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EUR/USD. March 29, 2021| Euro remains below 1.1800

The EUR/USD pair continues to move within a narrow range of 1.1750-1.1800. The main support for the US dollar last week was provided by economic statistics, which allowed the dollar index to reach a four-month high.

Individual spending fell 1%, while the expected decline was only 0.7%. At the same time, revenues fell 7.1% (vs. 7.3% forecast), and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index was revised upward (from 83.6 to 84.9). Moreover, the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits reached the lowest level for the entire period of the pandemic (684 thousand applications).

The IFO report on the index of the business climate in Germany helped to stop the fall in the euro: the indicator exceeded analysts' expectations, rising to 96.6 points. However, the euro is still under strong pressure from the difference in the epidemiological situation between the US and the eurozone. The United States plans to return to normal life in a few months, while the fight against coronavirus in Europe is far from successful. In Germany, they fear that the third wave of the pandemic will be the most destructive and they propose to return the curfew.

Today the macroeconomic calendar is empty, the pair will continue to fluctuate weakly below the 1.1800 level.

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EUR/USD. March 30, 2021 | Euro continues to decline to multi-month lows

The main currency pair continues to update its lows, reaching 1.1725. Sales of the European currency continue due to the deterioration of the situation with the coronavirus in the euro area, as well as against the background of the strengthening of the dollar, which is in demand due to the growing interest in «safe» assets.

On Tuesday, the economic calendar is not of particular interest, but the rest of the week will be quite informative. Today it is worth paying attention only to the important release on the consumer confidence index from the Conference Board for March. Analysts do not exclude an increase in the indicator from 91.3 to 97.0 points, which is very positive for the US dollar.

Tomorrow, President Biden will unveil his $3 trillion infrastructure project, and a key US non-farm employment report will be released on Good Friday (although markets in many countries, including the US, will be closed). Investors are preparing for the strongest payrolls in the last 5 months.

However, there are risks: Biden's infrastructure project could be financed by raising taxes, and these are new taxes in the amount of $1 to $3 trillion, and the higher the real figure, the stronger the pressure on the stock market will be.

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EUR/USD. March 30, 2021 | Euro continues to decline to multi-month lowsThe main currency pair continues to update its lows, reaching 1.1725. Sales of the European currency continue due to the deterioration of the situation with the coronavirus in the euro area, as well as against the background of the strengthening of the dollar, which is in demand due to the growing interest in «safe» assets.On Tuesday, the economic calendar is not of particular interest, but the rest of the week will be quite informative. Today it is worth paying attention only to the important release on the consumer confidence index from the Conference Board for March. Analysts do not exclude an increase in the indicator from 91.3 to 97.0 points, which is very positive for the US dollar.Tomorrow, President Biden will unveil his $3 trillion infrastructure project, and a key US non-farm employment report will be released on Good Friday (although markets in many countries, including the US, will be closed). Investors are preparing for the strongest payrolls in the last 5 months.However, there are risks: Biden's infrastructure project could be financed by raising taxes, and these are new taxes in the amount of $1 to $3 trillion, and the higher the real figure, the stronger the pressure on the stock market will be.

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GBP/USD. April 01, 2021 | British sterling is moderately recovering

The GBP/USD pair continues to trade in the range of 1.37-1.38. The current quote for the pair is 1.3775.

Sterling received support yesterday after the publication of UK GDP data, according to which the economy grew by 1.3% in the 4th quarter of last year. The actual numbers beat analysts' forecasts for a 1.0% q/q rise in GDP. By the end of 2020, the British economy fell by 7.4% y/y against the forecast of a failure of 7.8% y/y.

The pound received additional support today from the data on business activity in the manufacturing sector in Britain in March: the indicator rose to 58.9 against the forecast of growth to 57.9 points. In February, the index was fixed at 55.1 points.

