daily market analysis from nordfx

Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX

CryptoNews of the Week



- The collapse of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies on December 04 occurred against the background of investors' flight from risky assets and the fall of the stock market. The reason for this was the news about the largest real estate developer in China Evergrande. The media reported that its founder was summoned to the government because of the possible bankruptcy of the company, which could create serious problems for the entire world economy.
Analysts at Galaxy Digital Research called general nervousness due to the new COVID-19 strain "Omicron" and because of the statement by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell about a possible acceleration in the pace of curtailing the monetary stimulus program, as the reason for the fall in the crypto market.

- Bitcoin is unlikely to have time to renew the highs before the end of 2021 and reach the $100,000 mark after the recent crash. This opinion was expressed by the chief investment officer of Bitwise Asset Management Matt Hougan in an interview with Bloomberg. “I think this level can be the goal for 2022,” the top manager said. In his opinion, the growing support from institutions will be the driver, and there are “fundamental driving forces” for this.
Also, giving a forecast for 2022, Hougan predicted an “explosion of activity based on ethereum”. A Bitwise spokesperson highlighted the DeFi, NFT, Web 3.0 and metaverse sectors, as well as the growing potential of altcoins. “Investors will look at Ethereum, Solana or Polygon. They are beginning to understand that cryptocurrency is more than just bitcoin,” says Hougan.

- President Joe Biden's administration has published the United States Anti-Corruption Strategy. This is the first time that such a document mentions cryptocurrencies. “The Ministry of Justice will use the established National Cryptocurrency Law Enforcement Group to focus on comprehensive investigations and prosecutions of the criminal use of digital assets,” the Strategy says. This group will focus on "crimes committed by exchanges, mixing services and money laundering infrastructure entities."

- A poll by Grayscale Investments showed that more than a quarter of US investors (26%) already own bitcoin, more than half of them (55%) have acquired an asset in the last 12 months. 77% of respondents view digital gold as an investment asset and only 20% see bitcoin as a means of payment.
Despite the popularity of the retention strategy, one in six investors sold at least part of their digital assets, 91% of them did so at a profit.

- Back in early June, El Salvador's President Nayib Bukele announced that his country was going to mine BTC using energy from the region's volcanoes. He distributed a video at the end of September talking about the start of construction of the corresponding facility.
However, one of El Salvador's leading ecologists, Ricardo Navarro, believes that BTC mining using geothermal volcanic energy will eventually lead to an environmental disaster. Such energy is quite expensive, and its price is even higher than that of oil. As a result, in his opinion, the country will simply have to purchase more oil. Navarro also insists that "Bukele is not really aware of what is happening with the energy situation."

- The higher the bitcoin rate, the more often it is buried. It is paradoxical, but true: as the quotes grow, skeptics who write obituaries for cryptocurrency become more active. 99bitcoins calculated: the year is not over yet, and BTC has already been predicted death 41 times. The opponents of the coin were even more active only in 2017 and 2018: the premature death of the asset was reported 124 and 93 times then.
The latter of the current obituaries is by economist Bill Blain. Blain calls bitcoin a Ponzi scheme incapable of fulfilling the function of money and argues that cryptocurrency accelerates inflation.
Unlike a number of other crypto critics, Blain has doubts about blockchain technology as well: “From time to time I dig into the myriad of junk that masquerades as the genius of blockchain, mathematics and computational logic that underlies cryptography. Read it yourself: it's 10% fun and 90% complete nonsense,” he writes.

- Well-known analyst and trader Ton Weiss believes that bitcoin has a better chance of reaching a new all-time high this year after the collapse to $42,000. The coin needs to gain a foothold above $53,500 for the bulls to seize the initiative. “I think it will be like a V-turn. We will not have another chance to buy bitcoin below $50,000,” Weiss believes.

- The USA called "Moscow City" a hub for illegal cryptocurrency transactions. Experts of the Recorded Future company, which specializes in cybersecurity, claim that there are about 50 crypto exchanges that are engaged in illegal activities in this business center of the Russian capital. Recorded Future concluded that part of the payments to the ransomware went through "Moscow City", reports The New York Times.
The US authorities announced In September the imposition of sanctions against the Russian crypto exchange Suex, which has offices in Moscow and St. Petersburg. US officials claim Suex facilitated the withdrawal of ransomware and scammers' funds. This is the first time in US history that the authorities have imposed sanctions on a crypto exchange.

— According to Finbold, Americans suffered about $3.94 billion in losses from various cybercrimes in the first three quarters of 2021, which was the highest in history. Thus, cybercriminals stole at least $12.78 million daily. Compared to three quarters of 2020, losses increased by 83% ($1.9 billion). They amounted to about $1.2 billion In the same period of 2019, and $818 million in 2018.

- A well-known investor and economist Louis Navellier believes that a large bubble has been inflated in the stock market, which may lead to a strong correction of risky assets. As a result, bitcoin could drop to $10,000.
Navellier recalled that a serious fall in the rate of the main cryptocurrency also followed during a similar correction of risky assets in February-March 2020.
This time, in his opinion, the situation could be even worse, and bitcoin could lose up to 80% of its capitalization. This may be facilitated by the actions of the US Federal Reserve to tighten monetary policy.
“A fall below $46,000 (200-day moving average) would be a bearish signal. Bitcoin must fall to $28,500 to complete the double top pattern, and such a decline could indicate a drop below $10,000. This is an 80% decline and bitcoin has already shown similar behavior,” the investor said, referring to the end of 2017.


#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

https://nordfx.com/

Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX

Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for December 13 - 17, 2021

EUR/USD: Ahead of the Fed and ECB Meetings

We titled this section of the review “Employment and Inflation Decide Everything” last week. It is these two parameters that determine the monetary policy of central banks in the current situation. The next meeting of the US Federal Reserve will take place on Thursday, December 16, and the markets expect the regulator to speed up the procedure for curtailing incentives, and, perhaps, even increase the interest rate. Undoubtedly, these decisions will be influenced by the macro statistics released in recent days.

The report from the US labor market published on December 09, looks pretty good overall. The number of initial applications for unemployment benefits was expected to grow by 3,000, but it fell by 43,000 to 185,000 instead. This is the minimum in more than half a century, since 1969. On the other hand, the situation with repeated applications turned out to be worse than forecasted: their number increased by 38 thousand instead of falling by 72 thousand. But if we sum up both indicators, we get a reduction in applications by 5,000, which confirms the trend towards the recovery of the labor market. Moreover, the number of open vacancies has grown by 431 thousand: there is already a shortage of labor in the United States.

As for inflation, the higher it is, the greater the chances that the Fed will begin to tighten its monetary policy even faster. And we are talking not only about reducing the repurchase of assets, but also about raising the key rate, which can lead to a further strengthening of the dollar.

Inflation in the United States has currently reached record levels in more than forty years and, judging by the data released on December 10, continues to grow. The consumer price index (CPI) rose to 6.8% on an annualized basis in November from 6.2% in October. As for the core index (Core CPI), it was 4.9% YOY, which is also higher than the previous value (4.6% in October). And the market will be now waiting to see how the Fed will react to these numbers at the upcoming meeting. The head of this organization Jerome Powell and his colleagues convinced investors earlier of their readiness for aggressive monetary restrictions.

About 70% of Financial Times experts believe that the return of monetary policy to the pre-Covid level will proceed quite smoothly, and the interest rate will reach 1.5% by the end of 2023 (it is 0.25% now). At the same time, only 10% of the surveyed analysts expect that the first stage of the rate hike will occur in the Q1 of 2022, 50% are betting on the Q2. As for the complete curtailment of the $120 billion quantitative easing (QE) program, more than half of the respondents believe that this will happen by the end of March of the coming year.

The next meeting of the European Central Bank will be held on the same day as the Fed meeting on Thursday, December 16. We have already written that, unlike the Fed, the ECB plans to take its first step in this direction only in 2023. It will calmly watch the record price increases in the Eurozone countries until then. But there are chances that the European regulator will nevertheless decide to accelerate, following the example of its overseas colleague, and turn from a dove into a hawk. This will be a pleasant surprise for the EUR/USD bulls. And this cannot be ruled out, especially since the hawkish statements of such authoritative officials as Isabel Schnabel are beginning to sound from the depths of the ECB.

This member of the Bank's Governing Council said the other day that asset purchases were an important tool during market shocks and recessions, but the balance of QE advantages and disadvantages deteriorates during the period of economic growth, increasing the risks of financial instability. And the market reacted by albeit short-term, growth of the European currency even to this, in general not binding statement of Mrs. Schnabel.

In anticipation of the Fed and ECB meetings, the EUR/USD pair revolves around Pivot Point 1.1300 for the second consecutive week. This time, it completed the five-day period near this line at 1.1316. Among experts, 75% expect further strengthening of the US currency, 20% are betting on the growth of the euro. The remaining 5% have taken a neutral position.

But the two-week sideways trend causes confusion and discord among the indicators on D1. As for trend indicators, 60% are colored red, 40% are green. As for oscillators, 40% point to the south, 30% to the north and another 30% to the east. Resistance levels are located in the zones and at levels 1.1355, 1.1380, 1.1435-1.1465 and 1525. The nearest support level is 1.1300, then 1.1265, 1.1225, 1.1185, then 1.1075-1.1100

As for the events of the coming week, in addition to the meetings of the Central Banks and subsequent comments of their management, the release of statistics on retail sales in the US on Wednesday December 15, as well as the publication of data on business activity in Germany and the Eurozone on December 16 should be noted. In addition, a meeting of the European Council will take place on Thursday and Friday.

GBP/USD: Ahead of Fed and Bank of England Meetings

December 16 will bring a lot of excitement to traders: in addition to the Fed and the ECB, the Bank of England will also make a decision on further monetary policy and interest rates on this day. The value of the business activity index in the UK services sector Markit will become known the same day. In addition, data on unemployment will be released on Tuesday December 14 and inflation in the UK consumer market on Wednesday 15 December.

The pound weakened last week after the UK government introduced new quarantine measures due to a new strain of COVID-19. According to statistics, the number of infections with the Omicron strain doubles every two to three days. Simple calculations show that with such dynamics, the number of infections may exceed 1 million by the end of the month (10.6 million cases have been recorded in the country since the beginning of the pandemic). The situation is of concern for investors, and therefore they do want to receive information from the Bank of England whether the Omicron coronavirus strain has influenced the plans to curtail the stimulus program.

The bulls for the GBP/USD pair were not pleased with weak macro-economic statistics, which turned out to be worse than forecasted. Also, the pound continues to be under pressure from the consequences of Brexit and significant disagreements between the EU and the UK over the Northern Ireland Protocol, due to which, according to British officials, the country is faced with a shortage of goods and supply disruptions.

At the same time, 40% of analysts still hope for the pair to grow. But if the Bank of England does not raise rates again, their hopes will melt like the morning fog over London. And given the government's position on quarantine, the regulator is highly likely to leave the rate unchanged at least until February 2022. The majority (60%) of the experts vote for this outcome of the meeting.

Pending regulatory decisions, the GBP/USD pair completed the session in the same way it traded a week ago: in the 1.3265 zone. However, despite this, 75% of the trend indicators on D1 still support the bears. Among the oscillators there are 80% of them, the remaining 20% turned upward.

Task No.1 for the bulls is to overcome the key resistance in the 1.3285-1.3300 zone. And this will not be a problem if the Bank of England does raise the interest rate on December 16. Subsequent resistances are located at levels 1.3360, 1.3410, 1.3475, 1.3515, 1.3570, 1.3610, 1.3735, 1.3835. The nearest support is located in the 1.3210-1.3220 zone, followed by the levels 1.3195, 1.3160, 1.3135, 1.3075. In case of a breakout of the latter, the pair may fall down to the horizon of 1.2960.

USD/JPY: The Yen Holds Defense. It holds it so far



If the EUR/USD pair revolves around 1.1300 for the second week, USD/JPY does the same, only around 113.30. The risk appetites that returned to the market and pushed up the stock indices, could not have any significant effect on the Japanese currency, which was supported by the statement of the member of the Board of the Bank of Japan Hitoshi Suzuki. He said commenting on the COVID-19 situation that if the US Federal Reserve starts to cut QE and raises interest rates faster than expected, the Bank of Japan could also raise long-term rates. According to Hitoshi Suzuki, rates may rise as soon as the coronavirus uncertainty disappears, which will help the Japanese economy continue to recover. It is certainly not worth expecting that the increase will take place at the next meeting of the regulator on Friday, December 17. The rate is most likely to remain at the previous negative level of -0.1%.

The deputy head of the Bank Masayoshi Amamiya tried to add optimism to investors. The country's economy was in stagnation, but, according to the regulator's calculations, it should recover during 2022, even despite the Omicron strain. The official’s comments came after the very weak data on Japan's GDP for the Q3 were released on Wednesday, December 8. They showed a drop of 0.9% against the previous value of minus 0.8% and a positive forecast of +0.4%.

Giving the previous forecast, most experts expected the USD/JPY pair to make another attempt to return to the 113.40-114.40 channel. This is exactly what happened: the dollar began to advance, and it rose to the height of 113.95 on December 8, although then there followed a trend reversal a finish at the lower border of the channel, at 113.40.

As for the forecast for the coming week, 80% of experts believe that the pair will go up again with the help of the US Federal Reserve and, possibly, even break through the upper border of the 113.40-114.40 channel. The resistance levels are 113.70, 114.00, 114.40, 114.70, 115.00 and 115.50, the long-term target of the bulls is the December 2016 high of 118.65. Only 20% of analysts vote for the bearish scenario. The nearest support level is 112.55, then 112.00 and 111.65.

Among the oscillators on D1, 60% are still facing south, 30% remain neutral, and the remaining 10% have turned north. Trend indicators have a 50-50 draw.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: Overnight Crash in the Thin Market

There is still no definite explanation why bitcoin fell below $42,000 on the night of December 04. However, it is worth paying attention to the fact that the fall of the crypto market took place together with the fall of the stock market and the flight of investors from risky assets. The reason for this was the news about the largest real estate developer in China Evergrande. The media reported that its founder was summoned to the government because of the possible bankruptcy of the company, which could create serious problems for the entire world economy.

Galaxy Digital Research analysts believe that is not the case. The triggers for the collapse, in their opinion, were the general nervousness due to the new COVID-19 strain Omicron and the statement by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell about a possible faster curtailment of the QE program.

Be that as it may but having set a record on November 10 at the height of $68,780, the flagship cryptocurrency is rolling down for the fifth week in a row. And the optimism of experts and investors also decreases along with its value.

