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Mauzo: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

  1. #131
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    Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

    Date : 6th Sepember 2019.

    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 6th Sepember 2019.




    FX News Today

    * Stock markets remained supported during the Asian session after a higher close on Wall Street yesterday.

    * The prospect of a new round of trade talks helped to underpin sentiment Thursday and investors are scaling back easing expectations for the upcoming ECB and Fed meetings.

    * Markets priced out a lot of their easing expectations for next weeks ECB meeting yesterday, the German production number (German industrial production fell -0.6% m/m in July,) acted as a reminder that the balance of risks still remains tilted to the downside and that also holds for Brexit risks.

    * US reports revealed a surprisingly large August ISM-NMI bounce to 56.4 from a 3-year low of 53.7, alongside a similar ISM-adjusted bounce to 56.1 from a 3-year low of 53.0. The employment gauge fell, however, to a 2-year low of 53.1 from 56.2.

    * The confidence in progress on the trade front is far from secured yet and while yesterdays private payroll survey in the US was better than expected, markets are holding back ahead of official US Payroll numbers later today.

    * Nikkei (JPN225) rose 0.43%. The Shanghai Comp is up 0.06%.

    * European stock futures posted slight losses, while US futures held on to fractional gains.

    * The USOIL meanwhile is trading at $56.30 per barrel.

    Charts of the Day



    Technicians Corner

    * EURUSD rallied early in the session topping at 1.1085, right at its 20-day moving average. Gains came on risk-on conditions, along with the markets apparent scaling back of ECB easing expectations. Later, a stronger ADP jobs report and firmer services ISM reversed the pairings course, as the Dollar turned broadly higher on the data. The Euro later eased back toward 1.1035 before steadying. Relative strength of the US economy over Europe should keep EURUSD in sell-the-rally mode going forward.

    * USDJPY has rallied sharply, peaking at 107.22 yesterday, levels last seen on August 2, and above its 50-day moving average for the first time since August 1. Prospects for US/China trade talks in October, along with better US data, and the accompanying Wall Street and Treasury yield rallies, have supported the pairing through the morning session. Currently is moving sideways in the upper BB (1-hour chart) and within the 1-month Resistance area at 106.80-107.04. A decisive daily candle above this area could turn the overall outlook.

    Main Macro Events Today

    * UK court hearing on forcing no-deal Brexit

    * Gross Domestic Product (EUR, GMT 09:00) Eurozones economic growth s.a for Q2 2019, is likely to remain confirmed with GDP rising by 0.2% q/q.

    * NFP and Labour Market Data (USD, GMT 12:30) A 155k August nonfarm payroll rise has been estimated, following a 164k increase in July. The unemployment rate should tick down to 3.6% after an uptick to 3.7% in June that was sustained in July, and hours-worked are estimated to rise 0.3%. Average hourly earnings should rise 0.3% m/m.

    * Employment Change (CAD, GMT 12:30) Employment change is seen spiking to 12.5k in the number of employed people in August, compared to the decline 24.2k in July. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 3.7%.

    Support and Resistance levels



    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.

    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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  3. #132
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    Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

    Date : 11th Sepember 2019.

    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 11th Sepember 2019.




    FX News Today

    * Asian bond markets in general under pressure as local investors caught up with developments in the US yesterday.

    * Excessive easing hopes continue to be scaled back ahead of the ECB meeting tomorrow and the Fed decision yesterday but with lingering hopes that governments will step up support for the global economy helping to underpin stock markets.

    * President Trump has fired National Security Adviser John Bolton.

    * The departure of Bolton has lifted hopes that the US will take a softer stance on China and North Korea and it also triggered a sell-off in oil amid hopes that tensions with Iran may ease.

    * China will lift limits on foreign investment, which underpinned brokerages.

    * News wires are citing a report from Chinas South China Morning Post that China will buy more agricultural products from the US, to sweeten the trade deal. This should help add to optimism of more progress.

    * The WTI futures has recovered some of yesterdays losses and is trading at $57.86 per barrel, after falling to a low of 57.20 in the wake of the Bolton announcement.

    Charts of the Day



    Technicians Corner

    * Oil: WTI crude slid from $58.60 to $57.30 following news that NSA Bolton was fired by Trump. The ouster of the uber-hawk Bolton is equated by the oil market as an easing in potential conflict between the US and Iran. The WTI contract remains up over $1 from Mondays low and the 200-day SMA.

    * USDJPY printed near 6-week highs of 107.84, continuing to be supported by hopes for a solution to the US/China trade dispute. US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin said recently there has been lots of progress on talks recently. In addition, a Reuters source report ahead of the US open indicated BoJ policymakers have discussed further easing measures, including cutting rates further into negative territory. This weighed on the Yen as well.

    Main Macro Events Today

    * Producer Price Index (USD, GMT 12:30) The Headline PPI is expected at a -0.1% dip for the PPI headline in August, with a 0.2% rise in the core index. As expected readings would result in a y/y gain of 1.7% for headline PPI that matches the July gain, and a 2.2% y/y rise for the core, versus 2.1% in July. The y/y headline readings is anticipated in a 1.3%-2.0% range over coming months, while core prices should be in a 1.9%-2.3% range.

