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Mauzo: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

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    Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

    Date : 8th September 2020.

    FX Update 8 September Sterling STILL centre stage.



    GBPUSD, H1

    The head of the UK governments legal department has quit, according to sources cited by the FT, (paywall) who report that Sir Jonathan Jones is very unhappy about the governments decision to overwrite parts of the Northern Ireland protocol that was enshrined in the Withdrawal Agreement. This is a significant development, as it shows the governments intent on leaving the single market at year-end without a deal, if necessary, rather than being a mere negotiating tactic. The unilateral move to overwrite parts of the Withdrawal Agreement, specifically aimed at enhancing the UKs state aid autonomy, crosses a fundamental EU red line.



    Sterling has hit fresh lows against its peers, racking up a near 1% loss versus the Dollar and being the biggest loser out of its peer group. Cable dropped to new lows at 1.3020, while EURGBP gained 0.86%, printing a two-week high at 0.9048. The Pound is also down against the other European currencies, the yen and dollar bloc currencies. The latest news is that UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson will give a speech later today where he will defend his governments decision introduce legislation that will unilaterally unpick parts of the EU Withdrawal Agreement. The Internal Market Bill, which will be published this week, is specifically designed to enhance the UKs state aid autonomy rather than constrain it, which puts the UK on a crash course with Brussels and its regime for limited state aid. EU Commission President von der Leyen tweeted yesterday that the Withdrawal Agreement is an obligation under international law and prerequisite for any future partnership. The risk of the UK exiting the EU without a trade deal are now much greater, and the Pound is likely to run much lower yet. Leaving the frictionless trade of the single market without a mitigating trade deal means UK trade shifting to much less favourable WTO terms (think tax and regulatory friction). The UK wont just be leaving the common market, but also the 40 trade agreements the EU has with global economies.



    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

    Stuart Cowell
    Head Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

    اگرچہ مالی مارکیٹس میں ٹریڈنگ میں بہت زیادہ خطرہ ہوتا ہے، پھر بھی یہ اس شرط پر اضافی کمائی بناتی ہے اگر آپ صحیح حکمتِ عملی اختیار کریں۔ ایک قابلِ اعتماد بروکر جیسا کہ انسٹا فاریکس، کا انتخاب کر کے آپ بین الاقوامی مالی مارکیٹس تک رسائی حاصل کر سکتے ہیں اور مالی آزادی کی طرف اپنے راستے ہموار کریں۔ آپ یہاں سائن اپ کر سکتے ہیں۔


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    Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

    Date : 9th September 2020.

    No-Deal Brexit : Odd rising? How about Sterling?



    A a no-deal Brexit outcome is now a much greater risk.

    The London Times have reported that senior members of Prime Minister Johnsons party are warning him about the risks of a no-deal exit from the EUs single market, and that the plan to unilaterally dilute the Withdrawal Agreement is a risky move. Johnsons move may be tactical, aimed at turning a weak negotiating position into a strong one before political leaders become involved in the Brexit endgame, which is set to happen between now and the EU leaders summit in October.

    But, the view that Johnsons cabinet are Brexit ideologues, and are serious about blowing up trade talks and prepared to exit the single market at year-end without a deal, is now much strengthened. As Robert Peston, a generally well regarded ITV political journalist, puts it in an opinion piece, the real reason Johnsons government is sacrificing the prospect of a trade deal boils down to the desire to subsidise British industry to have the discretion to invest without fetter in hi-tech, digital, artificial intelligence and the full gamut of the so-called fourth industrial revolution.



    The Brussels position is that the UK can only have a trade deal if it adheres to the EUs state aid regime, or at the least follow very similar rules, which constrains governments from subsidizing industry to prevent unfair competition. The Internal Market Bill, which is the legislation that will unilaterally unpick parts of the Withdrawal Agreement, published by the government today, is specifically designed to enhance the UKs state aid autonomy rather than constrain in.

    This fits the Singapore model that has been must touted by Johnson and his allies during the Brexit debate.

    The UK government knows full well the impact that this will have in relations with Brussels. EU Commission President von der Leyen in a tweet this week stressed that the Withdrawal Agreement is an obligation under international law and prerequisite for any future partnership. A senior minister admitted yesterday that the Bill breaks international law, while the head of the UK governments legal department quit in disgust. This proposed legislation has greatly raised the odds for the UK leaving the EUs single market without a new deal.

    The Internal Market Bill, coupled with a finance bill planned for later in the year, will give ministers the power to tweak protocols that affect Northern Ireland trade with the rest of the UK, and will also enhance the UKs state aid autonomy which is be inharmonious with the EUs regime for limited state aid. This has put the UK on a crash course with Brussels.