On the side of buyers is also the corrective weakening of the US dollar against the background of fixing positions on the eve of Good Friday and on the eve of Friday's Non-farm Payrolls. Labor market statistics from ADP were released yesterday. According to the report, the number of new jobs in March increased by 517 thousand, which fell short of the forecast of 525 thousand.

The position of the British currency is also supported by the high rates of vaccination of the UK population and the related reduction in restrictive measures in the country.

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Brent. April 02, 2021| Oil starts to grow after the OPEC+ meeting

The price of Brent oil started to rise after the announcement of the results of the meeting of the heads of the OPEC+ countries. At the moment, the quotes rose to the level of $65.03 per barrel, the current price of the asset is $64.70.

The alliance, contrary to expectations, decided to gradually increase oil production within three months, starting in May. In particular, the collective increase in the current production level in May will amount to 350 thousand barrels per day, in June – 350 thousand barrels per day, and in July production will grow by 450 thousand barrels per day. Thus, the OPEC+ countries will increase production by more than 1 million barrels in three months.

Saudi Arabia may also cut some of its previously voluntarily assumed additional production limit of 1 million barrels per day. It is noted that the majority of OPEC+ members initially supported the extension of the existing cuts, but the general sentiment changed after Saudi Arabia (the actual leader of OPEC) offered to increase production.

April 05 | EUR / USD technical analysis: H4 chart, Pivot levels

The euro / dollar pair opened today directly above the weekly pivot level, then after a small upward wave broke it from top to bottom, testing the DS1 resistance, turned sharply and moved to growth.

Now buyers of EUR / USD are testing the DR1 level, if successful, one can expect further growth to the 1.1800 level, to the DR2 and WR1 lines, to the area of weekly highs.

When planning new deals, do not forget that trades today are held in small volumes and unexpected bursts of volatility and false breakouts of levels are possible.

Daily Pivot - 1.1765;Daily Resistance 1 - 1.1782, DR2 - 1.1802, DR3 - 1.1819;Daily Support 1 - 1.1744, DS2 - 1.1727, DS3 - 1.1707.

Weekly Pivot - 1.1752;Weekly Resistance 1 - 1.1802, WR2 - 1.1842, WR3 - 1.1891;Weekly Support 1 - 1.1712, WS2 - 1.1663, WS3 - 1.1622.

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April 06 | USD / JPY technical analysis: H4 chart, Pivot levelsThe pair US dollar against the Japanese yen started today trading under the daily and weekly pivot levels, then crossed them from the bottom up, but then turned around and moved to a decline.The price of USD / JPY rewritten the low since March 29 at 109.666, having tested the DS1 and WS1 levels.The pair is decreasing due to the general weakening of the American currency amid rising yields on government securities and US stock markets.Daily Pivot - 110.289;Daily Resistance 1 - 110.621, DR2 - 111.078, DR3 - 111.410;Daily Support 1 - 109.832, DS2 - 109.500, DS3 - 109.043.Weekly Pivot - 110.324;Weekly Resistance 1 - 111.278, WR2 - 111.915, WR3 - 112.869;Weekly Support 1 - 109.687, WS2 - 108.733, WS3 - 108.096.

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USD / CHF. 07.04 | Correction to line EMA 21
The US Dollar / Swiss currency pair dropped by about 600 points in yesterday's trading, to the 0.9300 resistance level, reinforced by the 21-day exponential moving average line - EMA 21.
Today, the USD / CHF price has renewed its minimum since March 23, 2020 at 0.9282, trying to gain a foothold below the 0.9300 level. If sellers push through the indicated resistance, I expect a further decline to the level of 0.9200 and below, to the point of convergence of the EMA 60 and EMA 200 lines. In case of a rebound, a new upward wave.
I will watch the price for the appearance of the key level 0.9300 and the appearance of additional signals to enter the market.
GBP / USD. 07.04 | "Rails" from the level 1.3900
The Pound Sterling / US Dollar currency pair formed a "rails" pattern on the chart with yesterday's daily candlestick, based on the resistance level of 1.3900, giving a signal to sell.
The price of GBP / USD has renewed its maximum since March 19 at 1.3918, after which it turned around and moved to a decline. Perhaps we saw a false breakout of the 1.3900 level and the pair will return to the movement within the downtrend.
It makes sense to take a closer look at sales according to the specified pattern, while it is safer to wait for the price to fix below the 60-day exponential moving average line - EMA 60.