Bitwise Asset Management Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan believes that bitcoin is now unlikely to have time to update the highs and reach $100,000 before the end of 2021. “I think this level could be the goal for 2022,” said the top manager in an interview with Bloomberg. Growth should be driven by growing support from institutions, and for this, in his opinion, there are “fundamental driving forces”.

Louis Navellier, a famous investor and economist, believes that the “driving forces”, on the contrary, are directed downwards. A large bubble has been inflated in the stock market, which could lead to a strong correction of risky assets, as a result of which bitcoin could fall to $10,000.

Navellier recalled that a serious drop in the rate of the main cryptocurrency also followed during a similar correction in February-March 2020. This time, in his opinion, the situation could be even worse, and bitcoin could lose up to 80% of its capitalization. And this may be facilitated by the actions of the US Federal Reserve to tighten monetary policy.

“A fall below $46,000 (200-day moving average) would be a bearish signal. Bitcoin must fall to $28,500 to complete the double top pattern, and such a decline could indicate a drop below $10,000. This is an 80% decline and bitcoin has already shown similar behavior,” the investor said, referring to the end of 2017.

Recall that then, a prolonged fall followed after a dizzying rise to $19,270. It lasted about a year and was called the crypto winter, during which the BTC/USD pair lost almost 85%.

A sharp turn to the south occurred not only in 2017, but also in the second half of 2019. And, of course, one cannot but recall a very recent example: April-July of this year, when bitcoin quotes sank 55% in three months.

These bearish waves hit the pockets and wallets of speculators hard and made us talk about a possible complete and final collapse of the crypto market once again. 99bitcoins calculated: the year is not over yet, and BTC has already been predicted death 41 times. The opponents of the coin were even more active only in 2017 and 2018: the premature death of the asset was reported 124 and 93 times then.

The latter of the current obituaries is by economist Bill Blain. Blain calls bitcoin a Ponzi scheme incapable of fulfilling the function of money, and argues that cryptocurrency accelerates inflation. Moreover, unlike a number of other crypto critics, Blain also doubts the blockchain technology: “From time to time, I dig through the myriad of garbage that disguises itself as the genius of the blockchain, mathematics and computational logic underlying cryptography... This is 10% fascinating and 90% complete nonsense,” he writes.

Well-known analyst and trader Ton Weiss, unlike Bill Blain and Louis Navellier, believes that it is too early to bury cryptocurrency. In his opinion, bitcoin has a better chance of reaching a new all-time high this year after the current collapse. The coin needs to gain a foothold above $53,500 for the bulls to seize the initiative. “I think it will be like a V-turn. We will not have another chance to buy bitcoin below $50,000,” Weiss believes.

If, under negative circumstances, the decline still continues, it will certainly attract the interest of long-term holders. Every time a pullback occurs, investors begin to buy out the fall in anticipation of a new rise in price, and do not allow the crypto market to fall into an uncontrolled collapse.

So large bitcoin holders (from 100 to 10 thousand BTC) have already bought 67,000 coins last week. Of course, this is not a lot. Therefore, there is no need to talk about a return to the bullish trend yet. On the contrary, the advantage is still in the hands (or rather, in their paws) of the bears who are trying to push the BTC/USD pair below the $46,000-48,000 zone, where the 200-day moving average passes.

At the time of writing the review (on the night of December 10 to December 11), the total capitalization of the crypto market is $2.215 trillion (minus 25% compared to the historical maximum of November 10). The Crypto Fear & Greed Index is still in the Extreme Fear zone at 24 points. But the bitcoin dominance index dropped to 39.88%, yielding more and more "territory" to its main competitor, ethereum, whose market share reached 22%. (For comparison, 71.86% for BTC and 10.63% for ETH at the very beginning of the year).

The ETH/USD chart shows clearly that ethereum is recovering significantly better than bitcoin after falling on December 04. And if the BTC/USD pair has grown by a little more than 55% over the past five months, the increase in ETH/USD was more than 130%.

The main driver of its growth in recent months has been the burning of coins for transactions on the network and the fact that the rate of their burning outstrips the rate of their production. The ethereum network has already burned more than 1 million coins since the activation of the London hard fork.

Rahul Rai, the manager of the cryptocurrency fund BlockTower Capital, believes that the versatility of the ethereum blockchain will be the main factor that will attract both developers and investors. He is confident that if ethereum manages to restart the global financial system, its market will be much larger than that of bitcoin in the future. The crypto millionaire predicts that it may be as early as mid-2022. ETH will be the first cryptocurrency in terms of capitalization.

Analysts of the American investment bank JPMorgan made a similar statement in April. In their opinion, bitcoin is a consumer commodity. It can compete with precious metals and be seen as a store of value, but it will give way to ethereum in the long run, which is the pillar of the cryptocurrency economy.

Director of Bitwise Asset Management Matt Hougan predicted an "explosion of activity based on ethereum" in his forecast for 2022 as well. “Investors will look at Ethereum, Solana or Polygon. They are beginning to understand that cryptocurrency is more than just bitcoin,” says Hougan.

***

We are witnessing an explosion in the activity of NordFX clients, who continue to accumulate lottery tickets, because the New Year's draw of its Super Lottery will take place very soon. And the more tickets, the more chances you have to win one or more prizes ranging from $500 to $20,000.

There is very little time left, but you can still make it. It is very easy to participate. All the details are available on the NordFX website.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.



#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

https://nordfx.com/

Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX

CryptoNews of the Week



- Miners have already mined 90% of the coins from the total bitcoin emission. The bitcoin network has reached the point at block No. 714000 where it remains to mine 2.1 million BTC, or 10% of the available emission volume. However, the total cryptocurrency supply will not be equal to 21 million coins, as provided by the algorithm. Chainalysis has calculated that 3.79 million BTC could be lost forever. In theory, these coins do exist, but they do not circulate.
Also, about 1 million BTC is stored at addresses that are associated with the creator of the first cryptocurrency, Satoshi Nakamoto. These bitcoins were mined early in the development of the network and have not moved since then. Nakamoto left his last public message 11 years ago.
Digital gold is expected to reach its emission limit around 2140 as regular halvings gradually lead to a zero-emission rate.

- According to the Bitstamp cryptocurrency exchange, the number of women investing in cryptocurrency increased by 198% in the first three quarters of 2021compared to the same period in 2020. The highest percentage of new investors are women between the ages of 30 and 35. It is curious that the most successful female investors and traders are the age group from 55 to 60 years old. They tend to invest larger amounts and earn higher returns.
The main reason for this influx is likely the proliferation of information about cryptocurrencies during the coronavirus pandemic. COVID-19 forced many countries to enter lockdowns, which made citizens stay at home for a long time. It is natural that when left without work, people were forced to look for new opportunities to generate income. In addition, fiat currencies are depreciating catastrophically in many countries.
However, despite the influx of women into what was previously considered predominantly male, gender balance will still take time. According to a report called Financial Tribes You Need to Know, 66% of investors in the cryptocurrency industry are still male.

- The new German government has included cryptocurrencies and blockchain technology in the list of the country's main development directions for the next four years. And now German savings banks have started working on a cryptocurrency wallet project. According to media reports, the plan provides for the possibility of buying and selling digital assets directly through accounts, and customers will not have to undergo additional verification procedures.
For reference: there are about 370 savings banks in Germany. Their aggregate database has about 50 million customers, and assets under management are estimated at €1.4 trillion.

- According to IntoTheBlock experts, if BTC does not hold above $48,000, the risks of its fall to $43,000 will increase, and it is only at this level that the coin will be able to find a local bottom. About 344,000 wallets purchased 395,000 coins at prices in the area of this support. It is these investors who must prevent further pullback so as not to go into the red.

- Attackers hacked the personal Twitter of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. They wrote on his behalf about the recognition of the first cryptocurrency as a legal means of payment in the country. The publication also said that India bought 500 BTC and plans to distribute it to citizens. Attackers also attached a link to a fraudulent site allegedly for citizens to receive their share of coins. As of now, the fake tweet has been deleted.

- When the news feed is calm enough, traders begin to pay more attention to technical analysis. And now the legendary trader and techno analyst Peter Brandt warned investors that there is a dangerous double top pattern on the chart of the first cryptocurrency. However, according to a number of experts, this does not mean that the pattern will eventually be fully formed and that the market will go into a deeper correction.
The analytical department of Bestchange believes that despite the high risks of continuing the local fall, the main cryptocurrency is able to go up powerfully in the medium term. “The situation is extremely ambiguous today, but mid-term forecasts until mid-2022 are still positive. Bitcoin needs to lose at least half of its capitalization and securely gain a foothold at levels below $28,000-30,000 in order to abandon most positive scenarios. Until this happens, the hope for $100,000 continues to be relevant,” Bestchange believes.
According to Nikita Soshnikov, director of Alfacash crypto service, the market will face a long period of depressed sentiment if the double top pattern is confirmed. However, “there is no question of any bitcoin at $5,000 or even $15,000. You can simply forget about such prices for cryptocurrency. But it may well fall below $40,000 and stay at this level for several weeks. I even admit a decline in the rate to $35,000, but going below this mark is unlikely,” the expert predicted.

- Elon Musk was named TIME's Person of the Year. The publication noted the impact of the founder of Tesla and SpaceX on life on Earth and “possibly beyond”. "This is a man who seeks to save our planet and help us populate a new one: a jester, a genius, a provocateur, a seer, an industrialist, a showman, a boor, a crazy hybrid of Edison, Barnum, Andrew Carnegie and Dr. Manhattan from The Watchmen," - this is how TIME characterizes the richest person on the planet with a fortune of $265 billion.
When asked by a TIME reporter regarding cryptocurrencies, Musk replied that he is “not such a big opponent of fiat. But the cryptocurrency has advantages, since any government, whatever it may be, has a desire to issue." “I was instrumental in the creation of PayPal. And there are few who understand [the monetary system] better than I do,” multi-billionaire said. However, he doubted that digital assets can replace fiat. “Bitcoin can serve as a store of value, but it cannot be a good substitute for currencies for payments. In this regard, even Dogecoin created as a joke is better suited.”
Among other things, Musk said in the interview with TIME that he would not be held responsible for how the markets react to his tweets: “Markets are in motion all the time on their own for no reason. Is the reaction to my statements significantly different from the random wanderings that they already have? I do not think so. As you can see from my tweets, this is humor, which I find funny, but not everyone agrees. "

- The Weiss Crypto rating agency still adheres to an optimistic scenario despite the protracted correction of the flagship cryptocurrency. Agency analysts support the forecast of colleagues from Bloomberg, who previously announced a high probability of a coin breakthrough to $100,000 in 2022.
The chances of reaching this psychological mark exceed the risks of a further fall, according to the Weiss Crypto review. Against the backdrop of the confrontation with China, the United States will accelerate the legalization of the crypto sphere, which will positively affect the value of digital currencies.
The authors of the study emphasize that cryptocurrency will be the main beneficiary of the fall of the stock market in the context of tightening the monetary policy by the Fed. Investors can abandon stocks in favor of digital currency as a hedging tool. In addition, the decline in the yield on US Treasury bonds may also have a positive effect on the quotes of BTC and ETH.

- According to Michael van de Poppe, creator of the Material Indicators analytical resource, bearish sentiment still prevails among whales. “They have not bought a single drawdown since the beginning of October and have only been selling lately,” he explained.
However, following the results of the US Federal Reserve meeting this week, the BTC rate may complete the correction and move to growth on the triggering of the “sell on rumors, buy on the news” rule. A similar scenario emerges based on the analysis of the order book of the Bitfinex exchange. Traders started placing buy orders in the range of $44,500-$46,000, while at the time of writing, the first cryptocurrency is trading above $47,000.


#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

https://nordfx.com/

Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX

Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for December 20 - 24, 2021

EUR/USD: Old News from the Fed And the ECB

The past week was the week of the Central Banks. The US Federal Reserve met on Wednesday, December 15, for the last time this year, the ECB and the Bank of England on December 16, and the Bank of Japan at the end of the working week, on Friday, December 17.

There is a trading model, FIFO: short for “first in, first out”. So, we will follow it, and we will begin to consider the results of the meetings in order in which they took place.

The first, as already mentioned, was the meeting of the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) of the US Federal Reserve. Some investors expected any radical decisions from it, and the rhetoric of representatives of the Federal Reserve on Wednesday was more hawkish than expected. This pushed the EUR/USD pair towards the lower limit of the three-week side channel. However, having reached the level of 1.1220, it turned around and the dollar began to lose ground.

The market realized that, in fact, almost all parameters of the monetary policy remained unchanged. Only the quantitative easing (QE) program was revised: the rate of reduction in asset purchases increased from $15 billion to $30 billion per month. The program can be completely closed in March-April 2022.

The outlook for the labor market was slightly improved but was accompanied by concerns about the possible emergence of "new virus variants". Core inflation in 2022 may also be slightly higher: not 2.3%, as previously expected, but 2.7%. Inflation for 2023 is projected to grow by only 0.1%, and it will remain unchanged in 2024.

According to the Financial Times, despite aggressive statements, the Fed still considers inflation a temporary phenomenon, and expects to return it to the target range within two years, gradually raising federal funds rates.

The key interest rate was left unchanged at 0.25% at the last meeting. As for the regulator's plans for next year, if it was about two or three rate hikes earlier, the Fed's dot chart showed that there should be three of them now. But this is just a declaration of intentions that can be realized if the macroeconomic situation develops as expected by the regulator.

In general, all statements of the American central bank were devoid of any specifics this time. Markets learned what they already knew before. Therefore, their reaction was appropriate: the EUR/USD pair turned around and went north. Having passed 140 points on Thursday, December 16, it was already at the upper border of the side channel, at the level of 1.1360.

(Of course, this was not without the help of the pound, which, thanks to the decision of the Bank of England, put a lot of pressure on the dollar. We will talk about this in more detail below).

The results of the meeting of the European Central Bank did not surprise investors either. Like the Fed, the European regulator also raised its inflation forecast for next year. And it also considers it a temporary phenomenon. It declares this openly though and does not consider it necessary to fight it now. It was announced Once again that the refinancing rate will remain at the current level until inflation reaches the target level of 2.0%, at which it will remain for a long time. As a result, the “main” result of the meeting was the statement of the head of the bank, Christine Lagarde, that “it is very unlikely that we will raise rates in 2022”. And this was already known to everyone.

