollar, Yen and Swiss franc have traded generally softer. This comes with Asian stock markets rallying and European markets opening positively after the DJIA equity index posted its biggest single-day rally on Wall Street since 1933. The US Senate and White reached agreement on a $2 tln fiscal stimulus package, which joins a growing list of countries around the world to have unveiled bazooka-sized spending packages, joining ambitious central bank monetary stimulus efforts aimed at mitigating the impact of virus containing measures. This comes amid tentative signs that the lockdown in Italy is starting to work, as new cases and the death rate ebb. There are also other signs of encouragement, such as news that 20% of US companies in China have reported that they have returned to normal operations, showing that there is economic life after lockdown.

    Among the main currencies, USDJPY has traded neutrally so far today, while most Yen crosses, especially those with a commodity or developing world currency counterpart, have lifted. USDJPY has held with a range of 110.75-111.50, narrow by recent standards and well within the bounds of yesterdays range. EURJPY has posted modest gains, but remained below yesterdays peak. AUDJPY, amid its fifth consecutive up day, posted a 10-day high at 67.25. AUDUSD lifted by 1.2% in printing an eight-day high at 0.6060, extending the rebound from last weeks 18-year low of 10%. USDCAD fell to a five-day low at S2 and below 1.4300 at 1.4299, with the Canadian Dollar continuing to correlate closely with oil prices, which today extended over 3% higher to five-day highs, but remains capped at $25.00. EURUSD has traded higher, to the mid 1.0800s, but has remained comfortably within Tuesdays range.

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

    Stuart Cowell
    Head Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

  8. #235
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    Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

    Date : 26th March 2020.

    GER30: Back to risk-off.but for how long?




    EGBs have rallied with Treasuries and with Eurozone spreads coming in after the ECB confirmed that it will drop issuer limits in its EUR 750 bln QE program. Tapping the ESM and finally using Draghis OMT program are also on the cards for the Eurozone as governments try to limit the impact of the pandemic. Despite the massive US stimulus package and additional promises from European officials, stocks markets headed south in Europe and US futures are also broadly lower, ahead of likely dismal US jobless claims.

    The 10-year Bund yield was down -3.9 bp at -0.308%, the Gilt yield down -3.7 bp at 0.398% US Treasury yields had declined -6.1 bp to 0.806%. Greek 10-year rates dropped nearly 34 bp as Eurozone spreads narrowed. GER and UK100 meanwhile are both down -2.1%.

    FX market volatility has been on the decline this week, as massive global stimulus has ratcheted markets away from panic mode that prevailed last week. However the market will continue to remain subject to high volatility and overall underperformance as long as the coronavirus contagion remains in a state of increasing spread.

    The plethora of global monetary and fiscal responses have helped stocks finding a sustainable reprieve, however so far today as volatility remains high we have seen pullbacks. Whether these are corrections or signs of reversal, no one knows yet!

    In the EU, GER30 in contrast with UK100, has gain some ground, having a distance of more than 1600 points from 7-years lows. This reflects to more than 35% reversal, but does it look sufficient enough in order to believe in a reversal? Technically responding, the sentiment that we have seen that last few sessions presents positive bias in the short term, with the asset holding bottom above 9,500 (23.6% Fib. level at 9,523) despite the doji Wednesday. This provides relief, that 38.2% Fib is still on the cards. A breakout above the short term pennant formation could open the doors towards a retest of 38.2% Fib. retracement level at 10,358 (this could fill March 12 gap) .

    In the medium term meanwhile, daily momentum remain negative even though they are giving signs if weakness. RSI recovered from oversold levels but remains below neutral zone and MACD is at the negative are however it is extending above its signal line suggesting decreasing negative bias.

    There is clearly plenty of volatility still to play out, but the way this move is shaping, weakness is now being bought into.

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

  9. #236
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    Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

    Date : 27th March 2020.

    FX Update 27 March 2020.