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EUR / USD. 08.04 | "Pin bar" from the level 1.1900The EUR / USD currency pair has formed a pin-bar reversal pattern on the daily chart, rebounding from the resistance level of 1.1900, giving a signal to sell.At yesterday's trading, the EUR / USD price has renewed its maximum since March 23, 2020 at 1.1914. This week, the US dollar is under pressure, which allowed the pair to correct to the previously broken level of 1.1900.Apparently, the correction is coming to an end and the pair is ready to continue moving within the downtrend. It makes sense to take a closer look at the sales according to the specified pattern, while it is safer to wait for the breakdown of the EMA 21 and EMA 200 lines on the daily chart.April 08 | GBP / USD technical analysis: H4 chart, Pivot levelsThe pound to the US dollar at today's trading has rewritten the minimum since March 31 at around 1.3718.The price of GBP / USD has been moving in a sideways channel between the WS1 levels and the daily pivot level all day. Over the past two days, the pair has dropped by 1600 points, and today it went into correction.It is more likely that the downward trend will continue. A signal to enter the market can be the price fixing below the WS1 level.Daily Pivot - 1.3766;Daily Resistance 1 - 1.3809, DR2 - 1.3882, DR3 - 1.3925;Daily Support 1 - 1.3694, DS2 - 1.3651, DS3 - 1.3578.Weekly Pivot - 1.3794;Weekly Resistance 1 - 1.3882, WR2 - 1.3940, WR3 - 1.4029;Weekly Support 1 - 1.3736, WS2 - 1.3647, WS3 - 1.3589.Monthly Pivot - 1.3821.EUR / USD. 08.04 | "Pin bar" from the level 1.1900The EUR / USD currency pair has formed a pin-bar reversal pattern on the daily chart, rebounding from the resistance level of 1.1900, giving a signal to sell.At yesterday's trading, the EUR / USD price has renewed its maximum since March 23, 2020 at 1.1914. This week, the US dollar is under pressure, which allowed the pair to correct to the previously broken level of 1.1900.Apparently, the correction is coming to an end and the pair is ready to continue moving within the downtrend. It makes sense to take a closer look at the sales according to the specified pattern, while it is safer to wait for the breakdown of the EMA 21 and EMA 200 lines on the daily chart.April 08 | GBP / USD technical analysis: H4 chart, Pivot levelsThe pound to the US dollar at today's trading has rewritten the minimum since March 31 at around 1.3718.The price of GBP / USD has been moving in a sideways channel between the WS1 levels and the daily pivot level all day. Over the past two days, the pair has dropped by 1600 points, and today it went into correction.It is more likely that the downward trend will continue. A signal to enter the market can be the price fixing below the WS1 level.Daily Pivot - 1.3766;Daily Resistance 1 - 1.3809, DR2 - 1.3882, DR3 - 1.3925;Daily Support 1 - 1.3694, DS2 - 1.3651, DS3 - 1.3578.Weekly Pivot - 1.3794;Weekly Resistance 1 - 1.3882, WR2 - 1.3940, WR3 - 1.4029;Weekly Support 1 - 1.3736, WS2 - 1.3647, WS3 - 1.3589.Monthly Pivot - 1.3821.USD / CHF. 07.04 | Correction to line EMA 21The US Dollar / Swiss currency pair dropped by about 600 points in yesterday's trading, to the 0.9300 resistance level, reinforced by the 21-day exponential moving average line - EMA 21.Today, the USD / CHF price has renewed its minimum since March 23, 2020 at 0.9282, trying to gain a foothold below the 0.9300 level. If sellers push through the indicated resistance, I expect a further decline to the level of 0.9200 and below, to the point of convergence of the EMA 60 and EMA 200 lines. In case of a rebound, a new upward wave.I will watch the price for the appearance of the key level 0.9300 and the appearance of additional signals to enter the market.GBP / USD. 07.04 | "Rails" from the level 1.3900The Pound Sterling / US Dollar currency pair formed a "rails" pattern on the chart with yesterday's daily candlestick, based on the resistance level of 1.3900, giving a signal to sell.The price of GBP / USD has renewed its maximum since March 19 at 1.3918, after which it turned around and moved to a decline. Perhaps we saw a false breakout of the 1.3900 level and the pair will return to the movement within the downtrend.It makes sense to take a closer look at sales according to the specified pattern, while it is safer to wait for the price to fix below the 60-day exponential moving average line - EMA 60.