The dovish position of the ECB did not allow the EUR/USD pair to rise above the borders of the side channel, and anxiety about the Omicron strain pushed it sharply down, and it ended week trading session at the level of 1.1238.

As for the coming week, it is pre-Christmas. And seven days after Christmas, it's New Year's Eve. In the absence of large players, the market these days is quite thin, liquidity is low, which can be fraught with all sorts of surprises. This is increased volatility, gaps with serious gaps in quotations, and what traders call the “Santa Claus Rally”. Although, of course, the opposite option is also possible: with "lazy" movement of pairs in a narrow range.

As for the experts, 50% expect further strengthening of the US currency and the fall of the EUR/USD pair, 30% are betting on the growth of the euro. The remaining 20% have taken a neutral position. Among the oscillators on D1, 80% point to the south (although 15% of them are in the oversold zone), 10% point north, and 10% point east. 100% of the trend indicators side with the bears.

Resistance levels are in the zones and at the levels 1.1265, 1.1300, 1.1355, 1.1380, 1.1435-1.1465 and 1525. The nearest support level is 1.1225, then 1.1185 and 1.1075-1.1100

The economic agenda of the year is practically exhausted, and no extra-important news is expected in the coming week. As for the reasons for breaking the trend or increased volatility, we can note the publication of annual data on US GDP on Wednesday December 22, and data on orders on capital goods and durable goods published by the U.S. Census Bureau the next day, December 23.

GBP/USD: The Bank of England's First Step



We noted in the previous review that the No.1 task for the GBP/USD bulls is to overcome the key resistance in the 1.3285-1.3300 zone. And we predicted that if the Bank of England did raise the interest rate on December 16, it would not be a problem. This is exactly what happened.

While the Fed and the ECB are only swinging, the Bank of England has moved to attack rising prices. After inflation in the UK rose to 5.1%, reaching a 10-year peak, the regulator raised the rate for the first time in three years from 0.1% to 0.25%. The decision was made despite the worsening epidemiological situation due to the new Omicron coronavirus strain. However, according to the head of the Bank of England Andrew Bailey, it is more important to curb the price pressure on the economy and society.

Of course, the rate hike by 15 basis points cannot be called significant, but, most importantly, the first step has already been taken, and the market expects the second rate hike in February.

It is difficult to say why many financial publications write that the current decision of the Bank of England came as a complete surprise. If you look at our previous forecast, 40% of experts predicted a rate hike and, as a result, the subsequent strengthening of the pound.

But the British currency failed to consolidate the victory. Having risen on Thursday December 16 to the high of 1.3373, the GBP/USD pair turned sharply and went down. Investors began to sell off the pound due to growing concerns about Omicron. Risk aversion contributed to the strengthening of the safer dollar and, accordingly, dealt a blow to the stock indices and quotes of the euro and the British pound, which ended the five-day period at 1.3235.

The experts' forecast for the coming week looks rather pre-holiday, that is, uncertain. 35% of them side with the bulls, the same number side with the bears, and the remaining 30% prefer not to take sides. Among the oscillators on D1, the situation is similar: 30% of them indicate buying, 45% are selling, and the remaining 25% advise to take a break and do nothing for now. The trend indicators have a fundamentally different mood: 100% are colored red.

The supports are located at 1.3210-1.3220, then 1.3170-1.3190, 1.3135, 1.3075. In case of a breakout of the latter, the pair may fall down to the horizon of 1.2960. Zones and resistance levels - 1.3285-1.3300, 1.3340, 1.3370, 1.3410, 1.3475, 1.3515, 1.3570, 1.3610, 1.3735, 1.3835.

There will also be little macro-statistics important for the pound next week. Of particular interest are the UK GDP data for the Q3, which will be released on Wednesday, December 22. But the markets will focus on the situation with the spread of the new COVID-19 wave.

USD/JPY: The Sideways Trend Continues

The one that is not afraid of risk aversion is the yen. On the contrary, it is only happy with this. Giving the previous forecast, the overwhelming majority of experts (80%) expected that with the help of the US Federal Reserve, the USD/JPY pair would go up and, perhaps, break the upper boundary of the 113.40-114.40 channel. This is exactly what happened: the dollar began to advance, and the pair was noted at the height of 114.25 on December 15. Then, due to the panic of investors, it managed to win back losses and found a local bottom, dropping to 113.13, and the final chord sounded in the center of the weekly trading range: at the level of 113.70.

It is difficult to predict what will happen with Omicron and how the situation will affect the panic in the markets. So far, the US currency is leading with a slight margin in the struggle between the yen and the dollar: 55% of analysts have voted for the growth of the USD/JPY pair, 45% for its fall.

The readings of technical indicators just confirm the sideways movement of the pair along the horizon 113.50 for almost 10 last weeks. Among the oscillators, 30% look south on D1, 35% remain neutral, and the remaining 35% look north. Among trend indicators, green has a slight advantage, 60% to 40%.

Support levels are 113.20, 112.70, 112.00, 111.60 and 111.20. Resistance levels are 114.00, 114.25, 115.00 and 115.50.

And now the promised information about the meeting of the Bank of Japan, which, it seems, is not at all interested in strengthening its currency. And although the regulator reduced the volume of emergency financing related to the pandemic on Friday, December 17, it, as expected, left the interest rate unchanged, at the previous negative level, minus 0.1%.

The bank retained its ultra-soft policies and measures to support small businesses, and its head Haruhiko Kuroda said at the press conference that a weak yen would rather support the Japanese economy than harm it. According to the official, if the yen falls, it will support exports and corporate profits. So we can confidently say that the monetary policy of this regulator will remain one of the most dovish in the foreseeable future.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: Everything Is Complicated: It will be Either Winter, Or Spring Straight Away

Things are ambiguous in the crypto market. The total capitalization has remained almost unchanged over the past 7 days and amounts to $2.270 trillion ($2.215 trillion a week ago). The Crypto Fear & Greed Index made only a small step up from 24 points and shifted from the Extreme Fear zone to the Fear zone, up to 29 points.

In this situation, some experts hope for the recovery of the upward trend of major coins, while others, on the contrary, predict a further fall. And then the end of 2017 comes to mind. Then, having conquered the $19,270 high in December, bitcoin collapsed instead of breaking above the iconic $20,000. It was already at $5,900 at the beginning of February 2018, losing 70% of its value and plunging investors and crypto enthusiasts into a state of deepest depression. And then long months of expectations and hopes followed, dubbed "crypto winter". The first hints of warming appeared only in March 2019, and the real crypto spring came a year later, in March 2020.

It isprecisely the possible onset of a new "ice age" that pessimists are talking about. We have already quoted renowned investor and economist Louis Navellier. According to him, a large bubble has been inflated in the stock market, which could lead to a strong correction of risky assets, as a result of which bitcoin could fall to $10,000. Navellier, as well as another specialist, legendary trader and techno-analyst Peter Brandt, warned investors that a dangerous “double top” pattern is observed on the chart of the first cryptocurrency. “A fall below $46,000 (200-day moving average) will be a bearish signal,” he writes. “Bitcoin must fall to $28,500 to complete the double top figure, and such a decline may indicate a fall below $10,000.”

According to Nikita Soshnikov, director of Alfacash crypto service, the market will face a long period of depressed sentiment if the double top pattern is confirmed. However, “there is no question of bitcoin for $5,000 or even $15,000,” the expert reassures. “You can simply forget about such cryptocurrency prices. But it may well fall below $40,000 and stay at this level for several weeks. I even admit a decline in the rate to $35,000 but going below this mark is unlikely”.

According to Michael van de Poppe, creator of the Material Indicators analytical resource, bearish sentiment still prevails among whales. "They haven't bought a single drawdown since early October," he says, "and have only been selling lately." And if you look at the chart of the past two weeks, you can clearly see how the bears are trying to push the BTC/USD pair below the $46,000 zone, where the 200-day moving average passes.

At the time of writing, the struggle continues. It seems that the initiative returned to the bears at the end of the working week. The markets were hit by another wave of panic caused by the Omicron coronavirus strain, and the sale of risky assets, including cryptocurrencies, began. The pair dipped to $45,525 late on Friday, December 17 but then rallied back to $46,500. According to IntoTheBlock specialists, BTC has a lot of chances to fall to the $43,000 zone in such a situation. It is only at this level that the coin will be able to find the local bottom. About 344,000 wallets purchased 395,000 coins at prices in the area of this support. It is these investors who must prevent further pullback so as not to go into the red.

A slightly different support zone is emerging based on the analysis of the order book of the Bitfinex exchange. Its data indicate that a significant amount of orders to buy bitcoin was placed in the range of $44,500-$46,000.

Christmas and New Year are still kind and happy holidays. Therefore, on their eve, we would like to complete the forecast on a more or less positive note. The appearance of a “double top” pattern on the chart, according to a number of experts, does not at all mean that it will eventually be fully formed and that the market will go into a deeper correction.

The analytical department of Bestchange believes that despite the high risks of continuing the local fall, the main cryptocurrency is able to go up powerfully in the medium term. “The situation is extremely ambiguous today, but mid-term forecasts until mid-2022 are still positive. Bitcoin needs to lose at least half of its capitalization and securely gain a foothold at levels below $28,000-30,000 in order to abandon most positive scenarios. Until this happens, the hope for $100,000 continues to be relevant,” Bestchange believes.

Weiss Crypto rating agency also points to this magic figure. Despite the protracted correction, it still adheres to the optimistic scenario. Agency analysts support the forecast of colleagues from Bloomberg, who previously announced a high probability of a coin breakthrough to $100,000 in 2022.

The chances of reaching this psychological mark exceed the risks of a further fall, according to the Weiss Crypto review. Against the backdrop of the confrontation with China, the United States will accelerate the legalization of the crypto sphere, which will positively affect the value of digital currencies.

The authors of the study emphasize that cryptocurrency will be the main beneficiary of the fall of the stock market in the context of tightening the monetary policy by the Fed. Investors can abandon stocks in favor of digital currency as a hedging tool. In addition, the decline in the yield on US Treasury bonds may also have a positive effect on the quotes of BTC and ETH.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

https://nordfx.com/

Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX

CryptoNews of the Week



- After the mining ban in China, local bitcoin miners still generate up to 20% of the total hashrate of the cryptocurrency network, CNBC reports with reference to experts.
One of the miners, who identified himself as Ben, told the TV channel how local industry players work illegally. He has been mining since 2015 and has 6,000 devices. After the repressions started, Ben distributed equipment across multiple sites so as not to show too high power consumption. Ben installed 1000 units throughout the country, wherever he could get the capacity. And 5,000 miners are connected directly to two small hydroelectric power plants in Sichuan province.
He explained that mining is being monitored for suspicious traffic by one of the largest telecommunications companies, China Telecom, which transmits information to the government.

- Regulatory clarity and an influx of institutional capital are needed to continue the growth of the cryptocurrency market, and 2022 "promises to be interesting for the industry." This opinion was expressed by one of the partners of the investment company The Spartan Group known as SpartanBlack.
“Investors have asked me repeatedly in the past few weeks when the crypto winter is coming,” he writes. "The last three crypto winters have traumatized the collective psyche of investors so much that everyone has become cautious after the powerful year 2021." According to the observations of the financier, many cryptocurrency holders took profits after each strong upward price movement. Therefore, there was no FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) and no parabolic movement of quotes, as in the previous three phases of the bull market.
The expert expressed the opinion that a powerful catalyst is needed for a parabolic price movement: for example, the introduction of crypto-friendly rules by American regulators. This will open up access to digital currencies for large financial institutions.

- Investor interest in existing crypto projects will continue in 2022, and exchange operators and data providers will benefit the most. This forecast was given by Larry Cermak, an analyst and vice president of The Block.
In his opinion, the market will continue to grow, but it will become more thoughtful. And the focus will be on Layer 2 protocols enabling faster and cheaper transactions on top of blockchains. The key to this will be the existence of decentralized applications.

- Co-founder and CEO of Kraken exchange Jesse Powell had previously predicted bitcoin would rise above $100,000 by the end of the year. Now he does not exclude a further decline in the cryptocurrency market. Powell said in a conversation with Bloomberg that he believes the onset of a new crypto winter is possible and that the bitcoin market has historically been characterized by cyclical behaviour, with halving as its starting point.
That being said, Powell believes that if bitcoin falls below $40,000, investors will seize the opportunity to buy. “I think a lot of people see values below $40,000 as a buying opportunity. Personally, I was buying when the market approached $30,000 a few months ago. I think many are just waiting for a reliable minimum," the Kraken CEO said.

- Founder of the investment company Bridgewater Associates, billionaire Ray Dalio, called traditional currencies a problem asset in a comment to Yahoo Finance. “Most investors consider fiat money to be the safest investment. And I think this is the worst investment,” he said. According to Dalio, you should not judge the profitability of your assets in nominal terms, but you need to make an adjustment for inflation. So, investors lost 4-5% due to the inflation of the US dollar in 2021.
Dalio also admitted that he invested in ethereum, but did not give an exact figure, he only said that he holds part of the portfolio in cryptocurrencies in order to diversify. “I see them as alternative money. It is impressive that digital currencies have lasted 10-11 years: they have not been hacked and they have a level of acceptance. "

- An American private National Bureau of Economic Research published a study that claims that 10,000 accounts, or 0.01% of all bitcoin holders, own 5 million BTC, or 27% of all coins in circulation (18.9 million). This suggests that bitcoin is not as decentralized as people think. “Despite 14 years of existence and the buzz it has made, it is still a very concentrated ecosystem,” said Professor Antoinette Shoar of the MIT Sloan School of Management.
According to the founder of Quantum Economics, Mati Greenspan, a significant part of the BTC turnover is still controlled by the anonymous creator of bitcoin Satoshi Nakamoto. “Satoshi's own coins alone account for more than 5%,” Greenspan told Cointelegraph.

- Cryptocurrency analyst Justin Bennett spoke about the possible exit of bitcoin from the correction phase and the return of the bullish trend. After retesting the Dec 4 lows close to $40,000, he said, bitcoin could form a double bottom structure and then rally to above $60,000.
Bennett continues to give bitcoin a bullish outlook, even if it plunges below the important psychological level of $40,000. “I’m not against BTC falling below $40,000,” he says, “although many believe that in this case, we may face a bearish market. Yes, we will lose support for the December 4 low, but everyone wants to see higher highs. Even if the retesting of the $35,000 level happens, you need to understand that you could already see a similar situation at the beginning of 2021."

