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Mauzo: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

  1. #241
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    Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

    Date : 3rd April 2020.

    Inured to the bad news.




    The markets are relatively inured to the bad news, as the weekly jobless claims have already given us the increasingly ugly news on the labor market. US equities are modestly weaker amid risk-off sentiment and an employment report that revealed a much larger than anticipated -701k plunge in March and a jump in the jobless rate to 8.7% from 7.0%.

    Meanwhile, the Dollar showed mixed reaction to the employment report. These numbers were worse than expected, though shouldnt really be a surprise given the more timely surge in jobless claims figures seen the past two weeks. USDJPY initially fell to 108.25 before turning back up again at 108.60, while EURUSD fell to 1.0780 from 1.0800. USDCHF extended gains up to 0.9794, reversing nearly 76% of the decline seen since March 20.

    EURUSD concurrently carved out a 9-day low at 1.0774, making this the 5th consecutive day of lower lows while extending the correction from the 17-day high that was seen last Friday at 1.1148. The pair still remains above the low seen during the recent Dollar liquidity crunch, at 1.0637, before the Fed and other central banks stepped in to try and satiate the demand for cash dollars. Its overall outlook meanwhile, remains negative, with the asset extending well below all 3 daily SMAs and with its daily momentum indicators negatively configured. Hence the Dollar bid looks to hold.



    The March establishment and household employment surveys captured more of the early layoffs than the markets had assumed, with massive declines for payrolls and hours-worked, big drops for civilian employment, the labor force, and the participation rate, and the start of the upward march for the jobless rate. Wages were also firm, likely due to the concentration of job loss among lower-paid workers.

    The specifics: March nonfarm payrolls dropped -701k after Februarys 275k increase (was 273k), which ended a 9.5 year run of employment gains. The employment in the goods-producing sector fell -54k from the 57k (was 61k) rise. Service sector jobs slumped -659k after rising 185k (was 167k) in February. Leisure/hospitality jobs plunged -459k from the prior 45k (was 51k) increase. Education/health care jobs were down -76k versus a 65k (was 54k) increase previously. Government jobs edged up 12k, with 18k added to the Federal payroll. The unemployment rate jumped to 4.4% (4.38%) from 3.5%. Average hourly earnings rose 0.4% versus the prior 0.3% gain.

    The weakness captured in the mid-month March jobs report may prompt downward revisions in the Q1 GDP estimate, on the assumption that the Quarter may capture more of the economic plunge than previously assumed.

    Beyond the timing of Q1 versus Q2 growth figures, however, the surprise in todays report is more the degree to which the surveys captured late-March events than the magnitude of declines, since the bulk of the jobs loss will still be captured in the surveys for April.

    Since the Fed is already in maximum easing mode, it is unlikely that reports like todays will alter the monetary policy path.

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

  2. #242
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    Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

    Date : 6th April 2020.

    Events to Look Out For Next Week




    Its a holiday shortened week ahead as most markets will be closed on Friday for the Easter holidays, however the novel coronavirus remains the focal point. The rapid upswing in market volatility seen in March should continue in April as governments, central banks, households and businesses further adapt to the ongoing pandemic and uncertain outlook. Hence this will be another week of increased attention to the data which will incorporate more of the impacts of the global shutdowns and will help start to quantify the severity of the economic impacts amid still very uncertain times.

    Monday 06 April 2020

    OPEC Meeting (USOIL, GMT 19:00) Azerbaijans energy ministry said that a meeting of the OPEC+ group of oil producers is planned for April 6 and will be held as a video conference.

    Tuesday 07 April 2020

    Interest Rate Decision and Monetary Policy Statement (AUD, GMT 04:30) Positioning in 30-day interbank cash rate futures this week implied a 60% chance for the RBA to cut its benchmark interest rate to zero from 0.25% at the upcoming policy meeting, which is up from odds of 31% for such a move that were being discounted just over a week ago. However in the March RBA minutes, they provided colour around the 25bp rate cut and the adoption of QE but they made clear that there is no appetite for negative interest rates.

    JOLTS Job Openings (USD, GMT 14:00) JOLTS define Job Openings as all positions that have not been filled on the last business day of the month. Februarys JOLTS job openings is expected to fall slightly at 6.476M, following the 6.963M in January.

    Ivey PMI (CAD, GMT 15:00) A survey of purchasing managers, the Index provides an overview of the state of business conditions in the country.