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Brent. April 12, 2021 | Oil rises moderately at the start of a new trading weekBrent crude oil continues to trade above $63 per barrel. The current quotation of the asset is $63.80 per barrel.Today, oil prices have started to rise on optimism about the recovery of the US economy, but the new wave of Covid-19 in Asia is limiting the rise in quotations. In the United States, about 70 million people have already been vaccinated, and in Europe, after tightening restrictions, the number of new cases of the disease has declined. At the same time, a record number of cases are recorded in India and other Asian countries, which will prevent the restoration of world tourism in the near future.This week, traders will be presented with monthly reports from OPEC and the International Energy Agency. They are expected to report on the growing demand from the global economy. Against this background, Brent crude oil may resume its upward movement and go above $64 per barrel.Last week, the IMF released a forecast that global GDP will grow by 6% this year, which is the fastest pace in 40 years. Traders predict that in the 2nd half of 2021, demand for hydrocarbons will increase and be able to offset the latest OPEC + decision to increase oil production by 2 million barrels between May and July.EUR/USD. April 12, 2021 | Euro rebounds on strong retail sales dataThe European currency is growing on Monday, breaking above the level of 1.1900. The current quote for the EUR/USD pair is 1.1915.The euro was supported by data on retail sales in Europe. The index in February increased by 3% compared to January, while the expected growth of 1.5%. Earlier last week, a report on industrial production for February was released, which put pressure on the euro. The indicator fell 1.6% m/m, while the market was expecting a 1.6% m/m gain. A month earlier, the index was down 2.0%.The USA on Friday presented the March producer price index, which rose 0.7% against the forecast of a rise of 0.2% m/m. In January, the indicator grew by 0.2% m/m. Today, the US is to release statistics on the execution of the federal budget in March, but this data is not reflected in any way on the exchange volatility. But the comments of the chairman of the US Federal Reserve System Jerome Powell may attract attention.

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Brent. April 13, 2021 | Oil is stable amid positive external backgroundBrent is on the rise on Tuesday, reaching $63.70 a barrel. Prices are supported by growing tensions in the Middle East, where Yemeni Houthis fired on Saudi Arabia's oil infrastructure the day before.An additional factor supporting «black gold» is optimism associated with the acceleration of vaccination rates and the improvement of the epidemiological situation in the world. On Sunday, US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell noted during his speech that the growth rate of the United States economy will accelerate in the coming months. And this, on the eve of the holiday season and the increased demand for motor fuel, raised expectations of an increase in demand for oil and petroleum products.Moreover, on the side of buyers – and economic statistics from China, where the volume of exports and imports exceeded the indicators of 2018 and 2019, and the volume of foreign trade increased by 29.2% compared to the same period last year. In the current environment, further growth in Brent quotes can be expected, to the area of $64.00 and above.EUR/USD. April 13, 2021 | The pair is consolidating at 1.19On Tuesday morning, the EUR/USD pair continues to consolidate at 1.1900. The euro is gaining ground against the dollar, despite quarantines in several of Europe's leading economies, low vaccination rates and worsening GDP growth forecasts for France and Spain.Local support for the euro was provided by yesterday's strong data on retail sales in the euro area. In February, consumer spending rose 3%, double the expectations of market participants. At the same time, the January figure was revised from -5.9% to -5.2%. In addition, last week the business activity indices in Germany were revised upwards, and the business climate indicator in the country reached the levels of June 2019 (96.6 points).Today, market participants are awaiting data on inflation and retail sales in the US (April 15). Analysts believe that vaccination of the population and social benefits should have stimulated March spending, and as a result, the figure could rise by 5.7%. Inflation is also rising, and these two indicators can provide significant support to the dollar.This week is also due to publish reports on the Small Business Optimism Index for March, as well as data on the number of open vacancies in the employment sector outside the US agricultural sector for the last month.