    USDJPY, H1

    The Dollar declined and then recovered some of its losses, which saw the narrow trade-weighted USDIndex print a nine-day low at 99.15 before recouping levels back above 99.40. At the lows, the index was showing a correction of 3.2% from the 38-month high that was seen last week, which can be credited to the Feds ultra-aggressive dollar printing activity. There has also been a side theme of pronounced losses in USDJPY and Yen crosses, which look out of sync with the usual correlative pattern in light of a backdrop of mostly-higher stock and commodity markets in Asia today (which often times, especially in the prevailing crisis, would be associated with a softening in the Japanese currency). The demand for Yen was reportedly driven by repatriation of Japanese investment funds, according to several market reports and narratives, even though the timing just a few days before Japans financial year end seems a little strange. USDJPY, aided by broad Dollar weakness, dropped by about another 1% in printing a one-week low at 108.25. EURJPY, AUDJPY and most other Yen crosses declined, too, which amounted to a correction. Subsequently, the Yen gave back up to half of its gains as the European interbank market picked up the reins, and expectations, should risk appetite hold up, the Yen could soften from here. The USDJPY and the crossing EMA strategy (H1) closed out in the last hour as the 9-period EMA was broken at 108.89 from an entry at 111.14 on March 25, a 220 pip move.

    Elsewhere, EURUSD edged out a 10-day high at 1.1088, before ebbing back under 1.1050. Cable printed an eleven-day high, at 1.2306. As for the coronavirus, the exponential rate of new cases has continued. Cases in the US have surged, and it might be several weeks before the fruits of the global lockdown is seen. Few are now expecting a V-shaped economic recovery out of this, such as was seen following the SARS epidemic in Asia in 2003. The key question is how wide the U will be in a U-shaped recovery? An old market adage has always been to, never try to catch a falling knife.

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

    Stuart Cowell
    Head Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

  10. #237
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    Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

    Date : 30th March 2020.

    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 30th March 2020.




    Events to Look Out For Next Week

    All major countries across the world are effectively locked down now as virus developments remain in focus, with ever bigger aid packages. The data this week especially from the US were highly infected by the pandemic. Hence, as disruptions from COVID-19 have begun to catch up to the soft data measures, the impact will likely be greater in the late-month measures of sentiment. Recession fears could be further escalated if we see any effect in the March US jobs.

    Monday 30 March 2020

    Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (EUR, GMT 12:00) The German HICP preliminary inflation for March is anticipated to decline at 1.4% y/y from 1.7% y/y.

    Pending Home Sales (USD, GMT 14:00) Pending home sales rebounded in January to 5.2% m/m, however, for February we could see a big -0.3% pull-back.

    Tuesday 31 March 2020

    Manufacturing PMI (CNY, GMT 01:00) The NBS Manufacturing PMI is expected to massively decline to 4.4 in March from 35.7, as a subsequence of the shut down after the lunar new year holiday.

    Gross Domestic Product (GBP, GMT 06:00) GDP is the economys most important figure. Q4s GDP is expected to be unchanged at 0% q/q and 1.1% y/y.

    Unemployment data (EUR, GMT 07:55) The German unemployment rate in March is expected to have increased to 5.1% from 5.0%, while unemployment change is expected to have peaked to 30K from Februarys drop to -10K.

    Consumer Price Index (EUR, GMT 09:00) HCPI inflation dropped back to 1.2% y/y in February from 1.4% y/y in the previous month, while core inflation actually moved up to 1.2% y/y from 1.1% y/y in January. This months core is expected unchanged, while HICP is anticipated lower at 0.8% y/y/.

    Gross Domestic Product (CAD, GMT 12:30) Canada GDP results for January are seen to be slowing down, at a monthly rate of 0.2% compared to 0.3% last month.

    CB Consumer Confidence (USD, GMT 14:00) The Conference Board Index is expected to have decreased to 121.0, compared to 130.7 in the previous month.

    Wednesday 01 April 2020

    Caixin Manufacturing PMI (CNY, GMT 01:45) The Caixin manufacturing PMI is expected to spike to 46.5 from 40.3 in February.

    ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (USD, GMT 12:15) The ADP Employment survey is seen at 216k for March compared to the 183K in February.

    ISM Manufacturing PMI (USD, GMT 14:00) The ISM index is expected to fall to 43.0 in March from 50.1 in February, compared to a 14-year high of 60.8 in August of 2018.

    EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change (USOIL, GMT 14:30)

    Thursday 02 April 2020

    Trade balance (USD, GMT 12:30) The US trade deficit narrowed -6.7% to -$45.3 bln in January following the 11.0% December jump to -$48.6 bln. Februarys one is expected to widen further.

    Friday 03 April 2020

    Retail Sales (AUD, GMT 00:30) Februarys Retail sales could be improved by 0.4%, following a 0.3% January loss.