    The Poundis likely to drop much further than it already has if markets see the odds of a no-deal Brexit getting much greater than before. Leaving the frictionless trade of the single market without a mitigating trade deal means UK trade shifting to much less favourable WTO terms (think tax and regulatory friction). The UK wont just be leaving the common market, but also the 40 trade agreements the EU has with global economies.

    Additionally, the continued ramping up in coronavirus testing in the UK, meanwhile, is producing a noisy surge in positive results. The shear volume in testing means that even a 1% rate of false positives may be producing scary looking 1,800 new cases per day. Along with the approach of winter, the case-demic rising numbers of positive tests in juxtaposition to a lack of corresponding rises in hospitalisations/deaths (which was seen in the 2009 swine flu episode) is maintaining the media-driven coronavirus psychosis.

    The economic impact of this should not be underestimated.

    Gatherings of more than six people are now being banned in the UK. Currently however, Sterling has hit fresh 6-week lows against the Dollar, Euro and Yen. The low in Cable is 1.2883, which marks a 4%-plus decline from the last weeks nine-month high at 1.3484. However the biggest underperformer this year is the GBPCHF , with a dive up to 7.6%. This selling pressure came coincided with a strong risk-off vibe in global markets as big tech and energy stocks suffer significant losses, affected by unrealistic tech valuations and plunge in oil prices.

    Meanwhile, the Swiss Franc, an historic low-beta safe-haven currency, periodically correlatives inversely with global stock market direction, along with sentiment about the EU (Switzerlands biggest trading partner). Hence the GBPCHF move has retreated from 200-DMA down to 1.1800 area, breaking the key support band 1.1850-1.1900 and the 50% Fib level from 2020 downleg, with further downside today.

    Momentum is increasingly corrective, with RSI into the 40s, whilst MACD accelerates below its signal line. The inference is that near and medium term negative bias is increasing. A closing breach of 1.1850 would imply further downside towards a previous breakout Support at 61.8% Fib. level, i.e. at 1.1755. If latter rejected, the next Support level comes to the lows 1.16s.



    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

    اگرچہ مالی مارکیٹس میں ٹریڈنگ میں بہت زیادہ خطرہ ہوتا ہے، پھر بھی یہ اس شرط پر اضافی کمائی بناتی ہے اگر آپ صحیح حکمتِ عملی اختیار کریں۔ ایک قابلِ اعتماد بروکر جیسا کہ انسٹا فاریکس، کا انتخاب کر کے آپ بین الاقوامی مالی مارکیٹس تک رسائی حاصل کر سکتے ہیں اور مالی آزادی کی طرف اپنے راستے ہموار کریں۔ آپ یہاں سائن اپ کر سکتے ہیں۔


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    Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

    Date : 14th September 2020.

    Events to Look Out for This Week.




    The week ahead is expected to be a massive one, as three of the major Central Banks the Fed, BoJ and BoE will announce their rate decision and hold a policy press conference. However, markets attention will be focused on Brexit jitters, virus concerns and lingering US-China tensions which will also remain in the mix.
    Have a look at the most important events of the coming days in our usual weekly publication.

    Monday 14 September 2020

    Leadership election of the ruling LDP Japan.

    UK Inflation Report Hearings (GBP, GMT N/A).

    UK Parliamentary Vote on Brexit (GBP, GMT N/A) Internal Market Bill, which overrides parts of the Brexit divorce deal, will be debated in the Commons on Monday September 14.

    Tuesday 15 September 2020

    RBA Minutes (AUD, GMT 01:30) The RBA minutes should provide guidance as to how further the RBA members are prepared to go in order to support the economy. The bank in its last meeting left rates on hold, and increased the size of the Term Funding Facility and made the facility available for longer. RBA Governor Lowe said the board is committed to do what it can to support jobs, incomes and businesses in Australia. Low for longer, with the willingness to do more if necessary, is pretty much the stance at most major central banks as the world economy deals with Covid-19.

    Average Earnings (GBP, GMT 06:00) Average Earnings excluding bonus for July are expected to decline to -0.6% (3Mo/Yr). The ILO unemployment rate is seen unchanged.

    Economic Sentiment (EUR, GMT 09:00) German ZEW economic sentiment for September is expected to have slightly declined, after spiking to 64 in August. This will be important for retail to actually recover as consumers need to be confident enough to go out and spend again.

