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EUR/USD. May 13, 2021 | Dollar remains strong after inflation dataThe EUR/USD pair has weakened noticeably after the release of yesterday's statistics on inflation in the US. The current quote for the pair is 1.2050. According to the US Department of Labor, in April, consumer prices rose at their most in almost 12 years due to increased demand amid the opening of the economy. Excluding food and energy prices, consumer prices rose 0.9%, the highest since April 1982. Annualized inflation rose to 4.2%, the highest since 2008.There is a logical reason for this rise in prices: as the American economy recovers, the consumer is faced with a noticeably reduced supply, which pushes prices up.Additional pressure on the euro was exerted by macroeconomic reports from the eurozone. According to Eurostat, industrial production in the region rose 0.1% in March, after falling 1.2% a month earlier. Experts forecast an increase of 0.7%. On an annualized basis, the indicator grew by 10.9% against the forecast of 11.6%.Today we should pay attention to the report on the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits and the producer price index in the United States.

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GBP/USD. May 17, 2021 | Sterling weakly declines after rising to 1.41The British pound suspended its gains in the 1.4100 area and the GBP/USD pair bounced back to 1.4090. The pound is under pressure from concerns about new coronavirus outbreaks in the country. On Friday, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said that the weakening of the lockdown is in question due to the risk of the spread of the Indian strain of the coronavirus.Earlier, the dynamics of the dollar was influenced by economic reports from the University of Michigan: the consumer expectations index in May fell from 82.7 to 77.6 points, while the forecast assumed an increase to 85 points. The consumer sentiment index was 82.8 points against the forecast of 90.4 points. The index of current conditions fell from 97.2 to 90.8 points, experts had expected an increase to 99.6 points.Today the macroeconomic calendar is empty. Only the statements of the Bank of England and FOMC representatives can arouse interest.The RSI indicator weakly declines from the neutral zone, which indicates further moderate weakening of the pound sterling.GBP/USD. May 14, 2021 | Sterling rises moderately towards 1.4100The British currency continues to show signs of strengthening against the US dollar, recovering from 1.40 to 1.41. The current quote for the GBP/USD pair is 1.4080.The economic calendar for the UK is empty today, all investors' attention will be drawn to the statistics from the US. In particular, we are waiting for a report on retail sales, data on imports and exports, as well as on industrial production in April. Of particular interest will be the consumer expectations and sentiment index from the University of Michigan in May.In general, the pound sterling retains potential for growth, as the growth of the UK economy in March was better than forecasted: the economy grew by 2.1% compared to the previous month, while growth was expected by 1.5%. Moreover, yesterday the chief economist of the Bank of England Andrew Haldane said that inflation in the UK will exceed 2% by the end of 2021. He also noted that it is quite possible to expect double-digit GDP growth over the year.During the day, market participants will analyze statistics from the US, which will allow the GBP/USD pair to determine the direction of movement before the weekend.

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Brent. 18.05 | Oil market reached new highsThe oil market again demonstrates significant growth: Brent quotes rose today to $70 per barrel.The prices for «black gold» are supported by the improved forecasts for the demand for energy resources, despite the rather weak statistics from the USA and China. For example, in the Celestial Empire, the report on retail sales showed an increase of 17.7%, which is significantly worse than the expected 24.9%.Investors are quite optimistic, expecting that demand this year will still reach its peaks in the second half of the year. Similar forecasts were presented to OPEC and the International Energy Agency. It should be noted that analysts ignored the difficult epidemiological situation in India, the world's third largest oil importer.In addition to fundamental factors, Brent quotes are supported by the decline in the US dollar. Greenback is being sold amid the Fed's wait-and-see attitude, as well as weak US macroeconomic reporting. Recent reports indicate that the US economy will not recover as fast as previous forecasts suggested.