- Cryptanalyst and trader Benjamin Cowen told his 663,000 YouTube subscribers what he thinks ethereum will have in 2022. To do this, he looked at the consolidation phases in 2016 and 2017, which preceded massive upward breakouts. Cowen noted that the leading altcoin is likely to have a combination of the two phases in the near future.
The analyst believes that the ethereum consolidation could last until mid-2022, but the likely end result will be a breakout. “I believe ethereum will hit record highs in 2022 and may continue to grow in 2023, but it’s hard to count on at the moment,” he says. “I imagine the sideways movement will continue for a while, especially with bitcoin looking somewhat weak at the moment,” continues Cowen. “I don’t know how high ETH can go up afterwards. I think $10,000 is a reasonable goal, we could even reach $20,000. "

- Michael van de Poppe, trader at the Amsterdam Stock Exchange, has released another review in which he talks about what will happen in the cryptocurrency market in the coming months and years.
The analyst believes that bitcoin will still bottom in the $40,000 area in the winter, after which it will go up again. From Van de Poppe's point of view, the main sign that the bullish cycle has not yet reached its top is the fact that we have not yet seen a phase of euphoria in the market, and we are not currently seeing massive selling from long-term coin holders. This means that we are in the middle of a bullish cycle.
“I think bitcoin will copy the rally that was seen in 2020 and 2021,” said the famous trader. According to this scenario, the vertical take-off of 2020 and 2021 will repeat in the Q1-2 of 2022, ending at around $530,000. After that, there will be a long bearish market until a new bullish phase in 2024. This bearish market may coincide with the global economic crisis.
But there is another scenario as well. It suggests that bitcoin remains “relatively calm” with ethereum as the key trigger. In this case, periods of bitcoin growth will be interrupted by periods of consolidation. The growth of the main cryptocurrency will not be as pronounced as in the first case, and it will reach "only" the height of $100,000-120,000 in 2022.


#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

https://nordfx.com/

Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX

Forecast: What to Expect from the Euro and the Dollar in 2022

It is always interesting to know whose predictions came true and whose predictions did not. Exactly a year ago, we published forecasts given by experts from leading world banks regarding the EUR/USD rate for 2021, and now we can decide which of them was right and to what extent. Or, on the contrary, which one was wrong.




Last Year's Forecast: They Were Wrong after All

December 2019 There was no talk of a global pandemic that month, when the first outbreak of COVID-19 was recorded in Wuhan, China. But even then, the Financial Times published a forecast of Citigroup experts that the quantitative easing (QE) policy pursued by the US Federal Reserve and pumping the market with cheap dollar liquidity could cause the dollar to fall. Colleagues from Citigroup were supported then by analysts at the Swiss bank Lombard Odier, as well as one of the world's largest investment companies, BlackRock.

As the pandemic raged on, this scenario began to prove its case. Since the last decade of March, the dollar began to lose ground, and the EUR/USD pair crawled up. Starting on March 22, 2020, from 1.0630, it met the new 2021 at 1.2300.

The Fed was in full swing implementing its monetary stimulus program on the eve of 2021, and the printing press was working at full capacity, filling the American market with new, unsecured dollars. There were no plans to curtail monetary stimulus and, moreover, to raise the interest rate.

Based on this and looking back at the dynamics of the dollar over the last three quarters of 2020, experts were making their forecasts for the coming months. Most of them were inclined to believe that money would actively flow to Europe in 2021, and the dollar would face a deep devaluation. True, different analysts assessed the depth of a possible fall in the USD differently.

For example, one of the largest investment banks, Goldman Sachs, predicted a drop in the weighted USD rate by only 6%, and Morgan Stanley expected the EUR/USD pair to rise to 1.2500. (By the way, the figure of 1.2500 was also sounded in many other moderate forecasts).

But there were also those who predicted a catastrophic fall in the American currency. Prominent economists, Euro Pacific Capital President Peter Schiff and former Morgan Stanley Asia head and Fed Board member Stephen Roach estimated the likelihood of a dollar collapse in 2021 at 50%. At the same time, Roach believed that the devaluation of the dollar could reach 35%. A slightly smaller but also impressive devaluation of 20% was forecast by analysts at Citigroup. That is, in their opinion, now that you are reading this review, the EUR/USD pair should have been in the 1.4000-1.4400 zone.

The pair did start to grow with the onset of 2021. But this trend lasted ... less than one week. It reached the level of 1.2350 on January 6, and this was the year's high. Everything changed starting from January 7, and the dollar began to win back losses.

The US currency moved in a sinusoidal manner until the end of May, fluctuating along with the waves of the coronavirus and statements by the Fed leaders. But the mood of the US Central Bank began to clearly change from dovish to hawkish just before the onset of summer, the country's economy was recovering, and confidence in the imminent tightening of the FRS monetary policy began to grow among investors. And this means a reduction in asset repurchases and an increase in the interest rate on federal funds in the long term. Investors began to recall the "bread" times of the summer of 2019, when the rate was equal to 2.25%, and not the current "beggarly" 0.25%.

The American currency went into steady growth (minor corrections do not count) after that, and is now completing 2021in the 1.1200-1.1300 zone. That is, it is very far from 1.2500, as had been predicted by respected experts. It's not even worth talking about 1.4000-1.4400.


What Experts Expect in the New Year

If the forecasts for the dollar for the past 2021 were more like obituaries, the prospects for the USD in the eyes of some experts look much more optimistic now. And all due to the fact that the US Federal Reserve, unlike the central banks of many other G20 countries, has actively embarked on curtailing its QE program, the US economy, including the labor market, is recovering well, GDP growth is projected at 5%, and now, according to the Federal Reserve, it is time to curb inflation. The fact that the interest rate will rise to at least 1.5% by the end of 2023 is now almost beyond doubt.

In this situation, according to experts of the Dutch banking ING Group (Internationale Nederlanden Groep), the dovish position of the Central Banks of the EU, Japan and Switzerland, more tolerant of price increases, will cause their national currencies to fall significantly behind the dollar in 2022. ING strategists believe that the EUR/USD pair will fall to the 1.1100 zone in Q2 and Q4 of next year, and it will be even lower at 1.1000 in Q4.

Analysts of one of the largest financial conglomerates in the world, HSBC (Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation) are in solidarity with ING. “Our main argument,” their forecast says, “is based on two factors supporting the dollar: 1. a slowdown in global economic growth and 2. the Federal Reserve’s gradual transition to a possible rate hike. These two forces are likely to remain decisive and should support the gradual appreciation of the dollar in 2022.” HSBC analysts also believe that the trend of the EUR/USD pair will be downward, as the ECB does not plan to raise the key rate until the end of 2022.

CIBC (Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce) specialists also side with the US dollar, marking the following route for the EUR/USD pair for the coming year: Q2 - 1.1100, Q3 - 1.1000, Q4 - 1.1000. The JP Morgan financial holding assessed the pair's prospects more modestly, pointing to the level of 1.1200. That is, in this case, we can already talk about a sideways trend.

It should be noted that not all the authorities in the financial world are betting on the strength of the dollar. Many analysts have taken the opposite position and, on the contrary, expect a weakening of the US currency “In 2022, - writes FXStreet, - the Federal Reserve System may return to dovish positions that will put pressure on the dollar.”

Barclays Bank already considers the dollar to be highly overestimated. Therefore, it is expected to depreciate moderately against the backdrop of rising risk appetites and commodity prices, caused by the recovery of the global world economy and cooling inflation. The Barclays scenario written for EUR/USD looks like this: Q1 2022 - growth to 1.1600, Q2 - 1.1800, Q3 and Q4 - movement in the 1.1900 zone.

Reuters interviewed the largest banks represented on Wall Street and published their scenarios of the dynamics of the foreign exchange market for the next 12 months. In addition to the aforementioned JP Morgan and Barclays, the respondents were banking conglomerates Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo, as well as Europe's largest asset management company Amundi.

Morgan Stanley believes that the Fed's rate hike will proceed fairly smoothly, while other central banks will move from dovish to hawkish politics. This will lead to a convergence in the actions of regulators, put pressure on the dollar and raise the EUR/USD pair to 1.1800.

Goldman Sachs strategists call the same goal of 1.1800. Although, in this case, this can be considered a success for the US currency. The fact is that an earlier forecast of this investment bank pointed to a much higher mark of 1.2500.

Amundi believes that the Fed “has little to do to surprise market expectations” and, although a moderate normalization of monetary policy “will remain generally positive for the dollar” by the end of the year, the pair will reach 1.1400.

The most unexpected forecast was given by the strategists of the Wells Fargo investment institute. They just named a wide range from 1.1000 to 1.1800. And it is quite possible that this prediction will prove to be the most correct one.

There is such a proverb, “Man believes, and Life has”. Its meaning is that human plans, even the most thoughtful ones, are imperfect and changeable. Life, however, puts everything in its place over time. So we will only be able to understand at the end of next year who of the influencers was right. In the meantime, on the eve of the new year, we wish you success in your work, financial well-being, good health and excellent mood. Happy New Year!

***

In the next review, in a week, we will tell you what experts think about the future of the Japanese yen (USD/JPY), the British pound (GBP/USD), the Canadian (USD/CAD) and the Australian (AUD/ USD) dollars, Swedish kronor (USD/SEK), Swiss franc (USD/CHF) and Chinese yuan (USD/CNH).


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

https://nordfx.com/

Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX

CryptoNews of the Week



- Elon Musk is Satoshi Nakamoto. Such a sensational statement was made by a SpaceX and Tesla ex-software developper Sahil Gupta. He revealed details that, in his opinion, prove that Musk is the creator of bitcoin, since he had the necessary resources, knowledge and motivation to do so.
In addition, Sahil Gupta claims that he had once directly asked the billionaire representative Sam Teller if Musk was the creator of bitcoin, he was silent for about 15 seconds, and then said: "Well, what can I say...".

- Philip Hammond, former British Chancellor of the Exchequer, who also served as Foreign Secretary, Secretary of Defense and Minister of Transport, called on retail investors to be “extremely cautious” when investing in cryptocurrencies.
“If a member of my family asked me [whether to invest in cryptocurrency], I would draw their attention to the fact that large and reputable asset managers are now more likely to test the waters [...] It is almost certainly not suitable for retail investors as the main investment grade ", - said Baron Hammond. In his opinion, buying a cryptocurrency is more of a gamble than a serious investment.

- Unlike Baron Hammond, Ricardo Salinas Pliego, one of the richest people in Mexico and founder of the Grupo Salinas group of companies, called on subscribers to actively buy the first cryptocurrency in his New Year's address.
“Stay away from fiat money. The dollar, the euro, the yen, the peso are all the same. It is fake money made of paper and lies. Central banks print more money than ever. Invest in bitcoin,” he said. The billionaire reported that he invested 10% of his liquid portfolio in bitcoin back in November 2020.

“The cryptocurrency market will grow to tens of trillions of dollars,” said Jihan Wu, co-founder of Bitmain and head of Matrixport and Bitdeer, in an interview with Forbes. In his opinion, "even if 95% of existing coins are depreciated or disappear, the growth rate of the remaining 5% will be enormous."
“Innovations like DeFi are breathtaking. Cryptocurrencies and blockchain have created a new world, enabling fintech entrepreneurs to achieve great success. Traditional financial institutions and regulators will also adopt blockchain technology over time,” the billionaire believes.

- The frequency of mentions of bitcoin on Twitter increased by 350% in 2021 compared to 2020. 101 million tweets with the word “bitcoin” were published in just 12 months, according to data from the analytical company Visibrain.
The number of mentions of bitcoin on Twitter jumped sharply against the backdrop of various events. So, there was a surge in the popularity of the asset in February against the background of the flash mob "laser eyes", the participants of which put photos with laser eyes on their Twitter avatars and promised not to change them until bitcoin rose in price to $100,000. An increase in mentions also occurred when Tesla suspended the sale of its cars for bitcoins, and El Salvador recognized the cryptocurrency as an official means of payment.

- Joseph Tsai, Vice Chairman of the Chinese Internet Company Alibaba, announced his commitment to cryptocurrencies. He tweeted a simple and short phrase, "I like cryptocurrencies," to which a lot of users responded. Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao did not ignore Tsai's tweet either and replied, "I like Joe."
Recall that the Chinese authorities are taking serious measures against the cryptocurrency industry. And this was the reason that, despite the loyalty of its vice president, the e-commerce giant has already begun to implement an anti-cryptocurrency policy. Alibaba announced last autumn that it will be forbidden to sell mining equipment on the platform. The company has also pledged to stop selling books and tutorials related to the digital asset industry.

- A well-known trader and analyst Tone Weiss predicts a powerful surge of bitcoin. He believes that the current market situation does not reflect the potential of the first cryptocurrency, and the current situation is just a “speed bump in the bull market”. The specialist recalled that similar phenomena have already happened in the past, and each time bitcoin, having overcome the section that slowed it down, picked up speed again. At the same time, Weiss noted that he does not know exactly to what minimum BTC may fall before its value begins to increase.
The trader also noted that bitcoin is currently trading within a large ascending triangle on the monthly chart. This is a bullish pattern suggesting a continuation of the uptrend. The analyst believes that the asset's overcoming the $60,000 level will open the way for a large-scale rally to $100,000 and above.

- Analyst PlanB also believes that the digital asset is bound to grow. This is indicated by the signals of his S2F forecasting model. PlanB has previously claimed that the main cryptocurrency will be able to break through the $100,000 level before the end of this year. Despite the fact that his forecast did not come true, the analyst continues to believe the S2F signals.

- Lukas Lagoudis, CEO of ARK36 cryptocurrency hedge fund, believes in maintaining the upward trend in the crypto market next year. According to him, the value of coins will increase due to the inflow of capital from institutional investors and the integration of digital assets into traditional financial systems. Lagoudis suggests that the popularity of virtual currencies should increase due to rising inflation and declining bond yields.

- Documentaries that talk about bitcoin and the cryptocurrency industry appear on the film market from time to time. Some of them have earned rave reviews from critics and users interested in the industry.
The first place in the TOP-3 is taken by the documentary "This Machine Greens", which tells about the mining process. "Man B" is in the second place, in which the authors examine the attitude of the citizens of Germany and Austria towards bitcoin. The third line is taken by the documentary film "Hard Money". This short film explains why bitcoin is so important for the entire planet. It can also be used to find out why gold was chosen as the main asset for civilization at one time, and what its drawbacks are.