    Wednesday 16 September 2020

    Consumer Price Index and Core (GBP, GMT 06:00) The UK CPI inflation is anticipated to be underwhelmed as Brexit jitters. August CPI is anticipated higher at 1.3% y/y from 1% y/y, while core is anticipated lower at 1.4%y/y from 1.8% y/y.

    Retail Sales (USD, GMT 12:30) August Retail sales are anticipated to increase at 0.9% for headline and 1.0% for the ex-auto figure, following July gains of 1.2% for the headline and 1.9% ex-autos.

    Consumer Price Index (CAD, GMT 12:30) The August BOC CPI is expected to continue adding to the backing for steady BoC policy this year, as the Fed and ECB also remained in a wait and see stance. CPI has been forecasted to grow to a 0.9% y/y pace in August, above the 0.7% last month.

    Interest Rate Decision, Monetary Policy Statement and Press Conference (USD, GMT 18:00-18:30) The FOMC announced a shift in its monetary policy strategy, moving to an average inflation target. Though the outcome was widely expected, the timing surprised. Markets widely assumed it would be outlined at the September FOMC, along with the SEP. Under this strategy, the Fed will let the economy run hotter and will let the inflation rate rise moderately over 2% in order to make up for prior undershoots of that level. There was no indication of a time frame. Hence this meeting will provide further guidance and timeframe. Lastly as the government looks unlikely to deliver more stimulus, the Fed is expected to be all in.

    Thursday 17 September 2020

    Interest Rate Decision, Monetary Policy Statement (JPY, GMT 03:00 06:00) The focus is on Mondays leadership election of the ruling LDP, which will appoint a new prime minister after Shinzo Abe stepped down. Yoshihide Suga is expected to win. No major changes to prevailing policies would be expected should he indeed be confirmed as the new PM. He is a supporter of Abenomics, large fiscal stimulus is already in the works, and the close relationship between government and the BoJ would be maintained.

    Consumer Price Index and Core (EUR, GMT 09:00) The final reading of August inflation is expected to have held steady at -0.4% m/m and core at -0.5% m/m.

    Interest Rate Decision, Monetary Policy Statement and MPC Voting (GBP, GMT 11:00) Shadowed by the ongoing political developments in Brexit, the BoE is not expected to proceed with any interest rate actions while no change in the MPC voting is expected. BoE policymakers have been subtly changing their tune to a more circumspect one. MPC member Vlieghe, for instance, said that there is a material risk that it could take several years before the economy to return to full capacity.

    Building Permits & Housing Starts (USD, GMT 12:30) Housing starts should slip to a 1.440 mln pace in August, after climbing to a 1.496 mln pace in July from 1.220 mln in June, versus a 14-year high of 1.617 mln in January. Permits are expected to climb to 1.530 mln in August, after rising to 1.483 mln in July. All the housing measures have rebounded sharply in Q3, though the dramatic Q2 climb in the MBA purchase index has been followed by more stable Q3 readings around lofty levels.

    Philly Fed Index (USD, GMT 12:30) The Philly Fed index is seen rising to 19.0 in September from 17.2, after the big jump to 27.5 by June from a 40-year low of -56.6 in April. The Philly Fed index posted a bottom in the last recession of -40.9 in November of 2008. These diffusion indexes should remain elevated as factory activity continues to ramp up, though with backtracking in some states from restrictions on retail activity. Conditions are improving through Q3, as producers face lean inventory levels.

    Friday 18 September 2020

    Retail Sales (GBP, GMT 06:00) UK retail sales for August expected to give further glimpse into Covid-19 damage, with a very pessimistic outcome as forecasts sustain contraction picture .

    Retail Sales (CAD, GMT 12:30) July Retail sales are anticipated to increase at 24.5% for headline and 9.4% for the ex-auto figure.

    Michigan Index (USD, GMT 14:00) The preliminary Michigan sentiment report should climb to 75.0 from 74.1 in August.

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

    اگرچہ مالی مارکیٹس میں ٹریڈنگ میں بہت زیادہ خطرہ ہوتا ہے، پھر بھی یہ اس شرط پر اضافی کمائی بناتی ہے اگر آپ صحیح حکمتِ عملی اختیار کریں۔ ایک قابلِ اعتماد بروکر جیسا کہ انسٹا فاریکس، کا انتخاب کر کے آپ بین الاقوامی مالی مارکیٹس تک رسائی حاصل کر سکتے ہیں اور مالی آزادی کی طرف اپنے راستے ہموار کریں۔ آپ یہاں سائن اپ کر سکتے ہیں۔


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    Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

    Date : 15th September 2020.