    Event of the Week Non-Farm Payrolls (USD, GMT 12:30) A -100k March nonfarm payroll drop is anticipated, following 273k increases in both February and January. This is based on assumptions such as the -20k factory jobs drop in March, and a 47k boost from assumed Census hiring as this temporary job count starts to climb more rapidly. The jobless rate should rise to 3.8% from 3.5%, as COVID-19 disruptions start to take their toll.

    ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (USD, GMT 14:00) The ISM-NMI index is expected to fall to 49.0 from 57.3 in February, versus a recent low of 53.5 in September of 2019 and a 13-year high of 61.2 in September of 2018. The soft data measures are finally starting to show a hit from coronavirus disruptions and the emerging OPEC price war, and these hits should be bigger for the late-March reports than the early-March reports.

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

  11. #238
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    Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

    Date : 31st March 2020.

    Dead cat Bounce!




    Dead cat Bounce! A new term? Not really but definitely something that we havent seen for more than a generation.

    In general, investors throughout the years invented this term as a follow up to a market free fall. By definition, the Dead cat Bounce is simply a market phenomenon that translates into temporary small and short-lived rebounds of an assets price within a prolonged period of downside. This term is based on the idiom that even a dead cat will bounce if it falls far enough and fast enough. Hence in the financial market it is said that even if an asset falls with a considerable speed, it would rebound as even a dead cat would bounce. However, every time there is a rebound, the overall initial trend is then anticipated to resume, bringing the bearish influence back into play.

    In addition, the phenomenon can occur in any market, yet is particularly prevalent in equity markets. It is often the case that it is considered a continuation pattern.

    Why are we raising this topic now? This March, was the first time after Black Monday 1987 that we have seen the worst intraday selloffs in stock markets. Since February 20th, the stock market entered an aggressive bear market with a few days of an absolute rally. An example was the 13th of March in which the stock market roared back in the biggest one-day rally since 2008 after its worst single-day crash in 33 years just a day before. This is the classic dead cat bounce.



    If you closely observe stock market behaviour in March you will notice that there is a dramatic decline, with a number of days when the market reversed some of its losses, but failed to take the bait, and eventually fell back down again. This is a situation of portfolio managers wanting to sell some of their positions and when they see some strength in the market, decided to unload. This is what we call a dead cat bounce after it falls from high enough. Remember however that not every correction/reversal can be interpreted as a dead cat bounce.

    Theoretically this term is defined as the term in which,

    * A stock in a severe steep decline has a sharp bounce off the lows.
    * A small upward price movement in a bear market after which the market continues to fall.

    Unfortunately, I need to highlight that there is not an easy way to determine in advance whether an upwards movement is a dead cat bounce which will eventually reverse quickly or whether it is a trend reversal. There is nothing easy in identifying the bottom of the market. However to a large extent a dead cat bounce is a retracement, in comparison to a reversal, i.e. it is temporary.

    Dead cat bounce as a technical analysis tool and more precisely as a continuation pattern could be tradable from short-term or medium term traders. Having explained this phenomenon, a follow-up article will elaborate on how market participants can trade a dead cat bounce.

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

  12. #239
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    Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

    Date : 1st April 2020.

    All eyes on Commodity Currencies.




    Asian stock markets are lower, while European and US equity index futures are showing losses of around 3%. Data out of Asia today were nothing short of dismal, showing manufacturing contracting across most of the region, highlighting the economic toll that virus-containing measures are having.

    The main concern remains that the massive global stimulus measures simply wont be fully effective while many economies remain in a state of lockdown of as-yet unknown duration.

    Commodity currencies have come under pressure as the winds of risk aversion picked up again.The Canadian dollar was the main loser so far today , while it has remained under pressure with oil prices sinking back toward major-trend lows as crude storage facilities burst at the seems from excessive supplies.

    USDCAD has gained up nearly 2% in making a 1.4230 high, though the pair so far has remained below yesterdays peak at 1.4350. This is due to the fact that crude prices are down by over 65% year-to-date. This level of price decline in Canadas principal export, while it sustains, marks a significant deterioration in the Canadian economys terms of trade. Given the glut of crude flooding the market, and given that supply is increasing as demand will remain weak for a historically protracted amount of time, Canadian Dollar is anticipated to remain apt to underperformance. The likes of the Norwegian krona, which like the Canadian dollar is an oil-price correlator, and many developing world currencies have also come under pressure.