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Brent. May 19, 2021 | Oil declines after local highsOil prices are falling for the second day in a row amid concerns about lower demand due to a new wave of coronavirus in Asia. Additional pressure on Brent quotes is exerted by fears that the US Federal Reserve will raise interest rates due to rising inflation, which may limit further economic growth.On Wednesday, the price of «black gold» fell to $67.38 per barrel, although on Monday Brent was trading above $70. This growth was driven by optimism about the lifting of coronavirus restrictions in the United States and Europe. However, it did not last long as India, Taiwan, Vietnam and Thailand reported a sharp spike in Covid cases.Moreover, the uncertainty due to inflation has also forced investors to withdraw from riskier assets such as oil. Analysts note that the US Federal Reserve may raise rates due to fears of inflation, thereby affecting growth prospects and demand for commodities.A report from the American Petroleum Institute (API) was released yesterday, according to which US oil inventories rose by 620 thousand barrels, while gasoline and distillate stocks fell sharply last week. Today investors are awaiting the release of similar data on reserves from the US Energy Information Administration.GBP/USD. May 19, 2021 | Sterling is correcting after strong growth Yesterday was marked by a sharp rise in the pound sterling to the level of 1.4220. However, today the GBP/USD pair started to decline to the level of 1.4160.The British currency received support amid the improvement in the epidemiological situation in the UK, where quarantine restrictions have been significantly eased since May 17. An additional positive was brought by economic statistics, according to which, in April, the consumer price index rose by 0.6%, which coincided with expectations, and the producer purchase price index rose by 1.2%, which turned out to be better than the 1.1% forecast.At the same time, the pressure on the dollar was exerted yesterday by data on construction in the United States: the number of permits for building houses issued in April amounted to 1.76 million, while expectations were 1.77 million.Today, the American currency is strengthening as part of the correction and in anticipation of the evening publication of the FOMC minutes. The pound sterling still has strong upside potential as economic data show a strengthening UK economy: the UK labor market is on the rise – 84,000 new jobs were created in March, benefits applications fell by 15,000 and unemployment fell from 4.9% to 4.8%.

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EUR/USD. May 20, 2021 | Euro is recovering after yesterday's drawdownThe EUR/USD pair is recovering its positions on Thursday after yesterday's drawdown to the level of 1.2150. The current quote for the pair is 1.2190.Yesterday, the US Federal Reserve released the minutes of the last meeting. The document says that the US economy is still very far from the regulator's goals, and supply problems continue to impede its recovery. At the same time, it was noted that economic activity has nevertheless increased sharply recently.Regarding the state of the labor market, the Federal Reserve is confident that the growth rates of employment in certain sectors have become lower than they were before. The global outlook for inflation has not changed, and core inflation remains weak and insignificant.The US dollar weakened somewhat after the publication of the minutes, as the regulator did not clearly indicate its position on stimulating and supporting the economy. As a result, there were rumors in the market that a strong labor market report for May could be a signal for a $ 120 billion reduction in the asset purchase program in June.At the same time, the European currency is supported by the improved prospects for the economic recovery of the eurozone. If the situation continues to improve, the ECB may consider the possibility of reducing the volume of the quantitative easing program at the end of this year.

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EUR/USD. May 24, 2021 | The pair is in the range of 1.2150-1.2250At the beginning of the new trading week, the euro continues to trade in the range of 1.2150-1.2250. The current price of the EUR/USD pair is 1.2200.The European currency was supported by the publication of the composite index of business activity (PMI) in industry and services of 19 eurozone countries in May. According to preliminary estimates, the indicator rose to 56.9 points in May from 53.8 points in April. At the same time, analysts had expected the indicator to rise to 55.1 points. Such figures became a record for three years and three months.The index of business activity in the service sector of the euro zone in May, according to preliminary estimates, rose to 55.1 points against 50.5 points in April. Experts predicted growth to 52.3 points.It is worth noting that many financial institutions are beginning to revise their forecasts for the euro area. For example, the Bundesbank believes that Germany will reach pre-pandemic levels in the fall of this year, and consumer prices may rise by 4%.

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EUR/USD. May 25, 2021 | Euro is correcting after strong growthThe euro rate accelerated its growth on Tuesday, breaking through the upper boundary of the sideways trend 1.2150-1.2250. The European currency continues to be supported by the optimism of investors regarding the imminent recovery of global economies. And against this background, the demand for the «safe» dollar is declining, which is putting strong pressure on the American currency.Additional support for the euro was provided by economic data from Germany. According to the final estimate of the country's Federal Bureau of Statistics, GDP in the first quarter of 2021 declined by 1.8% against a projected decline of 1.7%. On an annualized basis, the GDP of Europe's largest economy fell 3.4%, while experts had expected a decline of 3.3%.The index of business expectations in Germany in May rose to 102.9 points (from 99.2), the forecast assumed the indicator at the level of 101.4 points. The business climate index was 99.2 points (forecast – 98.2 points).However, the RSI indicator bounced off the resistance area, which signals a weakening of the euro and the return of the EUR/USD pair to the range of 1.2150-1.2250.