    What you need to know today?


    Trading Leveraged Products is risky

    Risk seemed to bounce back yesterday, but investors turned cautious again as the FOMC meeting comes into view. Data out of China, including industrial production and retail sales, beat expectations and the PBOC injected 600 bln yuan via a 1 year MLF, which helped China bourses to move higher. Hang Seng and CSI 300 meanwhile are up 0.5% and 0.7%, also helped by comments out of China that a vaccine could be taken in November.

    The main US equity indexes closed on Wall Street yesterday with gains of over 1%, and USA500 mini is up 0.5% in overnight trading. Positive news on the Covid-19 vaccine and treatment front, news of some mega mergers, along with above-forecast data out of China, have collectively floated investor spirits.

    Elsewhere Asian markets traded mixed, however Eurozone peripheral markets are mostly outperforming slightly, after ECB officials including President Lagarde strengthened the central banks message on the EUR since last weeks policy announcement. The message that if the exchange rate threatens to undermine the inflation projection, the ECB will act, is getting clearer and has already seen peripheral markets rallying yesterday.



    GER30 and UK100 futures are both up 0.1% at the moment, underperforming versus US futures, which are up around 0.5% after a mixed session in Asia overnight. The GER30 and UK100are hardly changed as the focus turns to the FOMC meeting, which starts today and its policy statement and new Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) on Wednesday.

    Chair Powell largely pre-empted this meeting in terms of policy with his Jackson Hole announcement of the FOMCs new strategies where it will pursue an average inflation target and monitor any shortfall in employment. An upward revision is seen in the Feds GDP and inflation outlooks, and a downward bump to unemployment, as a consequence of its regime change. The upward revisions to growth may give the US Dollar a lift, though the lower-for-longer strategy on interest rates may offset.

    The BoE, which announces its policy decision on Thursday, is also expected to keep overall settings on hold, against the background of Brexit and virus jitters. PM Johnson managed to get his controversial Internal Market Bill through the first reading in parliament yesterday and that leaves the risk of a no-deal scenario firmly on the table.

    In FX markets

    The USD and JPY softened against their peers amid a background theme of mostly higher stock markets. Among currencies, the USDIndexprinted a 5-day low at 92.84. Sterling remained heavy, though remained above above recent lows. The UK governments controversial Internal Markets Bill was passed in the House of Commons, and will now go the House of Lords.

    As for the Euro, attention will be on the latest ZEW investor sentiment survey, which is the first major confidence data of September. A slight decline in the expectations reading is expected to 71.0 from 71.5. Nothing yet to shake the ECBs baseline scenario, with Brexit and virus/casedemic developments the key factors that policymakers will be watching closely. EURUSDconcurrently pegged a 5-day high at 1.1900. USDJPY flatlined in the mid-to-upper 105.00s (PP at 105.80).



    AUDUSD rallied by over 0.5% to a 12-day high at 0.7336 but retreated to 0.7310. The release of the latest RBA minutes, although stating a lower exchange rate would provide more assistance to the Australian economy, sparked initial Aussie Dollar buying as markets deemed the minutes to be less dovish in overall tone than had been anticipated. The Aussie was subsequently given a further lift by above forecast Chinese data. .

    USDCAD has been playing a narrow range in the mid 1.3100s, below the 3-week high that was seen last Wednesday at 1.3261. Oil prices have stabilized in recent days following a near 20% tumble, which has arrested the recent decent in oil-correlating currencies, such as the Canadian Dollar. The flattening out in the recovery pace of the global economy, juxtaposed to large global crude stockpiles and uncertainty about Chinese demand (which has been importing crude in record quantities in recent months, but may now be ready to slow this process down), caused the rotation lower in oil prices.

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

    اگرچہ مالی مارکیٹس میں ٹریڈنگ میں بہت زیادہ خطرہ ہوتا ہے، پھر بھی یہ اس شرط پر اضافی کمائی بناتی ہے اگر آپ صحیح حکمتِ عملی اختیار کریں۔ ایک قابلِ اعتماد بروکر جیسا کہ انسٹا فاریکس، کا انتخاب کر کے آپ بین الاقوامی مالی مارکیٹس تک رسائی حاصل کر سکتے ہیں اور مالی آزادی کی طرف اپنے راستے ہموار کریں۔ آپ یہاں سائن اپ کر سکتے ہیں۔


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    Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

    Date : 16th September 2020.

    FX Update September 16 A weaker USD ahead of the FED.