    * Crude Oil Inventories (GMT 14:30)

    Support and Resistance levels



    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

  4. #133
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    Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

    Date : 12th Sepember 2019.

    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 12th Sepember 2019.




    FX News Today

    * Treasury yields declined overnight, as sentiment improved and central bank decisions come into view.

    * Stock markets remained supported during the Asian session as trade jitters continue to ease.

    * Boltons departure in the US has triggered renewed hopes of a softer stance in the Trump camp and goodwill gestures from both China and the US have rekindled hopes that tensions can be resolved through talks after all.

    * President Trump said he will delay the next US tariff increase on China by about two weeks, after China yesterday published an exemption list of its own tariffs on US imports.

    * The final reading of German August HICP inflation brought no surprise, with HCIP confirmed at just 1.0% y/y, far below the ECBs reference rate of 2.0%.

    * US and European futures are moving higher.

    * The WTI future is trading at USD 56.27 per barrel.

    * The focus meanwhile is turning to todays ECB meeting, which is widely expected to bring a cut to the deposit rate, but could disappoint on the QE front and coming ahead of the Fed decision next week, many will see it as a bellwether for easing intentions at global central banks.

    Charts of the Day



    Technicians Corner

    * The Dollar saw a 6-week high against the Yen, as goodwill gestures from both the US and China on the tariff front lifted risk appetite. The Yen continued to see its safe-haven premium deflate. USDJPY is trading over 108, in what is now a fourth consecutive day of ascent, which is in turn amid a third consecutive week of gains. AUDJPY and GBPJPY also continued to rise amid general strength in export-driven currencies amid the buoyant mood on the trade front.

    Main Macro Events Today

    * Interest Rate Decision, Monetary Policy Statement and Press Conference (EUR, GMT 11:45 & 12:30) The ECB is expected to cut deposit rate by 10 bp to -0.50%, with new tiered system to limit the impact. Most analysts are expecting a 10 bp cut in the deposit rate, which would leave it at -0.50%. The repo rate, currently at 0.00%, is likely to be kept on hold for now. The ECB is anticipated to re-open QE. There even is a risk that the restart of QE will be put on hold for now. With Lagarde taking over from Draghi in November, the pressure on governments to open their purse strings and complement an expansionary monetary policy with fiscal measures will likely increase.

    * Consumer Price Index and Core (USD, GMT 12:30) The headline August CPI is estimated flat with a 0.2% core price increase, following July readings of 0.3% for both. As-expected gains would result in a headline y/y increase of 1.7%, down from 1.8% in July, while core prices should rise 2.3% y/y, up from a 2.2% pace in July. Overall, the inflation outlook remains benign, though we do expect an up-tilt in y/y gains into Q1 of 2020 due to harder comparisons.

    * Crude Oil Inventories (GMT 14:30)

    Support and Resistance levels



    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

  5. #134
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    Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

    Date : 13th Sepember 2019.

    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 13th Sepember 2019.




    FX News Today

    * Bond markets remained under pressure overnight and Bund futures are selling off ahead of the opening in cash markets.

    * Draghis policy bazooka and especially the promise of open-ended asset purchases helped to bring down BTP yields in particular but in core markets, it put pressure on the long end as risk appetite improved.

    * US President Trump said he would consider an interim trade deal on China and while there is nothing substantial yet, hopes that both sides are inching closer to a deal have been strengthened this week.

    * The GER30 closed above the 12400 mark yesterday with a gain of 0.4% and GER30 as well as UK100 futures are moving higher in tandem with, but underperforming US futures, after a positive session in Asia. Todays data calendar is quiet, with only Eurozone trade data of note, which will leave investors to look to US releases while digesting the impact of yesterdays ECB move.

    * China and South Korea were closed for a holiday, but elsewhere across Asia stock markets moved higher with investors hoping that central bank support and progress on the trade front will help to revive global growth.

    * US futures are posting gains of 0.2-0.3%.

    * The WTI future is trading at USD 55.12 per barrel and heading for a weekly drop after the IEA warned this week that OPEC and its allies are facing a looming supply surplus. OPEC+ urged its members to implement promised production cuts this week but didnt discuss deepening cuts, while the IEA highlighted that production from competitors is set to surge.

    Charts of the Day



    Technicians Corner

    * YEN: The Yen posted fresh trend lows against the Dollar, though remained just off the lows it saw against the Euro, Australian Dollar and other currencies yesterday. USDJPY printed a 6-week high at 108.26 in what is now the fourth consecutive day of higher-high making. The Japanese currency has been deflating amid a persisting phase of risk-on conditions in global markets.