    API weekly Crude Oil Stocks (USOIL, GMT 20:30)

    Wednesday 08 April 2020

    EIA weekly Crude Oil Stocks Change (USOIL, GMT 14:30)

    FOMC Minutes (USD, GMT 18:00) The FOMC Minutes report provides the FOMC Members opinions regarding the US economic outlook and any views regarding future rate hikes. In the last FOMC statement, on March 15, the FOMC slashed rates 100 bps to 0% 0.25% in an emergency move, getting ahead of the curve.

    Thursday 09 April 2020

    ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts (EUR, GMT 11:30) The ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts provide information with regards to the policymakers rationale behind their decisions. At the same time, in the last meeting, ECB announced a EUR 750 bln pandemic emergency program (PEPP) and introduced new QE measures worth EUR 120 bln and additional loan programs, while they left rates unchanged at the March policy meeting.

    Producer Price Index (USD, GMT 12:30) The Headline PPI is expected to decline to a -0.2% March PPI headline with a 0.2% increase in the core index. The continued energy price pull-back through the month likely weighed on the headline.

    Employment Change (CAD, GMT 12:30) Employment change is seen spiking to 10.0k in the number of employed people in March, compared to the spike at 30.3k in February. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 5.6%.

    Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (USD, GMT 14:00) The preliminary April Michigan sentiment reading is forecast at 95, up from the 89.1 in March.

    Friday 10 April 2020

    Consumer Price Index (CNY, GMT 01:30) The Marchs Chinese CPI is expected to remain unchanged on a monthly and yearly basis.

    Consumer Price Index and Core (USD, GMT 12:30) The headline CPI has been estimated to a -0.2% March headline CPI drop with a 0.2% core price increase, following respective February readings of 0.1% and 0.2%. As with PPI, the headline inflation figures will be depressed well into 2020 from the OPEC price war, though the core figures will face divergent pressures that are partly downward due to diminished demand with COVID-19, but upward due to supply shortages that may prompt some erratic swings.

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

  3. #243
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    Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

    Date : 7th April 2020.

    FX Update April 7 A wee bit more Risk.



    Trading Leveraged Products is risky

    AUDUSD & GBPUSD, H1

    The commodity currencies outperformed some more, as did many developing-world currencies amid a backdrop of rising stock and commodity markets. Equity markets are amid day two of a rally pinned on tentative signs that the global coronavirus infection and mortality rates might be near to peaking. The Feds decision to finance new payroll protection loans has also bolstered the US economic response plans. AUDUSD has rallied 1.7% in printing a one-week high at 0.6192, while AUDJPY has rallied by 1.4% in making a high at 67.38. The Aussie dollar is now up 3% from last Fridays closing levels. The Kiwi and Canadian dollars are also up. USDCAD has dropped to an eight-day low at 1.4011. The Dollar, Yen and, to a lesser degree, the Swiss Franc, have continued to underperform most other currencies. The narrow trade-weighted USDIndex has declined by 0.6% in pegging a five-day low at 100.79, while EURUSD concurrently lifted by 0.7% in making a five-day high, at 1.0876. The pair is up by just over 1% from its Monday lows. The combination of risk-on positioning in markets and the Feds aggressive dollar liquidity provisions, which forms part of a crisis-era level of monetary accommodation, have been bearish tonic for the Dollar. Dollar underperformance saw USDJPY dip back under 109.00, though the Yen itself trader softer against most other currencies as its safe-haven premium is whittled down.



    Sterling dipped on the news that PM Johnson was moved to ICU and had received oxygen, although Downing Street stated that he was still conscience and that Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab will lead the UK government as long as Johnson is incapacitated. From lows of 1.2162 earlier, a weaker USD, has Cable rally over 170 pips to 1.2335. Next resistance is R2 and the upper Bollinger band around 1.2375, 1.2400 and then R3 at 1.2420. Support sits at 1.2300 and the Daily Pivot Point, a 50.0 Fibonacci level and 200hr moving average at 1.2250.



    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

    Stuart Cowell
    Head Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

  4. #244
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    Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

    Date : 8th April 2020.

    April 8 Europe and EUR update.




    AUDUSD & GBPUSD, H1

    Sentiment collapsed further in European session on the news that EU finance ministers failed to reach deal and also on the announcement from German institutes, which they estimated nearly 10% contraction in Q2, the sharpest decline since records began in 1970. This topped the concerns of pandemic and related shutdown of the economy.

    EU leaders will meet again tomorrow. Discussions on how to finance a European wide response package to the pandemic have not yet found a compromise. Demands for Eurobonds clashing with the red lines against mutualising debt in countries such as Germany, which would make the introduction of new financing measures a lengthy affair even if officials were to agree to such a step. The southern European states (especially Italy) are keen to have debt mutualisation (coronabonds) as part of the package. The most likely outcome is a use of ESM funds to finance immediate aid measures, coupled with funds from the EU budget and the EIB investment bank to finance economic measures not just through the immediate crisis, but to kick start the recovery once lock downs have been lifted.

