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Mauzo: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

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    Re: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

    EUR/USD. January 18, 2021 – Euro continues to decline

    The euro continues to decline against the dollar on Monday, reaching 1.2060. Weak economic statistics from the US, as well as uncertainty in the timing of the discussion of Joe Biden's stimulus program put pressure on risky assets.

    It is noted that the package of measures to support the economy proposed by Biden includes direct payments to Americans in the amount of $1,400, a temporary increase in payments to the unemployed, and an increase in the minimum wage at the federal level to $15 per hour. However, experts believe that the new president will not be able to pass the stimulus plan in this form through Congress.

    This week, all the attention of the markets will be drawn to the speech in the Senate of the former chairman of the Federal Reserve System Janet Yellen on Tuesday. Market participants expect that the country's new finance minister will make it clear that they are taking an approach in which the dollar should be determined by the market. This will mean that the Ministry of Finance does not intend to interfere with the dynamics of the national currency.

    Today is a day off in the United States to celebrate Martin Luther King Day, so the pair will continue to trade weakly around 1.2080.

    Brent. January 18, 2021 – The oil market continues to decline on Monday

    On Monday, oil prices continued to decline, reaching $54.50 per barrel. Such dynamics was a consequence of the strengthening of the US dollar, as well as a decrease in traders' optimism amid an increase in the incidence of Covid in the world. However, statistics from China, showing GDP growth of 2.3% (more than forecast) and an increase in industrial production in December by 7.3%, limit the decline in oil prices today.

    Experts note that the oil market has grown strongly lately, and the current decline is giving it some respite. The key event for the market in the near future will be the inauguration of the US President-elect Joe Biden and his further economic program.

    Brent was also under pressure at the end of last week with data from the American oil service company Baker Hughes. The report reflected an increase in the number of operating oil rigs in the US last week by 12 units to 287 rigs. The number of work units has been increasing for eight consecutive weeks.

    The current Brent quote is $54.80. During the day, we expect a slight recovery in the price to the $55 per barrel area.

    اگرچہ مالی مارکیٹس میں ٹریڈنگ میں بہت زیادہ خطرہ ہوتا ہے، پھر بھی یہ اس شرط پر اضافی کمائی بناتی ہے اگر آپ صحیح حکمتِ عملی اختیار کریں۔ ایک قابلِ اعتماد بروکر جیسا کہ انسٹا فاریکس، کا انتخاب کر کے آپ بین الاقوامی مالی مارکیٹس تک رسائی حاصل کر سکتے ہیں اور مالی آزادی کی طرف اپنے راستے ہموار کریں۔ آپ یہاں سائن اپ کر سکتے ہیں۔


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    Re: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

    EUR/USD. January 19, 2021 – The pair is awaiting Biden's inauguration

    On Tuesday, the major currency pair started recovering from the 1.2050 area. The current quote EUR/USD is 1.2135.

    Today the macroeconomic calendar is empty, but market participants have something to think over. For example, the results of the Reuters poll showed that the new stimulus package from the ECB is unlikely to have a positive impact on the European economy. In particular, we are talking about the already agreed PEPP package of 185 trillion euros, which was extended for another 9 months. Against the backdrop of such pessimistic opinions, the economic outlook for the eurozone looks rather bleak.

    As for the United States, not everything is smooth here either. Former head of the Federal Reserve System Janet Yellen said that the US economy could find itself in a long and rather severe recession if Congress does not agree on additional support measures. Today, attention should be paid to Yellen's speech, which, as expected, Joe Biden intends to appoint the new head of the Federal Reserve System.

    The inauguration of the new US President-elect Joe Biden will take place tomorrow. Market participants are waiting for this event, so the dynamics of trading today will not differ in activity.

    January 19, 2021. Fundamental analysis of the oil market

    The oil market, which has been growing steadily since the beginning of November last year (when the first news of successful trials of coronavirus vaccines appeared), is gradually losing its impetus. Having managed to rise from the $40 per barrel area to $57 from October to January, today oil is traded near the $55 per barrel level.

    The January 2021 high at $57.5 was reached after Saudi Arabia unexpectedly announced its decision to unilaterally cut oil production in February and March (by 1 million barrels per day). Then the pandemic and its consequences on transportation and fuel demand again began to put pressure on quotations.

    At the same time, some support for the prices of «black gold» is provided by the approval of Joe Biden as the new US president. Market participants expect that its measures to support the economy will raise inflation, which has increased the demand for oil from speculators and investors.

    Taking into account the current fundamental background, it can be concluded that oil prices are unlikely to grow significantly in the near future. We believe that the range of fluctuations in Brent quotes will be represented by a corridor of $50-55 per barrel.