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GBP/USD. April 14, 2021 | Pound weakened after the release of GDP dataThe upward dynamics of the pound did not develop and the GBP/USD pair began to decline from the level of 1.3810. The current quote for the pair is 1.3750.The pressure on the British currency was exerted by weak statistics, according to which GDP growth for the month amounted to only 0.4%, while the forecast was 0.6%. On an annualized basis, the indicator also fell short of the forecasted values, demonstrating -7.8% instead of -7.3%. At the same time, the volume of production in February increased by 1.0% against the expectation of 0.5%.Moreover, the Bank of England announced that Chief Economist Andy Haldane will leave his position on the Monetary Policy Committee after the June meeting, and this negatively affected the dynamics of the pound. As you know, Haldane is opposed to lowering the interest rate to the negative zone, so now we can assume that this scenario will become more likely.However, the US dollar is still under pressure, and the yield on Treasury bonds has ceased to strengthen. Yesterday, dollar sales strengthened after the release of data on inflation in the US, which showed an increase of 2.6%. Today we are watching the speech of J. Powell, on whose comments the further dynamics of the dollar depends.EUR/USD. April 14, 2021 | Euro can easily reach 1.20EUR/USD continues to rise during Wednesday's trading, reaching 1.1975. The market practically ignored the weak data on business optimism in Germany from the ZEW. According to the data released, the index of economic expectations in April fell to 70.7 from 76.6 in March. Economists had expected the index to be 79.5. The index fell for the first time since November 2020.The main support for the pair is provided by the continuing pressure on the dollar. The American currency index sank 1.7% in just two weeks, falling below the support of 92.00 points.The sale of the dollar intensified after the release of statistics on the consumer price index in the United States. The growth of consumer prices in March amounted to 0.6% compared to the previous month, against the forecast of growth by 0.5%. Annual inflation in March amounted to 2.6% against the forecast of 2.5%. Today we should pay attention to the speech of the FRS Chairman Jerome Powell. If the Fed again points to continued soft monetary policy, the pressure on the dollar will intensify, which will allow euro buyers to gain a foothold above 1.20.

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Oil market. April 15, 2021 | Brent remains in the area of monthly highsOn Thursday, oil prices continued to be in the area of monthly highs, thanks to improved forecasts for global fuel demand. The current Brent quotation is $66.30 per barrel.Prices were supported by a report from the International Energy Agency (IEA), according to which oil demand is expected to grow by 5.7 million barrels per day in 2021 compared to 2020. And this is 230 thousand barrels per day more than previously predicted. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has also improved its forecast for global oil demand for the current year and is now expecting an increase of 5.95 million barrels per day.Additional support for quotations of «black gold» was provided by yesterday's data on crude oil reserves in the United States. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that oil reserves last week fell by 5.89 million barrels, while analysts had expected a half-cut, by 2.89 million barrels. In the current environment, oil prices will continue to trade above $66.00 per barrel.EUR/USD. April 15, 2021 | Euro is confidently approaching the level of 1.20The main currency pair continues its upward trend, approaching the level of 1.2000. The main support for the euro is provided by the growing demand for risky assets and the general weakness of the US dollar in the market.Earlier the head of the US Federal Reserve J. Powell said that the Federal Reserve will begin to reduce the volume of purchases of government bonds long before the interest rates will be revised. At the same time, the regulator did not even indicate an approximate timeframe, which exerted a certain pressure on the greenback's position.Yesterday, investors drew attention to the publication of a report in the US Beige Book, which showed that from the end of February to the current moment, economic activity in the country has been increasing and returning to a moderate pace, consumer spending is gradually increasing, and employment growth has noticeably accelerated. However, these factors are not yet helping the US currency to interrupt its decline.Today we should pay attention to the publication of the report on retail sales in the US for March. Analysts expect the indicator to rise 5.8% m/m after falling 3.0% m/m in February. In addition, the March figures for industrial production will be released. According to the average forecasts, the indicator could expand by 2.7% m/m against the decline in February by 2.2% m/m. If the forecasts are confirmed, the euro will not be able to overcome the level of 1.20.