    Last but not least for European economy, is the fact that ECB lowers collateral standards, to keep credit flowing. The central bank announced that it will temporarily lower standards for the collateral that banks can use to access ECB funds. The move is aimed at keeping credit flowing through the crisis and will also allow Greek debt to be used. Furthermore the haircut applied to collateral, which will allow banks to borrow more money against the same amount of collateral. As a result the ECB will take on more risk onto its own balance sheet, but the hope is that by strengthening banks access to funds the central bank can boost lending to households and businesses. For Greece it will also give the government more room to finance its measures to get the economy through the pandemic. The central bank stressed that the measures are temporary for the duration of the pandemic crisis and will be reassessed later in the year.

    Hence as risk-on has turned today into a risk-off, the EUR weakens so far today on USD strength. It will be very important for the long term stability of the bloc that there will be a clear signal of solidarity at tomorrows juncture.



    EURUSD concurrently declined by almost 0.5% in making a low at 1.0829, resuming the bearish outlook in the daily picture for the asset. Yesterdays rally spread concerns whether the EURUSD possible trend revernsal however todays swing lower again along with the decline for 7th consecutive day below 20- and 50-day SMA suggest that yesterdays rally was just a correction.

    In the 1-hour chart, EURUSD is moving within a tight downchannel since 1.0925 peak, with lower ups and downs seen since then. Hence in the near term any recovery within the channel could be interpret as a correction prior a pullback. Intraday momentum indicators are mixed with RSI at neutral zone posting lower lows since yesterday, while MACD lines have been zeroed suggesting that bulls have lost the control today. Additionally, the mark of a hummingbird by Bollinger bands pattern, which indicates a bearish signal in the daily chart, could signal further weakness in the near term.



    In order the near term picture to turn to positive again, the hourly RSI needs to sustain a move above 50, while we need to see a swing outside the channel and above the confluence of the latest up fractal and the 20-hour EMA, at 1.0892. Meanwhile, in the medium term outlook, the asset is facing a strong Resistance area at 1.0950-1.0965 (50% Fib. retracement from 1.1146 downleg and 50-day SMA). A decisive breakout above this area could imply to the continuation of a recovery for the asset.

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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  6. #245
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    Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

    Date : 9th April 2020.

    FX Update April 9 4 Key Events Today.




    AUDUSD & GBPUSD, H1

    Narrow ranges have been prevailing in currency markets ahead of some big event risk items on todays calendar.

    Asian and European stock markets, and US index futures, have retained buoyancy amid hopes that the peak global coronavirus infection rate may be approaching, which could mark the end of phase 1 of the pandemic, with phase 2 being how to exit from lockdowns while there is, as yet, no vaccine or cure.



    EURUSD has posted a 40-pip range so far, with a two-day low at 1.0840 marking the downside limit. USDJPY has been idling in a 26-pip range, with 109.06 marking the upside cap. Cable has settled in the mid-to-upper 1.2300s, below yesterdays one-week high at 1.2421. UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson remains in intensive care for what is now a fourth day. Official updates, as of yesterday, reported that he was responding well to treatment, but after downplaying his condition ahead of him being admitted to hospital and then an ICU, there is a degree of uncertainty about the accuracy of this. AUDUSD has edged out a 24-day high at 0.6246, buoyed by the current optimism in stock and commodity markets. USDCAD has posted a range of 1.4000-14054, holding within yesterdays range.




    Ahead today, attention will be on:

    1. The recommencement of the EU finance ministers meeting, at 15:00 GMT after yesterdays meeting failed to find an accord on a region-wide fiscal plan to offset the impact of virus-containment measures.

    2. The OPEC+ group of oil producing nations will also begin its teleconference meeting, from 14:00 GMT.Markets are looking for an agreement to slash crude output by 10 mln barrels a day. There is significant scepticism among oil analysts that even a cut of this magnitude would be sufficient to offset the level of recent demand destruction.

    3. In the US, the weekly jobless claims report will once again take top billing (its expected to once again paint a dismal picture), along with ongoing deliberations in the US Congress on fiscal relief measures.

    4. Finally, FED Chair Powell is scheduled on a conference call from the Brookings Institution in Washington DC.

    Note that trading will thin into the long weekend and tomorrows Good Friday holiday.

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

    Stuart Cowell
    Head Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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