- The US Congress approved an increase in the national debt limit by another $2.5 trillion. According to experts, this decision will once again postpone the threat of federal default until at least the beginning of 2023, accelerate inflation in the United States and lead to an increase in investment in gold and bitcoin.
Max Keiser, a well-known crypto investor and founder of Heisenberg Capital, said the bill created “ideal conditions for bitcoin to grow as the US government capitulated to hyperinflation”. “I don’t want to see America collapse, but I don’t have that many dollars, so I don’t care,” Kaiser announced.
Gemini co-founder Tyler Winklevoss (Tyler Winklevoss) wrote on Twitter that the approval by the US Senate of the debt ceiling “will actually work as advertising for bitcoin at $2.5 trillion.” Michael Saylor, CEO of MicroStrategy, shares a similar view. “It looks like bitcoin is enjoying government support,” he writes.


#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

https://nordfx.com/

Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX

Leading Banks Forecast for 2022: JPY, GBP, CAD, AUD, CHF, SEK, CNH

We talked a week ago about what experts from the world's leading banks and agencies think about the behavior of the EUR/USD pair in the coming 2022. And the fact that we paid attention to it in the first place is quite logical: after all, this pair is the most traded on the Forex market, and the European currency itself leads by a huge margin in the formation of the US Dollar Index DXY, with 57.6%.

Recall that DXY was developed by the US Federal Reserve in 1973 and shows the ratio of the US dollar to a basket of 6 major world currencies. This basket includes euro (57.6%), Japanese yen (13.6%), British pound (11.9%), Canadian dollar (9.1%), Swedish krona (4.2%) and Swiss franc (3.6%).

In our opinion, the economic situation in the world has changed quite a lot over the past almost half a century since the inception of DXY. And at least the Chinese yuan should have appeared in the basket. Therefore, below we will look at the prospects for both the currency pairs that form the dollar index: USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CAD, USD/SEK, USD/CHF, and some other, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, EUR/GBP and USD/CNH.


USD/JPY: Japan Needs a Weak Yen

It is known that inflation, along with the recovery of the labor market, is one of the two main factors that central banks focus on in their monetary policy.

The positive GDP gap is also called the inflation gap, because it indicates that the growth of aggregate demand outstrips the growth of aggregate supply and accelerates inflation. This, according to the IMF, will be observed in the United States (+ 3.3%) and Canada (+ 0.8%) in 2022. And regulators will have to take active steps to tighten their monetary policy in order to contain inflation. And this, according to experts from the Dutch banking ING Group (Internationale Nederlanden Groep), will give the currencies of these countries, primarily the USD, an advantage over the currencies of those countries where GDP has negative gap. It is also called recessionary, since the excess of supply over demand is the path to deflation.

The recession gap has been observed since 2008 in Japan and is likely to repeat in 2022. That is why the policy of the Bank of Japan is one of the most dovish among the central banks of other countries, and the interest rate on the yen has been held at a negative level for a long time, minus 0.1%.

The head of the Bank of Japan, Haruhiko Kuroda, has recently said that a weak yen would rather help the country's economy than harm it. According to the senior official, if the yen falls, it will support exports and corporate profits.

ING Group believes that such a differentiation between the approaches of the US Federal Reserve and the Japanese regulator will strengthen the dollar's position against the yen. Their quarterly forecast for USD/JPY for this year is as follows: Q1 - 114.00, Q2 - 115.00, Q3 - 118.00 and Q4 - 120.00.

The French financial conglomerate Societe Generale estimates the probability that the pair will rise to 116.00 in the Q2 at 50%, and up to 118.00 - 25%. Experts bet the remaining 25% on a bearish scenario and the fall of the pair to 110.00.

Analysts from other leading global banks also prefer the dollar. However, unlike their colleagues from ING, a number of forecasts has the peak not at the end, but in the middle of the year. Barclays Bank's forecast looks like this: Q1 - 115.00, Q2 - 116.00, Q3 - 116.00 and Q4 - 115.00. The CIBC (Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce) forecast paints a similar picture: Q1 - 115.00, Q2 - 116.00, Q3 - 115.00, Q4 - 114.00.

Reuters interviewed the largest banks represented on Wall Street and published the opinion of their experts regarding the values of the USD/JPY pair in the second half - late 2022. For the most part, forecasts point to a strengthening dollar: JP Morgan Q3 - 114.00, Amundi Q4 - 116.00, Morgan Stanley Q4 - 118.00. On the contrary, Goldman Sachs believes that the pair will fall to 111.00 in 2023.


GBP/USD: At the Crossroads of Three Roads

Regarding the future of the British currency, British investment Barclays Bank has taken a very patriotic stance. His strategists consider the pound to be highly undervalued and predict that the GBP/USD pair will return to the 2021 highs and rise to 1.4200 by the end of the year.

Unlike most investment banks, Barclays believes that the policy of the US Federal Reserve does not provide strong support for the US currency at all, and this will lead to its moderate depreciation. The Bank expects other central banks to take a more aggressive stance than the Fed, with higher interest rates, thereby limiting the attractiveness of the dollar. First of all, of course, we are talking here about the Bank of England.

As for the short-term outlook for the pound, Barclays’ analysts are more cautious here, as the impact of high inflation will neutralize the potential support from a slight increase in interest rates. In addition, concerns about the new wave of COVID-19 and the difficulties with the EU due to Brexit need to be considered. As a result, Barclays' quarterly forecast is as follows: Q1 - 1.3300, Q2 - 1.3700, Q3 - 1.4000 and Q4 - 1.4200.

Capital Economics, one of the leading independent research centers in the UK, took the opposite position. Its specialists, on the contrary, expect the pound to weaken, and refer to a combination of 1) weak economic growth, 2) slowdown in inflation and 3) slowness of the Bank of England. These three factors may lead to the fact that the regulator of the United Kingdom may raise the rate to only 0.5% in the coming months instead of 1.0%, and thus disappoint the markets.

But, in addition to the growth and fall of the British currency, there is a third scenario. ING Group analysts predict that the pound will be somewhere in the middle of a triangle of a stronger US dollar, stable commodity currencies and weaker low-yielding currencies. Therefore, according to their scenario, the GBP/USD pair will move in a sideways trend: Q1-1.3300, Q2-1.3400, Q3-1.3400 and Q4-1.3400.


Other Currency Pairs

- If Barclays Bank believes in its national currency, CIBC (Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce) specialists are quite pessimistic about the future. In their opinion, the Canadian dollar may become weaker this year. “Markets overestimated the possible actions of the Bank of Canada in 2022,” says CIBC, “and underestimated the Fed in 2022. Recalibration will leave CAD out of favor with investors.” The bank's forecast for the USD/CAD pair is as follows: Q1-1.2800, Q2-1.2900, Q3-1.3000 and Q4-1.3000.

- Experts at HSBC (Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation) believe that some currencies will still be able to hold their ground against the stronger US dollar, including the Australian dollar. HSBC believes that the Reserve Bank of Australia may take a more hawkish position, given the rather strong macroeconomic data.

- ING strategists do not exclude that the Australian dollar may benefit from undervaluation and being oversold either. However, taking long positions on the AUD/USD pair, in their opinion, still carries a high risk.

-In addition, according to ING experts, together with the euro (EUR/USD) and the Japanese yen (USD/JPY), the Swiss franc will also lag significantly behind the dollar (USD/CHF) in 2022 as well as Swedish Krona (USD/SEK).

- Barclays Bank's forecast for other currency pairs included in the palette of trading instruments of the brokerage company NordFX is as follows: EUR/GBP : Q1 - 0.87, Q2 - 0.86, Q3 - 0.85, Q4 - 0.84 | USD/CHF : Q1 - 0.91, Q2 - 0.90, Q3 - 0.90, Q4 - 0.90 | AUD/USD : Q1 - 0.75, Q2 - 0.76, Q3 - 0.77, Q4 - 0.78 | NZD/USD : Q1 - 0.73, Q2 - 0.73, Q3 - 0.73, Q4 - 0.73 | USD/CAD : Q1 - 1.23, Q2 - 1.22, Q3 - 1.21, Q4 - 1.21 | USD/CNH : Q1 - 6.35, Q2 - 6.30, Q3 - 6.40, Q4 - 6.50.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

https://nordfx.com/

Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX

December 2021: XAU/USD, GBP/USD and BTC/USD Are Among the Favorites

NordFX brokerage company has summed up the performance of its clients' trade transactions in the last month of 2021. The services of social trading, PAMM and CopyTrading, as well as the profit received by the company's IB-partners have also been assessed.

Among traders, the best result of the month was shown by the holder of account No. 1045XXX from China, whose profit amounted to 33,105 USD and was received due to bitcoin transactions (BTC/USD). It is worth noting that the flagship cryptocurrency either fell or was in a flat for most of December, so it seems that it took a lot of effort to get such a significant profit.

The second place in the top three most productive NordFX clients belongs to a trader from India (account No. 1583XXX), who earned 25,413 USD on gold transactions (XAU/USD) and British Pound (GBP/USD).

And finally, the third step of the podium is taken by another representative of China (account No. 1549XXX) with a profit of 22,256 USD, who traded the major forex pair, EUR/USD.

The NordFX passive investment services:

- while analyzing the CopyTrading showcase during 2021, we paid maximum attention to long-lived signals. And now we have decided to change “traditions” and pay attention to “startups”. These signals have appeared quite recently, which is why they can be classified as risky. However, the current profit/drawdown ratio makes them quite interesting: if not for short-term investments, then at least for careful monitoring. Since there are many such signals, we will form not TOP-3, but TOP-5 of them.

AURISTELA - the signal has existed since October 25, 2021. It brought a profit of 93.23% during these 65 days (in December - 39.53%) with a maximum drawdown of just over 35%. Almost all (99%) transactions have been made with gold (XAU/USD).

The next signal is called Hada. It started on November 20, 2021, a little more than a month ago. The total yield for this period was 27.74%, for December it was 14.72%, the drawdown was only 4.39%, the traded pairs were USD/JPY, XAU/USD, GBP/USD, EUR/USD.

Number 3 on the list is the Darto Capital signal, it is only 10 days old, while the capital gain due to transactions on the GBP/USD, EUR/USD, BTC/USD, XAU/USD pairs amounted to 32.79% with a drawdown of 4.80%.

And the TOP-5 startups are closed by two signals, which, judging by the life expectancy, set of tools and volume of transactions, belong to the same author. These signals are Sriniwas (lifetime 45 days, profitability during this time 23.22%, for December - 14.38%, drawdown 8.38%) and Rekha Dubey (lifetime - the same 45 days, profitability during this time 30.05%, for December - 21.16% , drawdown 8.80%). The traded pairs are XAU/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, EUR/USD, BTC/USD, US500. Gold is the leader in both cases (more than 70% of the total trading volume), which is not uncommon. But the transactions with the stock index Standard & Poor's 500 (US500) can be seen as exotic. However, this tool took a little more than 4% in the basket of this trader.

- As for the PAMM service, we have repeatedly noted the manager under the nickname KennyFXPRO. This manager increased their capital by 65% on their KennyFXPRO-The Multi 3000 EA account in 11 months, with a fairly moderate drawdown - less than 16%. The arsenal of their trading instruments is quite diverse and includes such not very popular pairs as, for example, NZD/CAD, AUD/CAD and AUD/NZD.

The account TranquilityFX - The Genesis v3 also attracts attention among the PAMM accounts. It has existed for 272 days and has brought a profit of 45% with a drawdown of 16% during this time. The set of traded currency pairs on this account is similar to that of KennyFXPRO-The Multi 3000 EA, which suggests that the same trader is managing both accounts.

NKFX - Ninja 136 is very similar to the two previous accounts as well. Its lifespan is 172 days, the gain is 34%, the maximum drawdown is about 15%.

Among the IB partners, NordFX TOP-3 is as follows:

- the largest commission, 5,236 USD, was credited in December to a partner from Vietnam, account No.1371ХXХ;
- the next is a partner from China, account No. 1336xxx, who received 4,578 USD for the month;
- and, finally, a partner from India, account No.11570ХХХ, who received 2,904 USD as a reward, closes the top three.


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

https://nordfx.com/

Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX

NordFX Super Lottery 2021 Final Draw: Another $60,000 Drawn

The third and final draw of the Super Lottery by the brokerage company NordFX took place on January 3. The lottery was launched nine months ago, in April 2021, and anyone could participate in it, it was enough to fulfill just a few simple conditions.

Interim draws were held every three months. Like the final one, they were held online, and all interested persons could follow them on the Internet. The videos of all the draws runs are available now on the company's official YouTube channel.

The final draw took place immediately after the New Year holidays, on January 03, 2022. And it drew a substantial amount of $60,000 divided by 30 prizes of $500, 10 of $1,000, 6 of $2,500 and 1 super prize of $20,000.

The winners are the holders of the following lottery tickets:



According to the rules, the prize funds can be used by the lottery winner in trading or withdrawn from the account at any time by any of the available methods and without any restrictions.

Summing up the results of our super lottery, we would like to wish all its participants and all NordFX clients a Happy New Year. May luck always be with you in 2022. We wish happiness, health and prosperity to you and your loved ones!


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

https://nordfx.com/

Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX

CryptoNews of the Week



- It was 13 years ago, on January 3, 2009, that a person or a group of people known as Satoshi Nakamoto launched the main bitcoin network, mining a genesis block with 50 BTC. Its hash contains the title of the article "Chancellor on Brink of Second Bailout for Banks" by the British edition of The Times. The launch of the network was preceded by the publication of the bitcoin white paper on October 31, 2008. The first bitcoin transaction took place on January 12, 2009: Satoshi Nakamoto sent 10 BTC to Hal Finney.
It is possible that one of the incentives for the bitcoin creation was the global financial crisis that broke out in 2007-2008, accompanied by the collapse of the largest investment banks, a widespread decline in production, falling demand and prices for raw materials, rising unemployment and active government intervention in the economy.

- According to the CoinatMrRadar analytical service, against the backdrop of growing demand for cryptocurrencies, about 20,000 new bitcoin ATMs appeared in the world in 2021. Their number has grown by about 2.4 times over the year and is very close to 34,000. The vast majority of these are still in the United States. Genesis Coin is the leader among ATM manufacturers, having installed 13,996 ATMs. It is followed by General Bytes with 7,514. The top three is closed by BitAccess with 4,875 ATMs.

- MicroStrategy increased investments in bitcoin by $94 million. The company's CEO Michael Saylor announced the purchase of 1.9 thousand BTC at an average price of $49,200 per coin. The software developer currently owns 124,391 BTC, which is valued at $6.1 billion. In total, the company spent about $3.7 billion on the purchase of cryptocurrency, so the average price of 1 BTC in its ownership is $30,100.
The head of MicroStrategy is a strong proponent of digital assets and believes bitcoin will become the 21st century's premier store of value. As for China's anti-cryptocurrency measures, Michael Saylor called them a “trillion-dollar mistake”.

