daily market analysis from forexmart

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Fundamental Analysis: February 9

The USA labor market attracts the attention of all traders through its statistics. The dollar still manage to stabilize its spot in spite of the fact that the Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report has not stretched out even to a moderate status of what was reported 190,000 but only reflected 151,000 and the preceding value was re-assessed downward. But somehow, the trades were different directed on Monday.

A solid leap of 0.5% from 0.0% was made by the US Average Hourly Earnings. In the meantime, having a sudden fall by 5.0%, the unemployment rate attained a recurrent low level of 4.9%. A very vital thing for the Fed is the increase of the wage rate, pertaining to the inflation acceleration prospects that results to the dollar disregarding the poor NFP and drew attention on the Hourly Earnings outcome. The EURO did not show any pivotal data. The EUR/USD showed a slight increase by the end of the trades.

It is always a traditional bearish factor for British currency the bond yield spreads growth of the US and UK government as a result of the Friday's labor market release. However, the oil market bulls were extended which has a positive effect on the pound value. The pound/dollar returned upwards after a decrease.

The publishing of the Monetary Policy Meeting minutes will be held on February 18. In the meantime, the unpredictability in the world markets have a negative effect on business sentiment as stated by the Bank of Japan chairman. The currency pair USD/JPY aggressively decreased.

Technical Analysis for GBP/USD: February 10

The outpouring of the capital from the British assets cause the government bonds yield remarkably lessen in opposition to the US Treasuries and the German bonds. In turn, this component gave a negative effect on the Cable. The Sterling were rather toned up.

The first support occurs at 1.4400 and at 1.4320 subsequently. The first resistance stands at 1.4480 and at 1.4560 subsequently.

A poor and confirmed buy signal was found. The price is on top of the Ichimoku Cloud and it is over the Chikou Span. The Tenkan-sen creates a descending motion and the Kijun-sen forms a horizontal motion, displaying a "Dead Cross". The ascending motion will remain as much as the price is over the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in an impartial location. The price is increasing. We may hope for the stabilization at the present levels. The descending bounce probable target is at 1.4400. If the price increases it will break over 1.4480.

Fundamental Analysis: February 11

Generally, the trader's adherence regarding the world's economic development loosen up and the energy sector's fate is a factor for a new wave of stock indices selling. Immense slate of companies' insolvency abreast with the Deutsche Bank difficult situations whose shares have dropped to the record lows, dispirited investors from trading high-risk assets.

We must not rely on the remarkable growth of euro in the medium term due to the industrial production and trade balance poor statistics of Germany for December. In 2015, the industrial production signified an increase of 0.8% but decreased by 2.2%. It is not exceedingly profitable to have a sturdy euro as we find a stable negative trend. The EUR/USD reduced by the end of the trades.

The UK issued the industrial production deliverance for the month of December. The index occurs at -1.1% m/m. The GBP/USD pair, in spite of poor manufacturing industry data, rapidly left the lows. The pair slightly grew.

This week key event is part of the speech of Janet Yellen, an American economist, to Congress. Her perspective concerning the economy state and the monetary policy future shall determine additional prospects of the dollar which has weakened lately. The USD/JPY pair decreased by the end of the trades.

Janet Yellen stated that their goal to expand the interest rates in short-term may loosen up due to the risks in the US economy. The China's economic innovation set a negative effect on the US economy and the trader's inflation anticipations keep on decreasing. The Fed chairman did not discuss about the probable interest rates increase yet the mentioned risks cause her to speak softly pointing out concerns regarding this year's Fed rate hikes.

Technical Analysis for GBP/USD: February 12

The GBP/USD pair paid no attention to the poor UK data. In January, the industrial production decreased by 1.1% m/m and 0.4% y/y against -0.1% and +1.0% and the former outcome at the level of -0.8% and +0.7%. The GDP of the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) for January was approximately +0.4% against the preceding result of +0.6%.

The first support occurs at 1.4480 and at 1.4400 subsequently. The first resistance stands at 1.4560 and at 1.4630 subsequently.

The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is over the Chikou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen form a horizontal movement.

