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Mauzo: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

  1. #161
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    Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

    Date : 08th November 2019.

    FX Action | 08th November 2019.




    EUR: Retests 50-day SMA

    Asset:EURUSD 1.1048
    Daily bias: Ranging intraday sentiment
    Weeks Range: 1.1026 1.1058

    * EURUSD has been playing a narrow range near 1.1050, above the 23-month low seen yesterday at 1.1036. The pair is showing a net loss of just over 1% from week-ago levels, coming after the surprisingly strong US jobs report of last Friday, and followed-up this week by decent non-manufacturing ISM and initial jobless claims data.A sputtering Eurozone economy has been put into relatively sharp contrast by data showing the U.S. economy to be in finer fettle than many were fearing, while the CMEs FedWatch Tool is showing market pricing to have factored in decreasing probability for a rate cut at the December FOMC, with only 5% down from 22% last week (before the October payrolls release).

    * Overall, EURUSD holds in a bearish outlook. EURUSD has been amid a bear trend thats been unfolding since early 2018, from levels around 1.2500 and it is just abreath away from breaking the 50-day SMA. A close today below the latter could seen the retest of 1.1000 and 1.0970 levels.

    * The trend has coincided with the 10-year T-note versus 10-year Bund yield differential having narrowed from 278 bps to the current 216 bps.




    JPY: AUDJPY reverses gains
    Asset: USDJPY 75.36
    Daily bias: Bearish
    Weeks Range: 74.73-75.80

    * Narrow ranges have been seen so far today among the main currencies, which comes with a degree of uncertainty creeping back in with regard to the prospects of a phase 1 trade deal being reached between the US and China. There are reports of fierce internal opposition among members of the Trump administration, while there is conjecture that President Trump will be emboldened by recent relatively strong U.S. data releases and the record highs on Wall Street and will be apt to take a tough stance against Beijing. This has seen Asian stock markets turn softer.

    * USDJPY, after scaling to a 5-month high at 109.48, has settled around 109.20-30, while has currently return northwards again. AUDJPY, which has been an outperformer amid the recent risk-on phase (showing a 7.4% gain at prevailing levels from late-August lows), has also settled lower after printing a 3-month peak yesterday. It is currently retest the midpoint of yesterdays rally. A confirm move below the latter at the top of the ahour, along with the RSI below 50 suggest the increase of negative bias and therefore a possible retest of 74.90-74.98 ( 61.8% Fib and 200-period SMA) or even lower at the S1 of the day, i.e. 74.73. The strengthening of negative bias is also presented by the lower Bollinger bands which are extending southwards.



    CAD: Remains buoyant
    Spot: USDCAD 1.3171
    Weekly bias: Bearish
    Weeks Range: 1.3118 1.3230

    USDCAD has remained buoyant after posting a 9-day high yesterday at 1.3197. The high has come with the US 10-year over Canadian 10-year yield spread having been trending wider, overall, over the last three weeks, rising from about 19 bp to 29 bp, which has offset a moderate rise in oil prices over this period (oil prices have been trending sideways, within about a $13 range, over the last five months).

    USDCAD USDCAD earlier in the week printed a 1-week low at 1.3015 before rebounding. Taking a couple of steps back, USDCAD is near to the midpoint of the range thats been seen over the last 4-plus years, and there presently doesnt look to be much potential for this pattern to break. The focus today falls on Canadas October employment report. From the technical perspective, the asset has broke a significant Resistance level at 1.3195, which represents the 50-day EMA and the 6 days high. This along with the positive configuration of RSI suggest that we could seen further upside for the day. ENxt Resistance levels are at 1.3213 and 1.3230 (200-day EMA). Support is at the PP and the low of the day , i.e 1.3170-1.3176.



    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

  2. #162
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    Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

    Date : 11th November 2019.

    Events to Look Out For Next Week 11th November 2019.




    * Important events are coming up this week, with UK, China and US inflation and GDP releases.

    Monday 11 November 2019

    * Gross Domestic Product (GBP, GMT 09:30) UK growth has slowed materially this year due to Brexit uncertainty and global trade wars. September forecasts see GDP growth steady, while the preliminary outcome for Q3 is anticipated to slow down.

    Tuesday 12 November 2019

    * ILO & Average Earnings Index 3m/y (GBP, GMT 09:30) UK Earnings with the bonus-excluded figure are seen unchanged at 3.8% y/y in the three months to September. UK ILO unemployment is expected steady at 3.9%.

    * ZEW Economic Sentiment (EUR, GMT 10:00) Economic Sentiment for November is projected at -22.7 from the -22.8 seen last month, as the current conditions indicator for Germany turned negative. The overall Eurozone reading though is expected to decline slightly further to -32.5 from -23.5. A lower than expected outcome ties in with the stagnation in market sentiment.

    Wednesday 13 November 2019

    * Interest Rate Decision, Monetary Policy Statement and Press Conference (NZD, GMT 01:00) The RBNZ is widely expected to proceed with a 25 bp cut to 0.75% as it continues to ease policy amid the slowing in growth. However, it will be interesting to see whether RBNZ will signal further easing in contrast with the latest encouraging economic data.

    * Consumer Price Index (GBP, GMT 09:30) The UK CPI is expected to rebound to a 1.8% y/y rate in October after dipping to 1.7% in September and August from 2.1% in July.