- The head of the investment company Ava Labs, John Wu, expressed the opinion in an interview with CNBC that the capitalization of the crypto market will exceed $5 trillion in 2022. According to Wu's forecast, digital assets have the potential to double their market value in the coming year. (The capitalization is $2.25 trillion at the time of writing this review).
According to the head of Ava Labs, cryptocurrencies will be the only asset class that can withstand both the actions of the Fed and the record increase in inflation, which reached its maximum values in the US in almost 40 years in early December 2021. Wu also claims that the share of bitcoin will fall below 30% with the growth of the crypto market, although the price may exceed $75,000 per coin.

- According to cryptocurrency analyst Benjamin Cowen, bitcoin has already bottomed out, although many traders believe the bearish trend will continue. According to Cowen, it can be more revealing sometimes to value bitcoin not in the BTC/USD pair, but in comparison with other assets. As an example, the expert suggests looking at BTC paired with the S&P500 index. Bitcoin has already reached critical support here, Cowen believes. “If you look at bitcoin in the mirror of the stock market, it is testing levels that were tested back in September.”
However, the analyst does not rule out that the main cryptocurrency may return to the level of $40,000 or $42,000. “Anything is possible in the case of investment,” he writes. “All models can be wrong, although some can be useful.”

- Another fraudulent account of Vitalik Buterin has been found on Instagram. According to users, the owner of this account is “pulling followers into classic cryptocurrency fraud schemes.” He encourages subscribers to send him direct messages which contain passphrases for crypto wallets, or persuades them to send him cryptocurrency, promising to return three times as much.
It turns out that the real Vitalik Buterin does not have an official Instagram account, which is what the scammer decided to take advantage of, gaining 643,000 subscribers. The fake account was registered in Israel more than two years ago. However, it is not the only one. If you search Instagram for the name of the Ethereum creator, you will see more than a dozen accounts, many of which are called “Vitalik Biterin_official”.

- Notorious entrepreneur, co-founder of Block.One, former actor and former US presidential candidate Brock Pierce is confident that bitcoin can reach $200,000 this year. Governments are printing excessive amounts of money, thereby fueling inflation, and this will be the main reason for BTC to take off. “I wouldn't be surprised if bitcoin trades for $100,000. It is quite possible that it can jump over $200,000 for a moment,” Pierce said optimistically.

- Anthony Trenchev, co-founder and managing partner of Nexo, a major cryptocurrency lender (over $ 6 billion), exudes optimism like Brock Pierce. “I think bitcoin will reach $100,000 this year, perhaps by the middle of this year,” Trenchev said.

- Economist Alex Kruger expects the main cryptocurrency to grow in early January, but then bears may enter the scene and the reason for this is the next meeting of the US Federal Reserve. “If the report on inflation on January 12 shows an excess of its level,” the specialist explains, “then investors should expect an exit from risky assets on the eve of the FRS meeting on January 26.”

- American billionaire and founder of Bridgewater Associates Ray Dalio said he is impressed by the fact that bitcoin has managed to stand the test of time and agreed with his fellow billionaire Bill Miller is that one should allocate 1-2% of one's net profit for this cryptocurrency. He talks about this in his new book, which is a macroeconomic explanation of why bitcoin will become a $10 trillion asset.
Many members of the crypto community have perceived this billionaire's work as a 550-page advertisement for bitcoin. However, Dalio also warns about the risks for this cryptocurrency in this book. The financier believes that a new alternative may appear in the market due to the nature of the evolutionary process. The billionaire predicts that capital will flow into non-fungible tokens and other coins in the future, for diversification purposes. At the same time, he did not purchase NFTs himself, but the mania accompanying this innovation causes him some interest.
The head of the world's largest hedge fund still does not rule out that governments can outlaw bitcoin, as they once outlawed gold and silver. “Alternative currency is a threat to any government. Each of them wants a monopoly on their currency," Dalio writes.

- Kevin O'Leary, an American entrepreneur and star of the popular business and finance show Shark Tank, said that he is ready to increase the share of cryptocurrencies in his investment portfolio to 20%. However, he is waiting for clearer regulation of the industry to do this.
O'Leary had previously been a crypto sceptic, but these assets already occupy about 10% of his portfolio now, a significant part of them are stablecoins pegged to the US dollar. This is how he is trying to protect himself from inflation of the world reserve currency. According to the entrepreneur, his optimism towards stablecoins is shared by many institutional investors. At the same time, O'Leary has a different attitude to bitcoin due to its significant volatility: “You will not invest 20% or 30% of your portfolio in bitcoin if you are an institutional investor, you simply will not. And stablecoins may well get such an allocation,” he said.

- Bitcoin markets have been consolidating since the start of the year, but chain metrics paint a more positive picture as more and more assets become illiquid. Glassnode examined the supply performance of bitcoin in its report dated January 03, 2022. The results showed that while the asset has been trading sideways so far this year, the illiquid supply has accelerated and now accounts for 76% of the total.
Glassnode defines illiquidity as moving BTC to a wallet with no history of spending. The liquid stock of BTC, which is 24%, is in wallets that regularly spend or trade coins.
The figures indicate that more and more bitcoin is being transferred to storage, which indicates an increase in accumulation. The reduction in highly liquid supply also hints that there is no need to expect a major sell-off or surrender to the bears in the near future.


#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

https://nordfx.com/

Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX

CryptoNews of the Week



- China's Supreme Economic Planning Authority has officially declared crypto mining "obsolete", backing up the government's efforts to eradicate the industry entirely. The National Development and Reform Commission made the announcement on Monday, January 10, explaining along the way that the country's economy is moving towards a model that favors cleaner, less resource-intensive industries. According to business consultancy Dezan Shira & Associate, the “obsolete” label refers not only to mining, but also to other technologies that will be banned from investment and should be phased out.
As a reminder, China had been the world leader in this industry until last year, when government bans drove most of the crypto miners out of the country,

- The global adoption of cryptocurrencies will jump from the current 5% to 20% in 2022. This forecast was given by the CEO of Binance crypto exchange Changpeng Zhao in an article for the Indian version of Fortune. The main drivers, in his opinion, will be the SocialFi, GameFi and NFT sectors.
Regarding India, Zhao noted the importance of government support for blockchain and cryptocurrency innovation, regardless of asset classification. According to the NASSCOM report, it is expected that the crypto market in the country will reach $241 million by 2030 and potentially create 877 thousand jobs. The organization also predicts an increase in the inflow of funds from retail investors in digital assets to $15.6 billion from $6.6 billion currently.
The head of Binance stressed that India is poised to “become a leader in blockchain and cryptocurrencies.” “In addition to banking and financial services, DLT technology can improve the efficiency of land transactions, supply chains, agriculture and corporate sustainability,” Zhao added.

- According to Bloomberg, only 5% of customers surveyed by JPMorgan believe that the bitcoin price will reach $100,000 by the end of 2022. More than 40% believe that it will only return to the $60,000 level. “I'm not surprised by the bearish sentiment on bitcoin. Our futures-based indicator looks oversold", said the bank's strategist Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou. According to him, the fair value of the cryptocurrency ranges from $35,000 to $73,000.

- Jack Dorsey's Block (formerly Square) payment company has opened a recruitment process to develop a next-generation bitcoin miner and a hardware wallet “for the next 100 million bitcoin users.” This is stated in the corresponding section on the company's website. “Our goal is to expand economic opportunities, starting with providing easy-to-use and reliable self-service to a global audience,” the announcement says.

- Bitcoin continues to fall in price after it reached an all-time high of $69,000 last November. Galaxy Digital founder Mike Novogratz called this a healthy pullback in a recent interview with CNBC. He believes that the main cryptocurrency will find support around $38,000-40,000, after which it will return to growth, thanks to purchases by institutional investors.
Nigel Green, CEO of the consulting company deVere Group, has also stated that this is the best time in the current cycle to buy bitcoin.

- However, some experts consider such sentiments to be too optimistic. Thus, the ENCRY Foundation predicts that bitcoin may return to growth only after its price drops to $28,000-30,000. “The flows of liquidity to the markets will decrease in the second half of 2022, after the completion of the asset repurchase program in the United States. Then bitcoin may fall to $30,000,” the company's specialists believe.
The current levels cannot yet be described as a market bottom. This is indicated by another expert, Viktor Pershikov, a leading analyst at 8848 Invest. According to him, conditions that have not yet been observed must be fulfilled for the formation of the bottom. This is a long flat (at least two months in the current circumstances) with the accumulation of long positions and an increase in open interest, a decrease in BTC sales by market participants as well as clarification of the speed and degree of tightening of monetary policy by world central banks.
“The current state of the crypto market is characterized by emotional selling to a large extent, including at a loss, which is typical for situations when retail participants are shaken out of the market. The current decline does not pose a threat for large BTC holders and is a normal market correction before further growth," Pershikov says. In his opinion, bitcoin will spend most of the year in the price range of $30,000-70,000.

- Bitcoin is classified as a risky asset, and it moves mainly in the same direction as technology stocks. Sometimes the correlation of BTC with such assets weakens, but the overall dependence remains high.
Analysts associate the January fall in cryptocurrency with the retreat of stock indices, which is taking place against the background of the US Federal Reserve's readiness to raise the discount rate this quarter. Correlation between bitcoin and the S&P 500 has increased to its highest level since July 2020, according to Kaiko platform. A similar situation is observed between BTC and the Nasdaq index.

- Up to 50% of all transactions in one form or another will be made through Ethereum in 10-20 years. This was stated by Joey Krug, co-director of investments at Pantera Capital in an interview with Bloomberg.
The top manager is convinced that the second largest cryptocurrency by capitalization will play an important role in global finance, and that the explosive growth of Ethereum killers will not be able to undermine its dominance. “There are many compromises in other blockchains, while Ethereum is in the best position in terms of decentralization, which is extremely important,” explained the Pantera Capital Co-Chief Investment Officer.

- Cryptocurrency analyst Justin Bennett said what, in his opinion, awaits Ethereum against the backdrop of a downtrend in the entire market. “One needs to be careful as long as ETH is below $4,000. If ETH returns to this area in the coming weeks and months and can gain a foothold there, then we can talk about the continuation of the strong bullish trend observed in 2021. ”Bennett himself does not mind replenishing his leading altcoin stocks at around $3,000.
The analyst also looks at ETH against BTC and believes that the ETH/BTC pair could start a long-term rally to 0.18 BTC ($7.388) for 1 Ethereum, but this would require holding the 0.075 BTC ($3.077) level as support.

- A resident of San Francisco (USA) Siraj Raval uses his 2018 Tesla Model 3 to mine Ethereum. To do this, he launched the corresponding free software on the Apple Mac mini M1, connecting it to the car's center console. Five graphics cards are powered by the Tesla battery.
According to Raval, he was mining for about 20 hours a day on the Tesla battery and was earning from $400 to $800 per month throughout 2021, which made such mining profitable even during the bear market. (The monthly cost of recharging the car was only $30 to $60, despite the fact that he was driving it as well.)
However, another miner who used Tesla, Thomas Somers, doubted that much profit. “The best estimate I would give for a GPU hashrate in Model 3 would be around 7-10 MH/s. Currently, this will generate revenue of about $13 at a rate of 10 MH/s without taking into account any costs,“ Somers said.


#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

https://nordfx.com/

Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX

Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for January 17 - 21, 2022

EUR/USD: Rumors That Drive the Markets



The weather on the market is quite often determined by rumors which have very little to do with reality. Or nothing at all. But those who spread them can earn good money by speculating on them. Something similar seems to have happened last week.

Recall that the EUR/USD pair has been in a sideways trend since November, fluctuating in the range of 1.1220-1.1385. And most analysts voted for the continuation of such a movement a week ago, with a predominance of bearish sentiment. The US Fed's hawkish intentions to end the emergency stimulus program, raise interest rates, and start normalizing the balance sheet were an argument in favor of the dollar's strength.

Note that neither the head of the Fed, Jerome Powell, nor other officials of the American central bank have ever said or even hinted that the rate could be raised four times during 2022. It is unclear where this figure came from, but rumors about such an opportunity began to be actively exaggerated and, as a result, many investors believed in it.

Speaking in the US Congress on Tuesday, January 11, Jerome Powell just repeated what he had already voiced earlier. He said once again that the Fed is going to raise the refinancing rate at least twice this year in order to combat a record inflation in forty years, and that if necessary, it can be raised three times. That is, nothing new was actually said. But the market was waiting for the number "four” and was disappointed because it did not sound.

As a result, the DXY dollar index went into a deep peak, closing below the 50-day moving average, and the EUR/USD pair, instead of moving south, went north.

Thanks to US inflation data, the euro further strengthened its position the next day, on Wednesday, January 12, and the pair EUR/USD, having broken through the border of the medium-term sideways channel, went further up. The breakdown of resistance in the 1.1385 zone served as a trigger for a correction after the strengthening of the dollar that began in May 2021 and the subsequent month-and-a-half sideways trend. The weekly high was reached on the morning of Friday, January 14 at the height of 1.1482.

US retail sales and consumer confidence data released at the end of the week were much worse than previous figures, confirming the negative impact of the Omicron coronavirus strain on the US economy. It is not yet possible to predict exactly how much they will affect the next steps of the Fed. But, judging by the reaction of the market, investors decided that such statistics would push the regulator to take more decisive action. As a result, the EUR/USD pair finished at 1.1415.

Of course, the dollar may retreat a little more in the short term. However, the difference between the hawkish policy of the Fed and the dovish policy of the ECB should still support the USD. Moreover, the head of the Fed once again stressed in recent comments that the fight against inflation is a top priority for the US regulator, and expressed confidence that the US economy will cope with the rate increase.

Also, according to a number of experts, the increase in rates may occur more often than once a quarter, as was the case in the previous cycle of monetary tightening. However, this is just an opinion so far that can give rise to another wave of rumors and expectations. Investors expect to find out what will happen in reality following the results of the January FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting of the US Federal Reserve on January 26-27.