    Today prices are rising slightly from the $55 level in anticipation of a report from the International Energy Agency (IEA). The experts of the organization intend to share their forecasts for the further dynamics of the market, taking into account the new lockdowns in many countries.

    اگرچہ مالی مارکیٹس میں ٹریڈنگ میں بہت زیادہ خطرہ ہوتا ہے، پھر بھی یہ اس شرط پر اضافی کمائی بناتی ہے اگر آپ صحیح حکمتِ عملی اختیار کریں۔ ایک قابلِ اعتماد بروکر جیسا کہ انسٹا فاریکس، کا انتخاب کر کے آپ بین الاقوامی مالی مارکیٹس تک رسائی حاصل کر سکتے ہیں اور مالی آزادی کی طرف اپنے راستے ہموار کریں۔ آپ یہاں سائن اپ کر سکتے ہیں۔


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    Re: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

    EUR/USD. January 20, 2021 – Euro continues to rise above 1.2150

    On Wednesday, the euro continues to rise, reaching 1.2150. Yesterday, ex-head of the Federal Reserve System and future US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen made a speech, which market participants were looking forward to.

    Yellen calmed the markets by assuring them of additional fiscal stimulus and promised not to interfere with the dynamics of the dollar. The politician also noted that in the post-crisis period, the United States needs a weak currency in competition and said that the Treasury Department will fight against attempts by other central banks to manipulate the exchange rates of national currencies.

    Now, in order to reduce the rate of the single European currency, the ECB will have to somehow outplay the FRS, but the European regulator has long since exhausted the entire arsenal of stimulating instruments. The expansion of the QE program is unlikely to spur inflation, analysts say. Thus, with the strong weakening of the dollar and the ECB's inability to influence the euro rate, the EUR/USD pair has only a way up.

    Today we should pay attention to the data on inflation in the eurozone. Deflation has been raging in Europe for four months now. And the final data on consumer prices should reflect their continued decline at the level of -0.3%, which will put significant pressure on the euro rate and allow the bears to return quotes to the level of 1.21.

    An important event today will be the inauguration of Joe Biden and his first appearance as the new president of the United States.

    اگرچہ مالی مارکیٹس میں ٹریڈنگ میں بہت زیادہ خطرہ ہوتا ہے، پھر بھی یہ اس شرط پر اضافی کمائی بناتی ہے اگر آپ صحیح حکمتِ عملی اختیار کریں۔ ایک قابلِ اعتماد بروکر جیسا کہ انسٹا فاریکس، کا انتخاب کر کے آپ بین الاقوامی مالی مارکیٹس تک رسائی حاصل کر سکتے ہیں اور مالی آزادی کی طرف اپنے راستے ہموار کریں۔ آپ یہاں سائن اپ کر سکتے ہیں۔


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    Re: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

    USD/CAD. January 21, 2021 – Canadian dollar strengthens to 3-year highs

    The USD/CAD currency pair on Thursday dropped to the level of 1.2600. The Canadian dollar strengthened to a maximum of three years after the announcement of the results of the meeting of the Bank of Canada.

    As market participants expected, the regulator kept the interest rate unchanged at 0.25%. At the same time, it was announced that the rate would be near zero until at least 2023. The program of quantitative easing also remained unchanged, the volume of which currently amounts to 4 billion Canadian dollars per week.

    The Central Bank also shared its forecasts for economic growth this year. Experts expect GDP growth in 2021 to be 4.0%, slightly below the previous forecast of 4.2%, while in 2022 and 2023 the economy will grow by 4.8% and 2.5%, respectively.

    However, the «loonie» is showing growth, despite these expectations, as well as weak economic statistics. In particular, Canada's core CPI fell 0.4% in December after rising 0.2% in November, while CPI declined 0.2% after rising 0.1% a month earlier.

    Considering all of the above, the pressure on the Canadian dollar should have increased, but the loonie unexpectedly strengthened to highs. Analysts regard such dynamics as a temporary phenomenon, and the pair's growth may continue at any minute. An additional factor that could put pressure on the «Canadian» is one of Joe Biden's first decrees to stop the construction of the Keystone XL oil pipeline, which was actively supported by the Canadian authorities.