    * Consumer Price Index (USD, GMT 13:30) A 0.3% October headline CPI rise is anticipated with a 0.2% core price increase, following respective September readings of flat and 0.1%. As-expected gains would result in a headline y/y increase of 1.7% for a third consecutive month, just as core prices rise 2.4% y/y for a third consecutive month. An up-tilt in y/y gains into Q1 of 2020 is expected due to harder comparisons and some lift from tariff increases that should leave gains in the 2.4% area, which may help ease concerns about persistent inflation undershoots of the Feds 2% objective.

    * Powells 2-day Testimony (USD, GMT 16:00) Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell testifies before Congress, providing a broad overview of the economy and monetary policy.

    Thursday- 14 November 2019

    * Employment Data (AUD, GMT 00:30) While the unemployment rate is expected to have increase at 5.3% in October, employment change is expected to have stabilized, at 15K compared to 14.7K last month.

    * Retail Sales ex Fuel (GBP, GMT 09:30) UK Retail Sales are expected to have dipped with a -0.9% ex-auto figure on a m/m basis.

    * Gross Domestic Product (EUR, GMT 13:30) Eurozone Q3 GDP growth held steady at 0.2% q/q a better than expected report that highlighted once again that it is a mistake to reduce the Eurozone economy to the German manufacturing sector alone. The same outcome is expected on Thursday as well, at 0.2% q/q for Eurozone preliminary reading.

    Friday 15 November 2019

    * Retail Sales (USD, GMT 14:30) A 0.4% October gains for both the retail sales headline and the ex-auto figures have been estimated, following a -0.3% September headline dip with a -0.1% ex-auto figure. Gasoline prices should give a boost to retail activity given an estimated 4% increase for the CPI gasoline index. Unit vehicle sales should ease in October with a dip to an estimated 17.0 mln pace from 17.2 mln in September. Real consumer spending is expected to grow at a 2.6% rate in Q4, following the 2.9% Q3 clip.

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

  3. #163
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    Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

    Date : 13th November 2019.

    Trading The Kathy Lien Waiting For The Deal & Fader Strategies | 12 November 2019 13th November 2019.




    Two intraday techniques that aim to identify opportunities for traders to capture the initial directional intraday real move of the market. According to Kathy Lien, with these strategies you are looking to wait for the noise in the markets to settle down and to trade the real market price action afterward.

    In this webinar, you will learn about:
    Timing
    Trading Price Action
    Fading the Move


    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.



    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst

    HotForex

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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  5. #164
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    Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

    Date : 14th November 2019.

    USD holds firm; JPY up; AUD & CAD down 14th November 2019.




    Both the Dollar and Yen have continued to hold firm against most other currencies amid a backdrop of sputtering global stock markets.

    AUD: The Australian Dollar dove following the release of Australias October employment report, which showed the unemployment rate ticking higher, to 5.3% from 5.2%. Chinas industrial production growth also slowed sharply in October, to 4.7% y/y verses the median forecast for 5.4% growth, with investment growth falling to a record low. Chinese sales also underwhelmed, while preliminary Japanese Q3 GDP disappointed with growth of just 0.1% q/q, with a 0.7% q/q drop in exports shining a light on the impact of trade protectionism.

    The Australian dollar dove by over 0.5%, driving AUDUSD to a one-month low at 0.6795, and the AUDNZD cross to a 10-week low, at 1.0625, which coincides with the 20-week SMA. The cross has declined by nearly 2% since the RBNZ unexpectedly refrained from cutting interest rates yesterday. A cross today below the 1.0625 could suggest further fall for the medium term, with next Support at the confluence of 50% Fib. and the 200-day SMA, at 1.0560.



    EUR: On a brighter note, German Q3 GDP came in at 0.1% versus the 0.0% median forecast, though Q2 growth was revised lower. The data still helped the Euro lift moderately. EURUSD climbed back above 1.1000 after earlier carving out a fresh one-month low at 1.0994.



    YEN: The Yen remained underpinned by safe-haven positioning, albeit moderate. USDJPY printed a nine-day low at 108.62, while both EURJPY and AUDJPY hit new 1-month lows, with both now amid a fifth consecutive day of decline.

    CAD: USDCAD is amid a third consecutive week of ascent, and has remained buoyant after printing a 5-month peak at 1.3268 yesterday. The high extended the pronounced gains the pairing has seen since the release of Canadas October employment report last Friday, which disappointed and caused a reappraisal in BoC monetary policy expectations. At the same time, USOIL prices have turned flat-to-softer following a 1-month up phase, removing what had been a supportive rug from under the Canadian Dollars feet. For now, USDCAD looks likely to remain upwardly biased, with the next Resistance at Septembers peak, 1.3310, and at Octobers 2 consecutive fractals at 1.3345. Support levels are set at 200-day SMA and 50-day SMA.

    EURCAD: The EURCAD on the other hand, presents a continues slip pf Euro against Loonie. Intraday, the asset forms a triangle since October 25. The support around 1.4554 and 1.4520 is a key gauge that if gives way would open the lows around 1.4420-1.4450. The RSI moving around 50 and MACD lines at neutral suggesting consolidation in the short term. In the medium term meanwhile, the overall outlook remains neutral to positive, while if market holds above 1.4570-1.4580, it would be a confirmation that positive bias is strengthening, with the next daily Resistance area, 1.4670-1.4700.

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.



    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst

    HotForex

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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