At the time of writing, 75% of D1 oscillators are green and 25% are giving signals EUR/USD is overbought. Trend indicators have 65% green and 35% red. Among the experts, the majority (75%) does not exclude the growth of the pair in the coming week. However, the weather vane of opinions turns 180 degrees in the forecast for February, and here it is already 75% of analysts who are in favor of the dollar strengthening. Resistances are located at the levels of 1.1450, 1.1480, 1.1525, 1.1570 and 1.1615. Support levels and zones are 1.1385-1.1400, 1.1300, 1.1275, 1.1220. This is followed by the November 24 low of last year at 1.1185 and the 1.1075-1.1100 zone.

As for the economic calendar for the coming week, we can note the release of data on the consumer market of the Eurozone on Monday January 17 and Thursday January 20. The ECB's statement on monetary policy and the issue of statistics on the US labor market are also expected on Thursday. The head of the ECB, Christine Lagarde, is to speak on Friday, January 21.

GBP/USD: Bank of England vs Fed: a Game to Stay Ahead

Naturally, in addition to the meetings of the FRS and the ECB, the meeting of the Bank of England will also take place in January. It should be borne in mind that, unlike its peers, this regulator started attacking rising prices back in December, and this made a strong impression on the market. After inflation in the UK rose to 5.1%, reaching a 10-year peak, the Central bank of the kingdom raised the rate from 0.1% to 0.25% for the first time in three years. The decision was made despite the worsening epidemiological situation due to a new coronavirus strain. And here the opinion of the head of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, coincided with that of Jerome Powell: for both, the No. 1 task was to reduce price pressure on the economy and society. But the position of the former looks more hawkish, although the rate increase by 15 basis points is not significant. But the first step has been taken, and the market expects a second rate hike in February.

Such expectations continue to support the British currency, thanks to which the GBP/USD pair was able to update the high of the last eleven weeks, reaching the height of 1.3748. However, it failed to break above the 200-day SMA, and the last chord of the five-day week, after the strengthening of the dollar in the second half of Friday, January 14, sounded at 1.3678.

According to 60% of analysts, the GBP/USD pair may make another attempt to rise above the 1.3800 horizon in the coming days. This scenario is supported by 90% of trend indicators on D1 and 80% of oscillators. The remaining 20% signal that the pair is overbought. However, as in the case of EUR/USD, the scales tilt in favor of the bears, when moving from a weekly to a monthly forecast, and here it is already 55% that are waiting for the pair to move down.

Supports are located at 1.3659, 1.3600, 1.3525, 1.3480, 1.3430, 1.3375, the next strong support is 100 points lower. The resistance levels are 1.3700, 1.3750, 1.3835 and 1.3900.

Important macro data from the UK will suffice next week. There will be data on unemployment and the average wages in the country on Tuesday, January 18. Then, the consumer price index will be known the next day. In addition, the Governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, will speak on Wednesday, January 19, and retail sales for December 2021 will be published on Friday, January 19. This is an important indicator of consumer spending, which also correlates with consumer confidence and is considered as an indicator of the UK economy development pace. According to forecasts, it is expected to fall from 1.4% to minus 0.6%.

USD/JPY: The Yen Strength Is the Weak Dollar

USD/JPY dropped from 116.35 high (high since January 2017) to 113.47 last week on the back of Jerome Powell's speech and lower US Treasury yields. However, the ultra-dove position of the Japanese regulator is unlikely to further strengthen the yen. The dollar seems to be gaining strength again, and the pair went up again at the end of the weekly session, rising to the level of 114.18.

With USD/JPY moving south for the last week and a half, most of the indicators on D1 turned red. Among the oscillators, these are 80% of them, 10% give signals of the pair being oversold, and 10% have already changed their color to green. Among trend indicators, 60% recommend selling, 40% recommend buying. Among experts, 50% vote for the growth of the pair, 40% for its fall, and 10% have taken a neutral position.

Support levels are 113.50, 113.20, 112.55 and 112.70. The nearest resistance zone is 114.40-114.65, then there are levels 115.00, 115.45, 116.00 and 116.35.

The decision of the Bank of Japan on the key interest rate will be announced on Tuesday, January 18. And it will highly likely remain at the same negative level as before, minus 0.1%. As we wrote earlier, according to this regulator, the country does not need a strong currency, and a weak yen is more likely to help the country's economy, as it supports exports and corporate profits.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: And Here Too, Thank You Jerome Powell

Satoshi Nakamoto launched the bitcoin mainnet by mining the genesis block with 50 BTC in January 2009. Only some 13 years have passed since then, and The National Development and Reform Commission of China declares crypto mining “obsolete” in January 2022. It follows from the official statement of this top economic planning body that preference will now be given to cleaner and less resource-intensive industries, and mining is on the list of "obsolete" technologies that will be banned from investment and must be eliminated.

William Shakespeare was right; nothing lasts forever under the moon. And after digital currencies were declared “persona non grata” in China, the center of influence on the crypto market shifted completely to the United States. Another proof of this was last week, when a few words from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell were enough to stop the fall of bitcoin and turn the trend of the crypto market upwards.

Speaking at the US Senate Banking Committee, Powell said that stablecoins can be used with the Central Bank official digital currencies CBDC (Central Bank Digital Currency is fiat money in digital form, which are issued and provided by the Central Bank). But this is not what allowed crypto quotes to move north, but the general weakening of the dollar and the return of investors' risk appetites.

As mentioned above, Jerome Powell made it clear that the Federal Reserve has not yet decided to reduce its balance sheet by almost $9 trillion, and that there will be no four rate hikes in 2022, but no more than three. As a result, the DXY dollar index went down, while stock indices and cryptocurrency quotes went up.

BTC/USD dropped to $39,660 on January 10. It has not fallen this low since September 2021. However, then, following the growth of the S&P500, Dow Jones and Nasdaq, it rose to $44,300 on January 12, and the total capitalization of the crypto market exceeded the psychologically important level of $2 trillion once again, reaching $2.091 trillion. But the Crypto Fear & Greed Index did not get out of the Extreme Fear zone, although it rose from 15 to 21 points.

It is clear that it is too early to talk about the beginning of a new rally in the crypto market. The BTC/USD pair is 35% below its all-time high, and the total capitalization is still very far from the almost $3 trillion that it reached on November 10, 2021. And, if the dollar starts to gain strength again, we can expect digital assets to return to a downward trend.

Of course, crypto enthusiasts predict as usual that top coins will soon rise to new heights. Changpeng Zhao, CEO of the Binance crypto exchange, claims in an article for Fortune that global adoption of cryptocurrencies will jump from the current 5% to 20% in 2022. And Galaxy Digital founder Mike Novogratz sees the 35% drop as just a “healthy pullback.” In his opinion, the main cryptocurrency will find support around $38,000-40,000, after which it will return to growth. Nigel Green, CEO of consulting company DeVere Group, also states that now is the most convenient time to buy bitcoin in the current cycle.

However, some experts consider such sentiments to be too optimistic. Thus, the ENCRY Foundation predicts that bitcoin may return to growth only after its price drops to $28,000-30,000. “The flows of liquidity to the markets will decrease in the second half of 2022, after the completion of the asset repurchase program in the United States. Then bitcoin may fall to $30,000,” the company's specialists explain.

The current levels cannot yet be described as a market bottom. This is indicated by another expert, Viktor Pershikov, a leading analyst at 8848 Invest. According to him, conditions that have not yet been observed must be fulfilled for the formation of the bottom. This is a long flat (at least two months in the current circumstances) with the accumulation of long positions and an increase in open interest, a decrease in BTC sales by market participants as well as clarification of the speed and degree of tightening of monetary policy by world central banks.

“The current state of the crypto market is characterized by emotional selling to a large extent, including at a loss, which is typical for situations when retail participants are shaken out of the market. The current decline does not pose a threat for large BTC holders and is a normal market correction before further growth," Pershikov says. In his opinion, bitcoin will spend most of the year in the price range of $30,000-70,000.

It is clear that a serious growth of BTC is possible only with the same growth of interest in it from institutional investors. But they seem to be a problem for now. According to Bloomberg, only 5% of customers surveyed by JPMorgan believe that the bitcoin price will reach $100,000 by the end of 2022. More than 40% believe that it will only return to the $60,000 level. According to bank strategist Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, the fair value of the cryptocurrency ranges from $35,000 to $73,000.

As for bitcoin's main competitor, ethereum, crypto analyst Justin Bennett believes that “as long as ETH is below $4,000, you need to be careful” against the backdrop of a downtrend in the entire market. If only ETH returns to this area in the coming weeks and months and can gain a foothold there, then we can talk about the continuation of the strong bullish trend observed in 2021."

The analyst also looks at ETH against BTC and believes that the ETH/BTC pair could start a long-term rally to 0.18 BTC ($7.388) for 1 ETH, but this would require holding the 0.075 BTC ($3.077) level as support.

All of the above shows that the situation is currently ambiguous. And then how do you make money on virtual currencies? The answer to this question is given in our humorous crypto life hacks column by San Francisco (USA) resident Siraj Raval, who uses his 2018 Tesla Model 3 car for ethereum mining. To do this, he launched the corresponding free software on the Apple Mac mini M1, connecting it to the car's center console. Five graphics cards are powered by the Tesla battery. According to Raval, he mined for about 20 hours a day this way and earned from $400 to $800 a month during 2021.

The numbers do look attractive. It only remains to find about $50,000 to buy such a car and find out if the Chinese authorities will not consider this method of mining harmful and obsolete.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

https://nordfx.com/

Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX

CryptoNews of the Week



- Canadian entrepreneur and Shark Tank TV star Kevin O'Leary spoke to Anthony Pompliano about how sovereign wealth funds in the Middle East are considering mining possibilities. In his opinion, they can enter this space within the next two to three years focusing on the shares of "environmentally friendly" companies.
The businessman did not rule out the creation of his own mining company. In addition to the approval of his initiative by the authorities, O'Leary would like to enlist the support of the inhabitants of the territory associated with its deployment. The entrepreneur called the creation of opportunities for mining companies to reflect income from cryptocurrency mining in financial statements as another condition. He believes this will create an incentive to invest for O'Leary and other financiers.

- The bubble is deflating, so the bitcoin price may fall to $30,000. This opinion was expressed by specialists from the investment company Invesco in their list of “incredible but possible” results for 2022. “Bitcoin’s mass marketing reminds us of stockbrokers' activity leading up to the 1929 crash,” they write.
According to the experts, the drop in quotes from highs around $69,000 to $42,000 in early January is exactly in line with the bubble pattern. This trajectory assumes that the asset will lose 45% of its value within 12 months after the peak. That is, the price will fall to $34,000-$37,000 by the end of October and to $30,000 by the end of 2022.
At the same time, Invesco admitted that they made a mistake with the forecast for 2021, when they predicted a fall in the BTC price below $10,000. Analysts explained their mistake by the fact that bitcoin seems to pass not through one, but through a series of bubbles.

- Guido Buehler, CEO of SEBA licensed cryptocurrency bank, gave an opposite forecast. He believes that digital gold could rise to $75,000 by the end of 2022, according to CNBC. “Our internal valuation models point to a price between $50,000 and $75,000. I am quite sure that we will see this level,” he said, adding that the volatility of bitcoin will remain high, but the asset will be able to test new record levels, the only question is the timing.

- TV presenter, filmmaker and former trader Max Kaiser still believes that bitcoin will hit $220,000 this year. He explained in another interview why his forecast was not realized last year. “As for 2021, I said we would get to $220,000 per coin, which is a typical four-year cycle. What we had in 2021 was a massive mining collapse in China, the hash rate fell by 50%. We have recovered since then and are about to reach a new all-time record hash rate. That's why I'm moving my goal from 2021 to 2022."
“There is a price, there is a hash rate and there is a complexity setting: these are three things you need to keep in mind,” Max Keiser explains. “I have always said that the price lags behind the hash rate, so once we see its new all-time highs, new all-time highs of the bitcoin price will follow.”

- Another cryptocurrency analyst, Justin Bennett, believes that bitcoin is in for a decent rally in the near future. He reviewed BTC historical price movement models that show that the asset is expected to rise by 20-30%. “You can see since the beginning of 2021 that when bitcoin finds a low below the liquidation level, it makes a move up. The average rate of such movement is about 63%, and the lowest was in April, about 27%. – says the expert. “If you take this data and look at the low around $40,000, then a minimum move of around 27% would take the market to around $50,000. This is highly likely given that the $50,000-53,000 range is very important, and sellers will defend this range as resistance. But bitcoin first needs to break the $45,600 mark to start the rally.”

- The number of vacancies related to the cryptocurrency industry in the US increased by 395% in 2021. Such data is provided by the LinkedIn social network. The sample has included ads containing the words "bitcoin", "ethereum", "blockchain" and "cryptocurrency". At the same time, the number of vacancies in the technology sector increased by 98% over the year.
LinkedIn noted that while most jobs were posted by companies specializing in software and finance, interest in crypto-related candidates was also shown in other areas. We are talking about consulting, accounting, hardware and recruiting.

- The owners of the fake YouTube channel of the head of MicroStrategy Michael Saylor lured 26 BTC (about $1.1 million) from one of the users. The scheme of fraud was common and widespread: they promised on behalf of Saylor to “double” any amount sent to the specified address in cryptocurrency. No matter how much is written about this type of scam, there are still those who fall for this bait, driven by greed.
“489 of these scam channels were launched on YouTube last week. We complain about them every 15 minutes, they are blocked after a few hours, but scammers launch new ones,” the real Saylor wrote in his verified Twitter account.

- According to Peter Brandt, a Wall Street trader with 45 years of experience, he expects a further decline in the price of ethereum. To date, this altcoin has already fallen in price by 36% from its all-time high of $4,878 recorded on November 10, 2021. Brandt is pessimistic as he believes that from a technological standpoint, ethereum is “a very complex, costly, and user-inconvenient platform in terms of its use for NFTs, special tokens, and its involvement in the metaverse.” Based on this, Brandt concludes that ETH will lose points in the eyes of investors, giving way to competitors.

- Data from the Glassnode platform shows that investors are buying up ethereum, despite the fall in its value. As mentioned above, this digital currency has lost 36% of its value in two months. At the same time, the number of ETH wallets with a non-zero balance reached a new high of 73,025,019. Network activity is also increasing, which indicates the desire of investors to take advantage of the correction and buy as many tokens as possible. The average daily number of transactions on the blockchain exceeds 1.2 million at the moment.
According to Glassnode analysts, ETH will trade in a narrow range until a clear vector of movement for the US stock market is formed. If the capital goes into risky assets again, then the ethereum will resume the rise along with bitcoin.