    EURUSD has rallied by just over 50 pips from the intraday low in posting a high at 1.1882. This swings yesterdays six-day peak at 1.1901 back into scope. Dollar weakness is driving the move, which is being facilitated by strong gains in Cable (0.6%) and in the AUDUSD and NZDUSD (both 0.5%). USDJPY touched the key psychological 105.00, S2 and new seven-week low from a pivot yesterday at 105.50 and highs last week of 106.38.



    Regarding the FOMC, no changes are expected in policy, and while the central bank will likely present upward revisions to US economic projections, the recently codified lower-for-longer monetary policy regime is driving a bearish dollar sentiment. The Dollar is also correlating inversely with global stock markets. These factors appear to be outweighing recent ECB signalling about its concerns about euro strength, which partly counterbalances the easing measures implemented earlier in the year. The Pound has rallied to six-day highs against both the Dollar and Euro.



    Cables high is 1.2976. The gains in the UK currency have been concurrent with market narratives showing a measure of incredulity about the UK governments insistence that it is serious about its threat to leave the EUs single market at year-end without a new trade deal, given the massive near-term disruptive impact it would have on the economy and the divisions appearing within the Conservative Party and among UK nations. Even though the controversial Internal Market Bill sailed through the House of Commons, the proposed legislation is likely to have a tougher time in the House of Lords, and in any case there are suspicions that the legislation is merely a gambit of PM Johnson and his cabinet to up the ante and strengthen their negotiating position into the final weeks of talks. This fits with expectations that a more practical attitude will be seen in trade negotiations once state leaders become directly involved in the run-in to the October 15th-16th EU summit. This backdrop has lessened the bearish conviction markets have with regard to the Pound.

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

    Stuart Cowell
    Head Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

    اگرچہ مالی مارکیٹس میں ٹریڈنگ میں بہت زیادہ خطرہ ہوتا ہے، پھر بھی یہ اس شرط پر اضافی کمائی بناتی ہے اگر آپ صحیح حکمتِ عملی اختیار کریں۔ ایک قابلِ اعتماد بروکر جیسا کہ انسٹا فاریکس، کا انتخاب کر کے آپ بین الاقوامی مالی مارکیٹس تک رسائی حاصل کر سکتے ہیں اور مالی آزادی کی طرف اپنے راستے ہموار کریں۔ آپ یہاں سائن اپ کر سکتے ہیں۔


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    Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

    Date : 17th September 2020.

    The Guppy dips to 135.00, having stalled at 136.00.



    GBPJPY, Daily

    Both the UK and Japan are in the middle of political upheavals, (the Brexit Trade talks and Internal Market Bill on one side and the handover from one political dynasty to his trusted lieutenant on the other. Earlier today we had the BOJ signalling No Change to current policy as the new PM Suga completes his first few days in the role. The BOE has just published their statement and minutes from their latest meeting, and again its no change across the board, (excuse the pun), although the spectre of negative interest rates in the UK is more firmly in the toolbox than ever before. The BOE continues to negotiate the tricky ground around monetary policy with the backdrop of deteriorating UK-EU relations and the likelihood of PM Johnson overseeing a very limited trade deal with the EU, if one is agreed at all. The Brexit endgame showdown is very much in-play.

    BOE highlights include stands ready to adjust monetary policy, and to
    keep under review the range of actions taken as a nod to possible negative rates next year with the statement that the MPC has been briefed on the BoEs plans to explore how a negative bank rate could be implemented effectively. It also does not intend to tighten monetary policy until there is clear evidence that significant progress is being made in eliminating spare capacity and achieving the 2% inflation target sustainably.

    Cable continues to rotate around 1.2900 today, whilst EURGBP jumped from 0.9090 to 0.9150 and GBPJPY plunged to 135.00 a level not seen since July 20, some 42 trading days ago.

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


    Stuart Cowell
    Head Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

    اگرچہ مالی مارکیٹس میں ٹریڈنگ میں بہت زیادہ خطرہ ہوتا ہے، پھر بھی یہ اس شرط پر اضافی کمائی بناتی ہے اگر آپ صحیح حکمتِ عملی اختیار کریں۔ ایک قابلِ اعتماد بروکر جیسا کہ انسٹا فاریکس، کا انتخاب کر کے آپ بین الاقوامی مالی مارکیٹس تک رسائی حاصل کر سکتے ہیں اور مالی آزادی کی طرف اپنے راستے ہموار کریں۔ آپ یہاں سائن اپ کر سکتے ہیں۔


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    Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

    Date : 18th September 2020.

    FX Update September 18 A volatile 24hrs.