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EUR/USD. May 26, 2021 | Euro declines from highsThe EUR/USD pair declines on Wednesday from the area of local highs above 1.2250 to the level of 1.2220. However, market participants expect that the euro will continue to rise in the near future. It is possible that this may happen already before the next meeting of the ECB, which is scheduled for June 10.The day before, traders drew attention to the data on German GDP and IFO business optimism. According to the published statistics, the German economy in the first quarter of this year contracted more than expected, falling by 1.8%. Ifo German business sentiment index rose to a 2-year high in May. The German business sentiment index rose to 99.2 in May from 96.6 in April. Economists had forecast the index would rise to 98. Additional support for the euro is provided by the general market optimism, which stimulates the growth of demand for risky assets.As for the American dollar, everything here depends on the rhetoric of the US Federal Reserve System (FRS). On the eve of the regulator's representatives confirmed their adherence to a soft monetary policy and generally adhered to the «dovish» rhetoric. And this puts pressure on the greenback's course.Today the macroeconomic calendar is completely empty. The pair will continue to trade below the upper border of the 1.2150-1.2250 range.

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EUR/USD. May 27, 2021 | Dollar strengthened on positive macro dataThe EUR/USD pair dropped below the level of 1.2200 and the bulls are unlikely to be able to return the euro to the area of local highs in the near future. The current quote of the instrument is 1.2180.Important macroeconomic statistics were not published yesterday, however, the dollar strengthened against the background of good yields on US government bonds, as well as due to general market neutrality. At the same time, the euro was pressured by data from the GfK company, according to which the leading consumer confidence index for June rose to -7 points from -8.6 points in May, worse than expected.Today the focus of traders' attention is shifted to the USA, where the GDP data in the second estimate was published. The US economy expanded by 6.4% qoq, worse than expected. The initial level is also fixed at 6.4%. Data on the volume of orders for durable goods in April showed an increase of 1.0%, which turned out to be better than analysts' forecasts, who had expected an increase of 0.8% m/m.Also today you should pay attention to the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits in the United States. The number of Americans who filed new applications for unemployment benefits last week fell more than expected – to 406 thousand. Analysts had expected 425 thousand applications. Taking into account these statistics, we can conclude that the US dollar will continue to strengthen and the pair quotes will return to the 1.2150 area.

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EUR/USD. May 28, 2021 | The dollar strengthens below 1.22The main currency pair continues to trade below the 1.2200 level. The current quote for the pair is 1.2180.The dollar was supported yesterday by macroeconomic statistics on the US labor market. According to the Ministry of Labor, the number of claims for unemployment benefits for the week was 406 thousand, reflecting a sharp decrease compared to last week at the level of 444 thousand. Analysts predicted the figure at the level of 425 thousand.The second estimate of US GDP for the first quarter did not reflect changes compared to the initial estimate, confirming the economic growth of 6.4% qoq. Experts had expected growth to 6.5% q/q. The volume of orders for durable goods in the US in April fell by 1.3% m/m after an increase in March by 0.8% m/m and the forecast of an increase this time by the same 0.8% m/m.The dynamics of the dollar is now mainly influenced by the position of the FRS. If the regulator continues to continue its stimulating policy, ignoring inflationary risks, the greenback has little chance of strengthening. US Treasury Chief Janet Yellen believes that annual inflation in the country will be high at least until the end of this year, and Yellen estimates the recent inflationary surge as a temporary phenomenon.