The MACD indicator is in a positive location. The price strengthened.

The way to resistance level of 1.4560 will paved if the price breaks 1.4480 and up. If the price sets under the support 1.4400, the descending trend in the short term may proceed. The possible target is 1.4320.

Fundamental Analysis: February 15

A down fall of stock markets is an aftermath of concerns about the global economic outlook which also caused the US dollar to be under pressure last Friday. The demand for the yen and the euro heightened. And because of the celebration of Chinese New Year, the Chinese market was closed.

The Japanese Finance Minister enlightened the investors that the fleet growth of Japanese yen could be a factor of the regulator's mediation. If there's a need to restrict the yen's growth, the bank will take all the necessary measures to make this happen. The exchange rate has been lately demonstrating quite sharp inconsistency that vary from the BoJ's financial policy, the Finance Minister stated.

The Gross Domestic Product of the Eurozone (q/) stayed at the same level of 0.3%, as claimed by the Eurostat.

On Friday, the US retail sales forecast for January was issued. The report was at 0.1%, the index occurred at 0.2%. In the initial estimate, the Michigan University Consumer Confidence Index for February was anticipated to increase by 92.6 from 92.0 in January. The index occurred at 90.7, much lesser than it was expected.

Technical Analysis for EUR/USD: February 16

On yesterday's trades, the EUR/USD pair decreased. Before this, the pair's progress was caused by the break out from the risky assets together with the opposite Eurozone data. Exceeding the report, the Eurozone economy increased by 0.3% q/q in the fourth quarter. Traders' attention were dragged by the ECB President Mario Draghi's performance yesterday. As stated by him, the economic restoration is proceeding at medium pace.

The first support occurs at 1.1150 and at 1.1050 subsequently. The first resistance stays at 1.1260 and at 1.1350 subsequently.

The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is over the Chikou Span. The Tenkan-sen creates a descending movement and the Kijun-sen forms a horizontal movement which creates a "Dead Cross".
The MACD indicator is in a negative location. The price is falling.

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Fundamental Analysis: February 17

A new week of trading has begun with a positive entry of the dollar. The purchases of the US currency give sustenance to the positive sentiment for the world stock exchange. And even the recurrence of China to the market after the holidays did not ruin the sentiments. In January, the imports and exports quantity from China reduced by 18.8% and 11.2%.

The market in Europe has been out-powered by the banking sector shares. For the Euro, which is a funding currency, the "risk appetite" of the investors is a negative factor as it is increasing. The Germany issued the ZEW Survey - Economic Sentiment for February. The index recent value was 10.2 and the report was 3.2 but it showed 1.0. The EUR/USD decreased.

An inflation report for January was issued by the UK. A sturdy labor market indicated that the yearly CPI growth could be a bit better than the agreement report of 0.4%. In November, wages grew by 1.02% while the unemployment rate reduced by 5.1%. Nevertheless, the CPI occurred at the reported median 0,3%. The GBP/USD pair aggressively decreased.

The negative macroeconomics data of Japan continue to regain. In the fourth quarter the Gross Domestic Product reduced by 0.4%. In 2015, the number of industrial manufacture has been falling for two consecutive years and the negative trend increased from 1.91% to 2.49%. In the beginning of the year, the aggressive build up of the yen brings further risks to the Japanese economy. The USD/JPY is stabilizing after a downtrend.

Technical Analysis for USD/JPY: February 18

The economic status of US signified critical signals again. The Housing Market Index fell from 60 to 58 and the Empire State Manufacturing Index displayed -16.64 against the reported -10.00, opposed to the expectations of traders. The Building Permits report for January was issued. The report was 1.204M while the index showed 1.202M. The Producer Price Index displayed 0,1% in opposition to the report of -0,2%.

The first support occurs at 113.80 and at 113.00 subsequently. The first resistance lies at 114.60 and at 115.40 subsequently.

A confirmed and sturdy sell signal was found. The price is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chikou Span. The Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen create a horizontal movement showing a "Golden Cross". The descending motion will be until the price is below the Cloud. The MACD indicator is found in an impartial location. The price is declining.