    The Dollar has scraped out a two-day low at 92.76 in the narrow trade-weighted USDIndex, with EURUSD concurrently pegging a two-day high at 1.1868, gaining quite sharply from yesterdays five-week low at 1.1736. A steadying in stock markets today has seen the Dollar ebb back after finding safe haven demand during the worst of this weeks sharp sell-off across global equity markets.



    The Pound has come under modest pressure against most other currencies. Cable posted an intraday low at 1.2941. The WHO is warning of a serious second wave of SARS-CoV-2 in Europe (Germany recorded 2,179 cases yesterday) on the back of a surge in new cases (despite data showing a continued very low rate of death alongside a relatively low incidence of Covid being listed on death certificates). In the UK, coronavirus cases and, with it, corona-panic are surging. Localised lockdowns are now affecting 10 million people in the UK, and the governments scientific advisory group are, according to an FT report, advising the government to implement a two-week national lockdown. The embattled Health Secretary (Matt Hancock) this morning called it a last line of defence but will do whatever is necessary. This is a negative backdrop for the Pound, adding to the uncertainty surrounding the Brexit endgame, and with the minutes from the BoE MPC meeting yesterday affirming that the central bank is at full steam on contingency planning for negative interest rates (although stressing that it is not ready to do so yet).



    Elsewhere, USDJPY has settled in the mid 104.00s, testing the seven-week low seen yesterday at 104.52. Yen crosses have also rebounded out of lows. Both EURJPY and AUDJPY lifted above their respective Thursday highs. Japans core CPI came in at -0.4%y/y, matching expectations, but the NZDJPY was the biggest mover, moving over +0.6% as the Kiwi holds its bid.

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

    Stuart Cowell
    Head Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

    اگرچہ مالی مارکیٹس میں ٹریڈنگ میں بہت زیادہ خطرہ ہوتا ہے، پھر بھی یہ اس شرط پر اضافی کمائی بناتی ہے اگر آپ صحیح حکمتِ عملی اختیار کریں۔ ایک قابلِ اعتماد بروکر جیسا کہ انسٹا فاریکس، کا انتخاب کر کے آپ بین الاقوامی مالی مارکیٹس تک رسائی حاصل کر سکتے ہیں اور مالی آزادی کی طرف اپنے راستے ہموار کریں۔ آپ یہاں سائن اپ کر سکتے ہیں۔


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    Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

    Date : 21st September 2020.

    Events to Look Out for This Week.




    After an exciting week, the markets continue to digest central bank decisions while waiting for a fresh catalyst. Rising virus infections around the world remain in focus as there is the fear that the equality of hospitalization and deaths will change if the virus spreads from young holiday markets to older generations, and with restrictions ramped up again there is concern that economic activity will be hit again. Meanwhile US-China tensions and no-trade deal Brexit is back in play after BoE was briefed on negative rates. Markets will also be guided by hard economic data.

    Monday 21 September 2020

    Inflation Report Hearings (GBP, GMT N/A) The BOE Governor and several MPC members testify on inflation and the economic outlook before Parliaments Treasury Committee.

    Tuesday 22 September 2020

    RBAs Debelle, BoEs Governor Bailey and Fed Chairs Powell speech

    Wednesday 23 September 2020

    Interest Rate Decision & Policy Report (NZD, GMT 02:00) The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is widely expected to keep the OCR (Official Cash Rate) at the current record low 0.25%. RBNZ Governor Orr, speaking in the first week of September, stressed again that the central bank is actively preparing a new package of measures to implement if necessary. That could include negative wholesale interest rates, further quantitative easing and direct lending to banks. The RBNZ is in the low-for-longer whatever-it-takes boat with the bulk of the worlds central banks.
    Markit Services and Composite PMIs (EUR, GMT 07:30-08:00) The prelim. EU Markit PMI Indices are expected to continue above 50, but slightly decline on Services, which could result in a composite PMI for September at 51.6 from 51.7.
    Markit Services and Composite PMIs (GBP, GMT 08:30) The prelim. UK Markit Service PMI Indices is expected to have improved in September to 59.5. The ongoing recovery in the service sector could continue to be the dominant upward driver of the composite figure. The governments Eat Out to Help Out scheme is behind the so far strength in activity.
    Markit Services and Composite PMIs (USD, GMT 13:45) The prelim. US Markit Service PMI for September is seen lower at 54.9, after the 55.0 in the final read for August. In August the composite index dipped to 54.6 in the final version versus the 54.7 preliminary, though its up from Julys 50.3.
    Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (JPY, GMT 23:50) The BOJ minutes, similar to the ECB Reports, provide a detailed assessment of the banks most recent policy-setting meeting, containing in-depth insights into the economic conditions that influenced the rate decision. They are usually a cause for FX turbulence.