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EUR/USD. April 19, 2021 | Euro has reached 1.2040EUR/USD is showing strong gains at the start of the new trading week, reaching 1.2040. The macroeconomic calendar is empty today, so the main factor behind the weakening of the US dollar is still the decline in the yield on 10-year US government bonds.At the same time, even positive statistics on retail sales in the United States did not help the greenback improve its positions in a pair with the euro. As a reminder, last week a report was published, according to which retail sales in March rose sharply by 9.8% m/m after falling by 2.7% m/m in February. The forecast assumed an increase of 5.8% m/m.The main event of this week will be the meeting of the European Central Bank (ECB) on Thursday. The regulator must make a decision on the rate (no changes are expected), as well as comment on further policy and the epidemiological situation in Europe.There are not many American statistics this week: it is worth paying attention to the data on sales of secondary housing and new buildings in March, as well as the parameters of the leading indicators index last month. In addition, there are preliminary data on PMIs in the manufacturing and services sectors from Markit. The eurozone, in turn, will also provide preliminary data on PMIs in the manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors for April.EUR/USD. April 16, 2021 | Euro keeps trying to reach the level of 1.20The EUR/USD pair continues attempts to reach the 1.2000 level. The current quote for the pair is 1.1980.Yesterday's statistics from the US was rather mixed. Retail sales rose sharply by 9.8% m/m in March after falling 2.7% m/m in February. The forecast assumed an increase of 5.8% m/m. Analysts note that such a strong growth is quite expected: this month the US population again received financial assistance. Moreover, weather conditions have finally stabilized in the United States, making consumers more mobile.At the same time, the volume of industrial production in the US in March increased by 1.4% m/m against forecasts of growth by 2.7%. However, despite the fact that these numbers are rather weak, they are the highest in the last 8 months.Statistics on the number of claims for unemployment benefits in the United States showed a decrease to 576 thousand against the previous figure of 769 thousand and the forecast for a reduction to 703 thousand.Today it is worth paying attention to the final inflation in Europe. The report confirmed the preliminary estimate, which showed earlier growth of the indicator from 0.9% to 1.3%.

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EUR/USD. April 20, 2021 | Euro is trying to reach the level of 1.21The US dollar continues to fall in price against the euro, approaching 1.2100. The current quote for the EUR/USD pair is 1.2070. The American currency is declining even despite the growth of government bond yields, strong data on employment and retail sales.At the same time, the euro was supported by an increase in the forecast of the investment bank Goldman Sachs, whose analysts adjusted the three-month target for the EUR/USD pair from 1.21 to 1.25. The outlook was upgraded amid expectations that the situation in the Eurozone will improve.The key event for the euro/dollar pair will be the ECB meeting on Thursday. Analysts expect that rates this time around are likely to remain near the lows, as they have throughout 2021. The regulator's comments on the rapid growth of the consumer price index in Europe and the yield on government bonds will be of much greater interest. But, in general, market participants do not expect any surprises or shocks.Today the macroeconomic calendar is not rich in events, so investors have the opportunity to calmly watch what is happening on the market and prepare for the ECB meeting.