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European indices Stoxx Europe 600 and DAX on Friday updated recordsThe composite index of the largest enterprises in the region Stoxx Europe 600 increased by 0.57%, to a record 448.98 points. The German DAX climbed 0.74% and surpassed the 15,500 mark for the first time.The French CAC 40 gained 0.75% and hit its highest level in 21 years.The British FTSE 100 indicator rose 0.04%. Italy's FTSE MIB and Spain's IBEX 35 added 0.45% and 0.42%, respectively.Global markets are being supported by signs that the US economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic is gaining momentum.The data on the US labor market, released yesterday, showed a more significant than expected reduction in the number of applications for unemployment benefits in the country. The number of new applications last week decreased by 39 thousand, to 406 thousand, the lowest since the beginning of the coronavirus pandemic. Analysts on average expected the number of applications to decrease to 425 thousand.The consensus forecast of experts provides for the growth of the PCE Core index in April by 2.9%, the highest since 1993.Market participants are also watching talks in Washington on an infrastructure spending plan to further support the economy.In the fourth quarter of last year, according to revised data, French GDP fell by 1.5%, not 1.4% as previously reported.Shares in UK developer Vistry Group PLC jumped 4.3% in Friday trading, ranking among the top gainers among the Stoxx Europe 600 components.Siemens AG, Europe's largest industrial conglomerate, rose 3.8%.The leaders of the fall were the shares of the Spanish bank Banco de Sabadell SA, which lost 4.5%.Antofagasta Plc, one of the world's largest copper producers, lost 2.2%.

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The dollar is waiting for specifics from the FedFundamentally, the dollar looks weak. Arguments in favor of its further decline have been listed for several weeks. If last week a deeper sinking of the dollar did not take place, in particular, due to large placements of the US Treasury, then it is quite possible to fall to new lows this week. The next few sessions are exempted from bond placements.It is worth noting that the marks of 89.00–90.0 points serve as a kind of support for the American currency index, which is quite efficient. Despite the increased pressure, the dollar does not fall below. Yes, the American dollar is weak, but in order to gain more arguments in favor of further weakening, you need to look around and carefully study what is happening. Not everything is so simple here, some statements of the FRS members caused some distortions in the markets. And yet, the US Central Bank in the near future may begin substantively talking about the beginning of the reduction of quantitative easing.Real estate in the USA is becoming more expensive at alarming rates, which provokes comparison of the current situation with the period of 2006-2007. After the coronavirus crisis, it was not enough to get into a mortgage. At least some kind of reaction is now expected from the Fed.Expectations of hints of at least some action support the dollar a little, at least they are able to keep it from falling deeper. At the same time, the technical picture in the dollar index on the weekly time frame indicates the possibility of a double bottom formation around 89.00 points.

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Euro and the US dollar continue to fight for control in the currency marketThe race for leadership continues between the American and European currencies. The competition between these two currencies keeps the market in good form, heating up an already tense situation.On the morning of June 2, the EUR/USD pair was sharply trading around the level of 1.2214, gradually rising from the previous close at 1.2211. But compared to June 1, the main currency pair loses noticeably, declining from the level of 1.2230. It can be noted that an important resistance level for the euro has formed near this level.In order to strengthen the "bearish" sentiment and to break through the support level of 1.2212 and the mirror level of 1.2200, the EUR/USD pair will head to the levels of 1.2163, 1.2128, and 1.2102. In the other scenario, the instrument will remain within the price range of 1.2212-1.2232. It can be noted that the ANZ Research Bank's experts expect the pair to slowly increase to the level of 1,2300 in the second quarter of 2021, and to 1.2400 and to 1.2600, respectively in the third and fourth quarters.However, the continuation of the growth may become more complicated amid the high probability of curtailing the Fed's stimulating policy. There are ongoing discussions about this in the market, but the implementation of these plans is still uncertain. The current situation keeps the US dollar in suspense, and its dynamics are far from stable. This week, the US dollar is trading near five-month lows, yielding not only to the Euro, but also to commodity currencies.

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AUD/USD: Does the Australian dollar need help to see further paths?The Australian dollar remains relatively calm, being in the existing price range. However, experts warn traders against being too relaxed, believing that the currency can change direction at any time.During the current week, the Australian dollar experienced a slight volatility. On Wednesday, June 2, the Australian dollar sank slightly, despite the positive macro statistics received from Australia. According to a report from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), in the first quarter of 2021, the country's GDP increased by 1.8%, and on an annualized basis – by 1.1%.The current situation has had a positive impact on the dynamics of the Australian dollar. On the morning of Thursday, June 3, the AUD/USD pair was trading near 0.7724, trying to get higher. According to analysts, since the beginning of this year, the tandem has remained in a wide range – from 0.7600 to 0.7835. Over the past three weeks, it has narrowed to 0.7680 and 0.7815. According to experts, the AUD/USD pair lacks strong drivers for a further breakthrough. In the event of their appearance, the scale of the tandem can tilt either downward or go up.