    Main Macro Events Today

    * Retail Sales (USD, GMT 12:30) A 0.1% August retail sales headline rise with a flat ex-autos figure is projected, following a 0.7% July headline rise with a hefty 1.0% ex-auto gain. Gasoline prices should prove a drag on retail activity given an estimated -3% drop for the CPI gasoline index, and unit vehicle sales should hold steady in August from a 16.8 mln clip in July. Real consumer spending is expected to grow at a 3.6% rate in Q3, following the 4.7% Q2 clip.

    * Michigan Sentiment (USD, GMT 14:00) The US consumer sentiment fell 8.6 points to 89.8 in the final August print (92.1 preliminary), weaker than expected, after inching up 0.2 ticks to 98.4 in July. The preliminary September Michigan sentiment reading is forecast at 90.5.

    Support and Resistance levels



    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

  6. #135
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    May 2017
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    Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

    Date : 16th September 2019.

    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 16th September 2019.




    * Welcome to our weekly agenda, our briefing of all the key financial events globally. The week ahead is expected to be a massive one, as four of the major Central banks will announce their rate decision, i.e. Fed, BoJ, SNB and BoE. There is a lot of interest in seeing whether BoJ will follow the Feds steps next week in cutting rates.

    Monday 16 September 2019

    * Industrial Production and Retail Sales (CNY, GMT 02:00) The Chinese Industrial Production growth is expected to have risen, at 5.2% y/y in August from 4.8% y/y last month. A slightly positive reading is also expected in the Retail Sales figure at 7.9% from 7.6%.

    Tuesday 17 September 2019

    * Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (AUD, GMT 01:30) The RBA minutes, similar to the ECB Reports, provide a detailed assessment of the banks most recent policy-setting meeting, containing in-depth insights into the economic conditions that influenced the rate decision. They are usually a cause for FX turbulence.

    * ZEW Economic Sentiment (EUR, GMT 09:00) Economic Sentiment for September is projected at -38.0, from the lowest level since 2011 at -44.1 seen last month, as the current conditions indicator for Germany turned negative. The ZEW is a pretty clear indication that investors are gearing up for a much higher risk of a global recession, which ties in with developments in global bond yields and the marked flattening of curves.

    Wednesday 18 September 2019

    * Consumer Price Index (GBP, GMT 08:30) The UK CPI inflation is anticipated to be more underwhelming than the July data, at 1.9% y/y from 2.1% y/y, with a monthly rise up to 0.5% m/m.

    * Consumer Price Index and Core (EUR, GMT 09:00) The final reading of inflation is expected to have held steady at 1.0% y/y and core at 0.9% y/y, with an increase in the monthly number at 0.2%m/m from -0.5%m/m. Lower energy price inflation keep a lid on the overall number meanwhile as CPI excluding energy moved up to 1.2% from 1.1% y/y last month.

    * Consumer Price Index (CAD, GMT 12:30) The August CPI is expected to continue adding to the backing for steady BoC policy this year, even as the Fed and ECB add stimulus. CPI has been forecasted to grow to a 1.7% y/y pace in August, below the 2.0% last month.

    * Interest Rate Decision, Monetary Policy Statement and Press Conference (USD, GMT 18:00-18:30) The Augusts jobs data did little to alter the markets expectations for a 25bp rate cut at the September 17-18 FOMC meeting. Based on Powells latest comments, the Fed is very committed to a symmetric 2% inflation goal, hence given low inflation, interest rates will remain low. That leaves very little room to cut rates further. The Fed is not forecasting or expecting a US recession, nor a global downturn, said Powell. The fact that the chair doesnt seem too concerned about a recession in the States, or the world, suggests the FOMC is not going to be aggressive easing policy.

    Thursday 19 September 2019

    * Interest Rate Decision, Monetary Policy Statement (JPY, GMT 02:00) The BoJ kept its short-term interest rate target at -0.1% and its pledge to guide 10-year JGB yields around 0% while maintaining its asset buying program. The central bank is expected to signal once again its commitment to keep interest rates at current levels for an extended period of time, at least through around spring 2020. The BoJ pledged to keep an eye on the output gap, but for now at least it seems the bank is seeing the risks as coming mainly from the outside.

    * Interest Rate Decision, Monetary Policy Statement (CHF, GMT 07:30) The SNB kept policy on hold at the June council meeting. The Libor target was replaced with a key policy rate, but the central bank was adamant that the degree of monetary accommodation remains unchanged. After the ECB cut rates, while the Fed is now widely expected to ease rates, the SNB has little room to manoeuvre, especially against the backdrop of ongoing Brexit uncertainty and geopolitical trade risks. The SNBs central message remains that the situation remains fragile and the currency highly valued.

    * Interest Rate Decision, MPC Voting (GBP, GMT 11:00) Shadowed by the ongoing political developments in Brexit, the BoE is not expected to proceed with any interest rate actions.

    Friday 20 September 2019

    * Retail Sales ex Autos (CAD, GMT 12:30) Retail sales and Core for August are seen steady, while the headline is anticipated to drop to 2.9% y/y from 3.3% and core to 2.5% from 2.9%.

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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