- Popular analyst PlanB is considered one of the main supporters of the theory that BTC will grow to $100,000 in 2021. He developed a forecasting model for the behavior of the bitcoin price (S2F), the signals of which indicated the prospects for such a rise.
Despite the fact that the S2F forecast did not come true, PlanB continues to stick to his theory. He is confident that bitcoin has not yet realized the potential laid in it by the 2020 halving. According to the analyst, the coin is now near local lows and is preparing to renew all-time highs in March. According to the analyst, the peak value of bitcoin within the current cycle can be recorded in July-August 2022.
Analysts of the Twitter channel Root largely agreed with PlanB's opinion. They also believe that bitcoin's growth cycle is not yet complete and is ready to resume growth.

- Umar Farooq, Head of the Cryptocurrency Division at JPMorgan Onyx, compared the current level of development of the cryptocurrency market with the music streaming industry in the 90s. “There was a thing called Napster in the 90s. It was clumsy. Not everyone could use it. And 20 years later, you have Apple Music and Spotify. We live in the era of Napster. We just don't know what Spotify looks like. So I think cryptocurrencies will remain. I just don't know in what form," Umar Farooq said. According to him, the industry has already survived the era of the "Wild West" and has now become an established industry, attracting more and more users.
Earlier, the JPMorgan analyst opined that reduced volatility would enable bitcoin to reach $73,000 in 2022, and the “promised” $146,000 in the long term.


#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

https://nordfx.com/

Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX

Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for January 24 - 28, 2022

EUR/USD: FOMC Meeting: the Day the Markets Are Waiting For

The main event not only of the next week, but of the whole month will certainly be the meeting of the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) of the US Federal Reserve on January 26. Will the regulator raise interest rates now? Or in March? Or will it postpone the curtailment of incentives indefinitely? These questions remain unanswered.

Recall that the roadmap includes three main points at the moment: 1) curtailing the emergency stimulus program in March, 2) three increases in the key rate in 2022, the first of which may also occur in March, after which 3) the regulator will begin to normalize the balance. However, nothing lasts forever under the moon, the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve either. So, these points are not constant at all and can be changed.

Even ECB President Christine Lagarde said last week that the European Central bank has already begun to react and is ready to adjust its policy if facts and figures require it. Although it is not yet very clear what “it has already begun to react” is. And “ready” is a very loose concept.

According to the same Ms. Lagarde, a too rapid rate increase could slow down the growth of the Eurozone's GDP. So why then reduce monetary stimulus and raise the key rate, especially since, according to the bank's management, the surge in inflation is a temporary phenomenon? And inflation in the US is growing faster than in the Eurozone. So let the Fed have a headache about how to stop it. And the ECB can wait until 2023 to raise rates, and at the same time see how things go overseas.

A clear difference between the US Central Bank's hawkish stance and its European counterpart's dovish stance is a strong support for the dollar, pushing the EUR/USD down. However, there are times when the actions of investors are determined not by real economic and political factors, but by rumors spread by speculators.

Something similar seems to have happened on January 11th. Speaking in the US Congress that day, Jerome Powell stated once again that in order to combat the record for forty years inflation, the Fed is going to raise the refinancing rate at least twice this year, and that if necessary, it can be raised three times. That is, nothing new was actually said. But, thanks to rumors, the market for some reason was waiting for the number "four” and was disappointed because it did not sound. As a result, the DXY dollar index went into a deep peak, and the EUR/USD pair went north instead of moving south.

Due to inflation data in the US, the euro strengthened its positions even more the next day, January 12, and the EUR/USD pair went further up having broken through the border of the medium-term side channel 1.1220-1.1385. A nine-week high was reached on the morning of January 14 at 1.1482. After that, everything went back to normal. The market realized that there were no real reasons for the euro to strengthen, and the pair found itself within the 1.1220-1.1385 channel once again on Tuesday, January 18, reaching the local bottom at 1.1300 on January 21. The final chord was played at 1.1343.

At the time of writing, most (55%) of the D1 oscillators are red, 20% are green and 25% are neutral gray. Trend indicators have 90% red and only 10% green. Among experts, the majority (55%) support the strengthening of the dollar, 45% are for its fall. The nearest resistance zone is 1.1370-1.1385, then 1.1400-1.1435, 1.1480 and 1525. The nearest support zone is 1.1300-1.1315, then 1.1275 and 1.1220. This is followed by the November 24 low of last year at 1.1185 and the 1.1075-1.1100 zone.

As for the economic calendar for the upcoming week, besides the FOMC meeting of the US Federal Reserve and the subsequent press conference of its management, we can note the release of data on business activity in Germany and the Eurozone (Markit index) on Monday, January 24. Preliminary data on US GDP will be released on Thursday, January 27, as well as the volume of orders for capital goods and durable goods. (Since the purchase of such goods usually involves large investments, these data reflect the economic situation in the United States, including the inflationary component.) And, finally, data on German GDP will be published at the end of the working week, on January 28.

GBP/USD: Rate Up Bet

The dollar strengthened its position against the pound slightly over the past week. If the GBP/USD pair was at the height of 1.3748 on January 13, it fell to 1.3545 on the evening of January 21. According to some experts, it's all about he British currency being generally overbought. After the December decision of the Bank of England to raise the interest rate from 0.1% to 0.25% for the first time in three years, the pair showed an increase of about 575 points. So the current fall of 200 points may not mean a medium-term trend reversal, but only a temporary correction.

The pound has a lot of chances to return to growth, even despite the hawkish position of the US Federal Reserve. The CPI published on January 19 showed that inflation in the UK rose to its highs in more than 15 years, reaching 5.4% (previous reading 5.1%, forecast 5.2%). The continuing growth of inflationary pressure may force the regulator to raise the key rate as early as at the next meeting on February 03. It is possible that at the same time, against the backdrop of a moderate impact of the omicron strain on the economy of the United Kingdom, plans to reduce monetary stimulus (QE) introduced during the COVID-19 pandemic may also be revised.

A survey conducted by Reuters among 45 experts showed that most of them (65%) expect the Bank of England to raise rates again on February 03, to 0.5% this time. If this happens, then, according to Scotiabank strategists, the GBP/USD pair may return to levels around 1.3800.

More than 75% of analysts expect the rate to be raised to 0.5% by the end of March. Also, according to the median forecast, the British regulator will raise the rate by another 25 basis points in the Q3 (up to a quarter earlier than expected). After that, another increase will follow, up to 1.0%, approximately at the beginning of 2023.

However, as for the forecast for the next few days, 60% of experts side with the bears, expecting the pair to fall at least to the 1.3450-1.3500 zone. Most of the indicators on D1 agree with this forecast: 60% of oscillators point to sell (although 10% are already in the oversold zone), 20% recommend buying and 20% remain neutral. Among trend indicators, 40% look up, 60% look down.

The supports are located at 1.3525, 1.3480, 1.3430, 1.3375, the next strong support is 100 points lower. The levels and resistance zones are 1.3570-1.3600, 1.3640, 1.3700, 1.3750, 1.3835 and 1.3900.

The Bank of England meeting will only take place in early February, and there won't be much important macro data from the UK next week. The publication of the Markit business activity index may cause increased volatility on Tuesday, January 24. Although, most likely, investors will not pay much attention to it on the eve of the US Federal Reserve meeting.

USD/JPY: Yen as a Safe Haven

The meeting of another central bank, Japan, took place last week, on January 18. As expected, the key rate remained at the same negative level, minus 0.1%. As we wrote earlier, according to this regulator, the country does not need a strong currency, and a weak yen is more likely to help the economy, as it supports Japanese exports and corporate profits.

In general, last week's results for the USD/JPY pair can be assessed as neutral. First, it went up and rose to the height of 115.05 on Tuesday, January 18. Then the trend changed to a downtrend, and the pair dropped to where it was trading a week ago, to the zone of 113.60-114.00 by the end of the five-day period.

The Japanese currency was supported by the weakening of the risk appetite of the market. Investors began to abandon risky assets once again in favor of the yen, which plays the role of a "safe haven". The reasons for this change in sentiment were forecasts for rising inflation, uncertainty about the monetary policy of world central banks and the growth of geopolitical tensions.

The USD/JPY pair finished last week at 113.66, that is, within the trading range 113.40-114.40, where it has regularly been in the last three months. And although 60% of analysts vote for its growth, 25% for a fall and 15% for a sideways trend, the median forecast suggests that it will stay within this channel. Of course, provided that the US Federal Reserve does not present any surprises at its meeting. And you should not forget about the international political situation, there are also possible surprises, and very unpleasant ones at that.

Among the oscillators on D1, 100% are facing south, although 25% of them are already giving signals that the pair is oversold. Among trend indicators, 65% recommend selling, 35% recommend buying. Support levels are 113.50, 113.20, 112.55 and 112.70. The nearest resistance zone is 114.00-114.25, 114.40-114.65, then there are levels 115.00, 115.45, 116.00 and 116.35.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: It Is Not Just Winter in the Crypto Market, It Is Polar Cold



Quotes of risky assets remain under strong pressure in anticipation of the US Federal Reserve meeting. The Dow Jones, S&P500 and Nasdaq stock indices have been losing their positions for almost the entire month of January. But as for the top cryptocurrencies, they have been quite successful in repulsing bear attacks for the last two weeks. If we talk about bitcoin, buyers did their best to keep the BTC/USD pair quotes from reaching the psychologically important horizon of $40,000. However, the bears managed to break through the defense on Friday, January 21 and lower the pair to $36,160. The total capitalization of the crypto market flew down as well, falling to $1.72 trillion, and the Crypto Fear & Greed Index was firmly stuck in the Extreme Fear zone, dropping to 19 points.

The situation, according to a number of experts, does not bode well for cryptocurrencies at the moment. The bubble is deflating, so the bitcoin price may fall to $30,000. This opinion was expressed by specialists from the investment company Invesco, drawing an analogy with the crash of 1929.

The decline from the $69,000 highs is exactly in line with the bubble pattern, analysts say. This trajectory assumes that the asset will lose 45% of its value within 12 months after the peak. That is, according to their calculations, the price will fall to $34,000-$37,000 by the end of October and to $30,000 by the end of 2022.

At the same time, Invesco admitted that they made a mistake with the forecast for 2021, when they predicted a fall in the BTC price below $10,000. Analysts explained their mistake by saying that bitcoin seems to be going through not one, but a series of bubbles. (Although, perhaps, Invesco experts were just in a hurry, and this forecast will come true this year).

Popular analyst PlanB had made a mistake with his forecast for the past year as well. Recall that he developed a model for predicting the behavior of the bitcoin rate (S2F), the signals of which indicated the prospects for BTC to rise to $100,000 in 2021. Despite the fact that the S2F forecast did not come true, PlanB continues to stick to his theory. He is confident that bitcoin has not yet realized the potential laid in it by the 2020 halving. According to the analyst, the coin is now near local lows and is preparing to renew all-time highs in March. According to the analyst, the peak value of bitcoin within the current cycle can be recorded in July-August 2022.

Another unsuccessful predictor was TV presenter and former trader Max Kaiser. He explained In another interview why his forecast of $220,000 for bitcoin was not realized last year. “As for 2021, I said we would get to $220,000 per coin, which is a typical four-year cycle. What we had in 2021 was a massive mining collapse in China, the hash rate fell by 50%. We have recovered since then and are about to reach a new all-time record hash rate. That's why I'm moving my goal from 2021 to 2022."

“There is a price, there is a hash rate and there is a complexity setting: these are three things you need to keep in mind,” Max Keiser explains. “I have always said that the price lags behind the hash rate, so once we see its new all-time highs, new all-time highs of the bitcoin price will follow.”

Guido Buehler, CEO of SEBA cryptocurrency bank, calls a three times more modest goal. He believes that digital gold could rise to $75,000 by the end of 2022. “Our internal valuation models point to a price between $50,000 and $75,000. I am quite sure that we will see this level,” he said, adding that the volatility of bitcoin will remain high, but the asset will be able to test new record levels, the only question is the timing.

Cryptocurrency analyst Justin Bennett's forecast can also be classified as optimistic, although the numbers here are even smaller. Bennett reviewed BTC historical price movement models that show that the asset is expected to rise by 20-30%. “It can be seen that starting from early 2021, bitcoin, finding the minimum below the liquidation level, then makes an upward movement. The average rate of such movement is about 63%, and the lowest was in April, about 27%. - the expert says. “If you take this data and look at the low around $40,000, then a minimum move of around 27% would take the market to around $50,000. This is highly likely given that the $50,000-53,000 range is very important, and sellers will defend this range as resistance.

There is no clear opinion on the future of ethereum either. Some still hope that the ETH/USD pair will meet 2023 around $7,000-10,000, while others expect the coin to crash after bitcoin. For example, Peter Brandt, a Wall Street trader with 45 years of experience, expects a further decline in the price of ethereum. In his opinion, from a technological point of view, this altcoin is “a very complex, costly, and user-inconvenient platform in terms of its use for NFTs, special tokens, and its involvement in the metaverse.” Based on this, Brandt concludes that ETH will lose points in the eyes of investors, giving way to competitors.

Peter Brandt's forecast is quite controversial. Indeed, the slow protocol has led to delays in transactions and a significant increase in fees. Sometimes a transaction costs more than $50, which is very expensive compared to the competition. For example, the commission is less than a cent in Solana. However, due to its high decentralization, ethereum is still the first in terms of the use of smart contracts. At the moment, this altcoin dominates the rest of the blockchains in the DeFi sector with $157 billion of blocked funds or 66% of the total market. Its lead is even greater in the NFT sector: here ETH is almost a monopoly as its share exceeds 90%.

It is possible that its share will decrease over time due to competition, but many experts still promise a bright future for this altcoin. The transition to the proof-of-stake protocol and the subsequent network scaling should help it maintain its leading position. The “X hour” for these steps is scheduled for the Q2 2022 at the moment. However, there is a certain risk that the date will be postponed again. This does not seem to scare investors much though. According to the Glassnode platform, they are buying up coins despite the drop in their value.

Ethereum has already lost about 50% of its value in two months. At the same time, the number of ETH wallets with a non-zero balance has reached a new high of 73,025,019. Network activity is also increasing, which indicates the desire of investors to take advantage of the correction and buy as many tokens as possible. The average daily number of transactions on the blockchain exceeds 1.2 million at the moment.

According to Glassnode analysts, ETH will trade in a narrow range until a clear vector of movement for the US stock market is formed. If the capital goes into risky assets again, then the ethereum will resume the rise along with bitcoin.

But when will this happen?

And will it happen at all?



NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

https://nordfx.com/