    اگرچہ مالی مارکیٹس میں ٹریڈنگ میں بہت زیادہ خطرہ ہوتا ہے، پھر بھی یہ اس شرط پر اضافی کمائی بناتی ہے اگر آپ صحیح حکمتِ عملی اختیار کریں۔ ایک قابلِ اعتماد بروکر جیسا کہ انسٹا فاریکس، کا انتخاب کر کے آپ بین الاقوامی مالی مارکیٹس تک رسائی حاصل کر سکتے ہیں اور مالی آزادی کی طرف اپنے راستے ہموار کریں۔ آپ یہاں سائن اپ کر سکتے ہیں۔


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    Re: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

    GBP/USD. January 22, 2021 – Pound falls under pressure from economic publications

    Yesterday the British pound fell to 1.3650, today the pair recovered to 1.3670.Sterling looks pretty stable against the dollar, despite the local correction. The fact is that the currency finally got rid of the strong pressure from the Brexit risks and the confrontation between the politicians of the European Union and London.

    At the same time, support for the currency today is also provided by successful vaccination in the UK against the background of a double lockdown, and perhaps the country's population will be able to return to their usual way of life in the second quarter.

    Macroeconomic statistics are negative today for the pound: retail sales in December rose only 0.3%, worse than the forecast for growth by 1.2%. Composite PMI also fell short of the forecast: 40.6 points in January against expectations of 50.7 points. The business activity index in the manufacturing sector was 52.9 points (forecast - 57.3), and in the service sector – 38.8 points (forecast - 49.9).

    Thus, at the end of the week sterling came under pressure from economic indicators. The RSI indicator is targeting the support area, which signals further currency weakening.

    اگرچہ مالی مارکیٹس میں ٹریڈنگ میں بہت زیادہ خطرہ ہوتا ہے، پھر بھی یہ اس شرط پر اضافی کمائی بناتی ہے اگر آپ صحیح حکمتِ عملی اختیار کریں۔ ایک قابلِ اعتماد بروکر جیسا کہ انسٹا فاریکس، کا انتخاب کر کے آپ بین الاقوامی مالی مارکیٹس تک رسائی حاصل کر سکتے ہیں اور مالی آزادی کی طرف اپنے راستے ہموار کریں۔ آپ یہاں سائن اپ کر سکتے ہیں۔


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    Re: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

    Brent. January 25, 2021 – Oil recovers after falling last week

    Brent oil quotes are growing on Monday, approaching $56 per barrel. The current price is $55.72.

    Last week ended with a fall in prices to $54.60 per barrel. The decline was driven by data on changes in US oil reserves. According to a published report from the Energy Information Administration, crude oil inventories rose 4.4 million barrels in the reporting week, reaching 486.6 million barrels. Analysts, on the other hand, had expected a decline in inventories by 1.3 million barrels from the previous week. Oil production in the United States remained unchanged at 11 million barrels per day.

    Additional pressure on prices was also exerted by the increase in the number of cases of coronavirus in China. Experts note that the deterioration of the epidemiological situation in China will inevitably affect the demand for oil.

    Today's growth in quotations was due to the news about the reduction in oil production in Iraq. It became known that the country intends to cut oil production in the first two months of this year in order to compensate for the violation of the terms of the OPEC + agreement from last year.

    EUR/USD. January 25, 2021 – The dollar started the week with a decline

    The main currency pair is trading at 1.2145 on Monday. The macroeconomic calendar for today is practically empty, attention should be paid only to the publication of the IFO business climate index in Germany. The indicator came out worse than forecast: 90.1 points in January against 92.2 in December and the forecast of 91.8 points.

    The US dollar is now showing mainly a downward trend. The fact is that Joe Biden has already officially assumed the presidency of the United States, and the markets are waiting for the imminent introduction of additional measures to stimulate the economy. Therefore, the dollar in its «safe» status is no longer popular as investors intend to buy.

    This week promises to be quite interesting. First, a meeting of the Federal Reserve System and a rate decision is scheduled. Market participants are confident that the rate will remain at the current level of 0-0.25% for a long time, however, the FRS comments will be of the greatest interest, which may become more optimistic.

    Secondly, interesting statistics from the United States will be presented: the January consumer confidence index from the Conference Board, the US GDP for the IV quarter of 2020, the parameters of personal income and expenses of Americans, as well as data on the trade balance.

    اگرچہ مالی مارکیٹس میں ٹریڈنگ میں بہت زیادہ خطرہ ہوتا ہے، پھر بھی یہ اس شرط پر اضافی کمائی بناتی ہے اگر آپ صحیح حکمتِ عملی اختیار کریں۔ ایک قابلِ اعتماد بروکر جیسا کہ انسٹا فاریکس، کا انتخاب کر کے آپ بین الاقوامی مالی مارکیٹس تک رسائی حاصل کر سکتے ہیں اور مالی آزادی کی طرف اپنے راستے ہموار کریں۔ آپ یہاں سائن اپ کر سکتے ہیں۔


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