    Thursday 24 September 2020

    Interest Rate Decision & Policy Report (CHF, GMT 07:30) The influence of the SNBs intervening hand may have been in play this month. Total Swiss sight deposits of Francs have risen by 130 bln since the pandemic and consequential lockdowns took a grip on global markets back in March. Sight deposits can be viewed as a proxy marker of SNB intervention to sell Francs in forex markets (after buying foreign currencies), which results in the crediting of newly created Francs in commercial banks sight accounts. The rise in sight deposits also reflects SNB operations to boost liquidity via the COVID-19 refinancing facility. The advent of the EUs recovery fund (a new liquid AAA fund that also reduces Eurozone breakup risks), seen as a milestone by many analysts, has by many accounts caused a re-weighting of the common currency in portfolios, which will help the SNB combat what it sees as a chronically overvalued Franc. The SNB would like to step out of the negative interest rate policy sooner rather than later, but with the world economy still in the grip of Covid-19 and data releases highlighting the fallout from the crisis, there is little the central bank can do if it wants to keep the currency under control.
    German IFO (EUR, GMT 08:00) German IFO business confidence is expected to rise to 94 from 92.6 in August.
    Jobless Claims (USD, GMT 12:30) US initial jobless claims fell -33k to 860k in the week ended September 12 after a revised 893k print in the September 5 week. This is the fourth reading with claims below 1 mln since the surge in the March 20 week.
    BoEs Governor Bailey speech (GBP, GMT 14:00)

    Friday 25 September 2020

    Durable Goods (USD, GMT 12:30) Durable goods orders are expected to rise 2.0% in August with a 3.1% climb in transportation orders, after an 11.4% headline orders climb in July that included a 35.7% transportation orders surge. The durable orders rise ex-transportation is pegged at 1.5%. Defense orders are pegged at 0.9%, following a 33.4% July pop. Boeing orders rose to 8 planes from zero orders in July. The vehicle assembly rate should improve to 12.1 mln from 11.9 mln units in July, versus a 0.1 mln trough in April. Durable shipments should rise 2.5%, and inventories should fall -0.6%.

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

    اگرچہ مالی مارکیٹس میں ٹریڈنگ میں بہت زیادہ خطرہ ہوتا ہے، پھر بھی یہ اس شرط پر اضافی کمائی بناتی ہے اگر آپ صحیح حکمتِ عملی اختیار کریں۔ ایک قابلِ اعتماد بروکر جیسا کہ انسٹا فاریکس، کا انتخاب کر کے آپ بین الاقوامی مالی مارکیٹس تک رسائی حاصل کر سکتے ہیں اور مالی آزادی کی طرف اپنے راستے ہموار کریں۔ آپ یہاں سائن اپ کر سکتے ہیں۔


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    Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

    Date : 22nd September 2020.

    FX Update September 22 USD, YEN, AUD & GBP all in play.


    Trading Leveraged Products is risky

    AUDJPY, Daily

    The Dollar and Yen have remained firm and pushed ahead of Mondays highs. The Australian Dollar has been the major mover of note out of the main currencies we track, falling to new lows after RBA deputy governor Debelle said that the central bank is watching the currency carefully and that forex intervention is a policy option, as is negative interest rates (while stressing that this doesnt mean its on the table). AUDUSD hit a low at 0.7177 to post a new four-week low, while AUDJPY posted a fresh seven-week low at 75.10. Elsewhere, EURUSD moved lower to post a new seven-week low at 1.1724. Cable also remained heavy, pushing to 1.2710, before recovering the 1.2800 handle following Governor Baileys defence of the need to use negative interest rates. The governor said that we have looked very hard at ways of adding further monetary stimulus, including negative interest rates. Bailey, who was speaking at the British Chambers of Commerce, subsequently said that last weeks note in the minutes from the MPC meeting, that members had been briefed on negative interest rate preparations, did not imply that the BoE would adopt negative rates. This seemed to inspire the snap back in the Pound. USDJPY settled in the mid 104.00s after rebounding out of yesterdays six-month low at 104.00, and what appears to be BOJ intervention. EURJPY also traded above yesterdays low, though ebbed back under 123.00 after peaking at a rebound high at 123.35. GBPJPY broke below 133.00 briefly, but rallied to hold 134.00, following the Governors comments.