Technical Analysis for USD/CHF: February 19

An aftermath of the Fed's soft comments and the positive report of the trade balance in Switzerland is the dollar being under pressure.

The pair, after being low for four days was supported as the franc increased since the Switzerland's trade surplus turned to be noticeable as it grew higher contrary to the forecast. For January, the trade surplus reached 3.51 billion. The pair became stronger by the end of the trades.

The first support occurs at 0.9859, the next is at 0.9750 subsequently. The first resistance lies at 0.9960 and at 1.0100 subsequently.

The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chikou Span. The Tenkan-sen displays an ascending movement and the Kijun-sen forms a horizontal movement. The MACD indicator is in a positive location. The price is increasing.

Fundamental Analysis: February 22

The dollar unsuccessfully increase in spite the fact of positive stock markets sentiment and healthy labor market data of the USA. Since the reported inflation level was reached by China, investors were grateful about the scarcity of its negative forecasts. In addition, the dollar was also affected by the Fed's meeting minutes that was released on Wednesday. The traders have an implication about the tender tone of the regulator that there is an additional regress from December's plans.

The inflation would stay at low levels according to the ECB minutes. Mario Draghi stated that by the next meeting on March 10, the ECB was all set to carry out further monetary policy easing. We once again come by the dissimilar expectations of a policies change of the two central banks. The EUR/USD pair grew a little bit by the end of the trades.

For January, the UK issued retail sales release at the level of 2,3% m/m and 5,2% y/y in opposition to the reported 0,8 m/m and 3,6 y/y. In contrary to the previous month, the positive trend in the labor market permit us to hope for retail sales increase. In the past year, a growth of wages was recorded in the UK throughout the period of November to December. By the end of the trades, the GBP/USD pair displayed an increase.

The Gross Domestic Product of Japan in 2016 was 1.0% to 0.8% to which the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) demote its inflation report. In the beginning of this year, the Japanese yen was stabilized by 5.1% in opposition to the dollar. An aftermath of this is the decrease in the national products competitiveness in foreign markets. In January, the trade deficit in Japan reached 645.9 billion which is 5 times more than in the last quarter of 2015. By the end of the trades, the USD/JPY pair reduced.

Technical Analysis for GBP/USD: February 23

The main topic yesterday was the referendum of the British to stick within the European Union or to depart from it which will be held on June 23, 2016. Discrepancies of opinions in British society become more noticeable as the topic goes on and on.

The first support is at 1.4080 and at 1.4000 subsequently. The first resistance is at 1.4240 and at 1.4320 subsequently.

A confirmed and a sturdy sell signal was found. The price is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is below the Chikou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen create descending movement. The descending motion will remain until the price is below the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative location. The price is declining.

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Fundamental Analysis: February 24

The week was started with the dollar's aggrandizement over its competitor. In spite the fact that the oil price is aggressively rising, the US currency together with the stock assets managed to increased. The Markit Manufacturing PMI for February caused the dollar to slightly decelerate which was dropped to its bottom-most level of 51.0 since October 2012. The preceding value was 52.4 and the reported was 52.3.

In the 4th quarter, the Gross Domestic Product of Germany heightened unlike the recent quarter which correlates to the inflation rate in the 3rd quarter. This figure proved the preliminary evaluation. Hence, the Gross Domestic Product inflation rate reached 1.1% yearly. The EUR/USD pair became a bit stronger by the end of the trades.

The possible Brexit caused the GBP/USD pair to decreased. It is clear that the vigorous pound selling is due to the declaration of Mayor Boris Johnson, London, where he stated that he is all out support for the British exit from the European Union. The holding of the referendum on June 23 this year was confirmed by Prime Minister David Cameron. Despite of these advancement, the Citibank put up its estimation of the Brexit probability from 20-30% to 30-40%. The GBP/USD pair aggressively decreased.

On Tuesday, Governor Haruhiko Kuroda, Bank of Japan, stated that he did not see direct connection amid the monetary base growth and the inflation expectations. But still, Kuroda overvalue the effect of monetary policy major changes on public opinion. The USD/JPY pair is stabilizing.