    From the technical perspective, USDCAD overall outlook remains positive with asset holding above all three daily SMAs since January, and momentum indicators positively configured. RSI at 59 recovery from a pullback last week, Stochastic rebound from oversold territory and MACD presents some decline of the bullish momentum but holds well above 0. That said, USDCAD revisiting its recent 17-year high at 1.4669 seems likely before long.

    Intraday meanwhile, the rebound of USDCAD looks to run out of steam, however only a move below 1.4050 could suggest a reverse of the outlook.

    AUDUSD tipped over 1% lower in making a 5-day low at 0.6064 amid weaker Gold prices (end-of-quarter flows). The Aussie still remains comfortably above the 17-year low that was seen on March 19th at 0.5507. The Kiwi dollar has also taken a tumble.

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

    Stuart Cowell
    Head Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

  13. #240
    Tareekh shamoliat
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    Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

    Date : 2nd April 2020.

    FX Action 2nd April 2020.




    A 10%-plus rebound in crude prices catalyzed gains in oil-correlating currencies, including the Canadian Dollar and Norwegian krona, and other commodity currencies, while helping give stock markets a lift after a sputtering session in Asia. The wake of ugly 6.6 mln surge in US jobless claims, which was about double the consensus forecast, weighed on global markets. US equities reversed lower as risk appetite eroded again, taking back earlier gains, while Aussie for example has more than given up intraday gains, with AUDUSD presently pushing on lows at 0.6019, down just over a big figure from the intraday high that was seen during the Sydney session.

    The massive gain in initial claims, which followed a similarly hefty rise the previous week, was well anticipated but provided a timely reminder of what is to come.

    USDCAD has dropped by over 0.6%, driven by a bid for the Canadian Dollar amid a 10%-plus oil price surge. The pair posted a low at 1.4079, though has so far remained above its Wednesday low at 1.4060. A Bloomberg report, citing sources with inside knowledge, said that China is moving forward with plans to buy oil for its emergency reserves. Beijing is reportedly aiming to build up a crude stockpile that would cover 90 days of net imports with the possibility of expanding this to 180 days. China is the worlds biggest oil importer and is taking advantage of the 60%-odd collapse in oil prices. USOIL prices posted a 6-day high at $22.55, but still remain down by just over 65% from the highs seen in early January. This level of price decline in Canadas principal export, while it sustains, marks a significant deterioration in the Canadian economys terms of trade. Assuming that Chinas buying spree wont close this gap substantially, given the glut of crude flooding the market, and given that demand will remain weak for a historically protracted amount of time, CAD should remain apt to underperformance. In the medium term, USDCAD could retest its recent 17-year high at 1.4669.



    Both the AUDUSD and NZDUSD rallied, although both remained within their respective Wednesday ranges against the US Dollar.

    USDJPY and most yen crosses, in particular those involving a commodity currency, have gained concomitantly with the improvement in risk appetite, which saw the yens safe haven premium unwind some.

    GBP is again ranking among the currency outperformers today, gaining over 0.7% versus the Dollar and by over 0.8% against both the Euro and Yen on the day so far. Market narratives have been pointing to the impact of the Feds launching of a new FIMA facility (announced Tuesday) , which will start on April 6 and allow foreign central banks to obtain Dollars without selling Treasuries. This will run alongside the swap lines created with 14 central banks, and the two should ease strains in global dollar funding. This is seen as a particular positive for the Pound, given the UKs recently proven vulnerability to global liquidity shortages, with its large financial sector and dependence on foreign investment inflows (equivalent to about 4% of GDP) to finance its large current account deficit.



    The Pound had underperformed even commodity currencies during the worst of the recent global liquidity crunch, which ran from about March 10th through to March 19th, before measures by the Fed and other central banks provided a mitigating impact. Sterling lost about 10% of its value in trade-weighted terms over this period, and tumbled by 12% versus the Dollar, hitting a 35-year low, and an 11-year low against the Euro. The worst now looks to be over for the Pound, especially with markets starting to bet that the UK will ask the EU for an extension of its post-Brexit transition membership of the Unions customs union and single market. Neither the UK nor EU has the resources to conduct detailed trade negotiations under the prevailing circumstance of the coronavirus crisis. This is seen as Sterling positive as it will avoid the possibility of the UK leaving the transition period and shifting a big chunk of its trade onto less favourable WTO trade terms.

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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