    A risk-off theme has continued in global markets, although price changes in assets and currencies have moderated somewhat today relative to yesterday. This backdrop is supportive for the Dollar and Yen, though some market narratives are pointing to a rise in some inflation-adjusted (aka real) JGB yields as being yen positive. Japanese markets reopened from a long weekend. The Nikkei 225 managed a modest gain, but this was the exception as most Asian markets continued to drop, and some quite sharply (South Koreas KOPSI, for instance, racking up a loss of over 2.5%). S&P 500 minis have also declined in its overnight session, although only moderately. Most commodity prices have managed to steady, however, and the pace of declines in global stocks has, overall, lessened. Nonetheless, the prevailing bias across markets is one of caution. Many European countries are implementing restrictions in the face of a surging coronavirus case-demic (still no significant correspondence in public health issues, i.e. hospitalisations, mortality), which has clobbered stocks in the airline and hospitality sectors. The US Congress remains deadlocked over the size and shape of a new fiscal support bill, while uncertainty about the upcoming US election (6 calendar weeks but only 31 trading days away) is also causing market participants to tread cautiously.

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


    Stuart Cowell
    Head Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

    اگرچہ مالی مارکیٹس میں ٹریڈنگ میں بہت زیادہ خطرہ ہوتا ہے، پھر بھی یہ اس شرط پر اضافی کمائی بناتی ہے اگر آپ صحیح حکمتِ عملی اختیار کریں۔ ایک قابلِ اعتماد بروکر جیسا کہ انسٹا فاریکس، کا انتخاب کر کے آپ بین الاقوامی مالی مارکیٹس تک رسائی حاصل کر سکتے ہیں اور مالی آزادی کی طرف اپنے راستے ہموار کریں۔ آپ یہاں سائن اپ کر سکتے ہیں۔


  11. <a href="https://www.instaforex.com/company_news">Forex Spain</a>
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    Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

    Date : 23rd September 2020.

    FX Update September 23 Day 3 of Dollar Gains.



    EURUSD, H1

    The Dollar is up for a third consecutive day, even managing gains against the Yen as global stock markets lifted out of recent correction lows. Solid US data yesterday, including the August existing home sales and the September Richmond Fed index, have been in the mix, alongside a flurry of dovish signalling from central bank policymakers. BoJ Governor Kuroda earlier stressed that the Feds recent policy regime change is similar to the stance the Japanese central bank took in 2016, which he described as an overshooting strategy. He said that the BoJ wont hesitate to take additional easing steps if necessary. Policymakers at the ECB, BoE and RBA have been similarly ramping up dovish signalling in the wake of the Feds move in late August, not wanting to see their respective currencies rise against the Dollar in these disinflationary times. ECBs Mersch is the latest, cited by Bloomberg today saying that it is obvious that the exchange rate influences inflation.



    Expectations for the RBA to cut rates again are also cementing, which has been concomitant with recent declines in iron ore and other commodity prices. The flagging pace in global economic growth is marring the outlook for resources, which is the prime influencer of the export-oriented Australian economys terms of trade. Westpac analysts are expecting an easing at the October 6th RBA policy review, while a NAB research note is calling for a rate cut at either the October or November meetings. AUDUSD dropped 0.6% in posting a six-week low at 0.7113, extending losses from last weeks highs around 0.7350. AUDJPY fell by 0.5%, foraying further into 10-week low terrain. The USD Index (DXY) printed an eight-week high at 94.24, while EURUSD lifted to an eight-week low at 1.1673. USD-PY edged above 105.00. Cable hit a two-month low at 1.2681, marking a 6% decline from the high seen in early September. The Pound also saw moderate declines versus the Euro and Yen, among other currencies, amid a bearish mix of new Covid restrictions in the UK, the upcoming expiry of the governments wage support scheme, and Brexit endgame uncertainties.

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

    Stuart Cowell
    Head Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

    اگرچہ مالی مارکیٹس میں ٹریڈنگ میں بہت زیادہ خطرہ ہوتا ہے، پھر بھی یہ اس شرط پر اضافی کمائی بناتی ہے اگر آپ صحیح حکمتِ عملی اختیار کریں۔ ایک قابلِ اعتماد بروکر جیسا کہ انسٹا فاریکس، کا انتخاب کر کے آپ بین الاقوامی مالی مارکیٹس تک رسائی حاصل کر سکتے ہیں اور مالی آزادی کی طرف اپنے راستے ہموار کریں۔ آپ یہاں سائن اپ کر سکتے ہیں۔


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