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Mauzo: SuperForex discussion thread

  1. #11
    CAD/JPY: fundamental review and forecast


    Positive economic data from Japan significantly impacted the rates. Seems like formation of the new upward trend.

    The rates continue in the frames of the upward trend, but we can see on the chart formation of a weak downtrend. Formation of a new trend is based on the decreasing of oil prices and worsening of trade relations between the United States and Canada.
    This week the Japanese yen continued to strengthen due to the positive data on the economy. The country's GDP unexpectedly grew in the 2nd quarter by 1%, while it was expected growth in just 0.6%. Such a growth is the most rapid growth in the Japan's economy since more than 2 years. we hadn't seen the same significant growth since the 1st quarter of 2015. In annual terms, GDP growth was +4%, exceeding forecasts in 1.5%. It should also be noted that Japan's GDP grew for the sixth quarter in a row. Consumer spending indicator increased by 0.9% in Q2, exceeding the expected level in almost 2 times. And the volume of industrial production in June rose by 2.2% amid expectations of 1.6%.

    Thus, amid extremely positive statistics from Japan, it was very hard for canadian dollar to resist the yen. Strengthening of JPY would be even more rapid, but it was prevented by a factor of geopolitical tensions between the USA and North Korea, although the situation has been normalized to the usual level these week.

    Today the market is waiting for information from Canada's index of consumer prices in July, but likely it's not necessary to expect for significant strengthening of the CAD, given that oil is decreasing again amid information about achieving of the maximum levels of shale oil extraction in the USA over the past 2 years. Crude oil stocks fell significantly this week, but the increase in oil production will lead to rapid recovery of oil reserves. In addition, analysts have lowered their forecasts about demand of oil in China. It should be noted that If China started a massive shift to electric transportation, in accordance with the global trend, it would negatively impact the demand for oil in this country in the future.

    Oscillators MACD, Stochastics give contrary signals. In this situation, the most optimal would be to open the short deals upon medium term trading. For those who use short term strategies it's possible to open the deals to BUY, in accordance with Stochastics' signal making a profit on the price correction.

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  2. <a href="https://www.instaforex.com/company_news">Forex Spain</a>
  3. #12
    Weekly Market Overview

    An update on the Euro and the American dollar in light of recent events.

    This week our gaze draws back to Europe. In our previous look at the euro we talked about how much it has strengthened this year, based on positive economic reports and favorable election outcomes. Let’s take a look at the situation in Europe now.

    The euro has been the shining star of Forex trading this year, gaining a remarkable 11.5% on the USD so far in 2017. In recent weeks investors’ appetites towards the euro increased amid an expectation that the European Central Bank will change its monetary policy toward a less dovish approach that supports an even stronger euro. Some analysts have even suggested that we may see a parity between the EUR and the British pound in the coming months. However, ECB chief Mario Draghi has not given any real indication that he plans to cut the stimulus program anytime soon.

    Now the euro is easing a little bit against the dollar as analysts prepare for the upcoming Jackson Hole conference on August 24-26, where Draghi will speak. The small drops in the price of the euro are likely a result of investors’ impatience regarding the ECB decision on monetary policy.

    On Wednesday the euro dropped from its 2015 height level and went 2% down to 1.1691 USD and 1.13960 CHF.

    Furthermore, the euro was able to gain on the dollar because of the political turmoil in the United States. Recent tensions with North Korea, as well as a neo-nazi attack both rattled the United States over the past two weeks. However, things seem to be cooling down with North Korea, and the US released some favorable data on retail sales (up by 0.6 in July) which helped the USD find a more solid ground. If the economy fares well and inflation increases, investors would again look to the dollar as an attractive trading instrument and expect the Federal Reserve to increase interest rates again.

    However, economic data from the United States has fluctuated throughout 2017. Inflation and wage growth haven’t been at the expected levels, and the Federal Reserve has been extremely careful about adjusting its policies. This is why right now another rate hike is unlikely. Even if rates are increased in the coming months, analysts don’t expect multiple hikes, as was initially planned.


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  4. #13
    AUD/JPY Technical Outlook & H4 Chart

    We have a bearish reversal underway or possibly a buying opportunity.

    The AUD/JPY currency pair sold off heavily this month following the retesting of the new area of resistance between 89.00 and 89.30 which we referred to in our last report about the pair. Last week the pair made a top smaller than the previous one, which means we are in a downside wave. We have to be careful because we recognized a bottom higher than the previous one, so that we have two trend lines - one for the uptrend and a second one for the downtrend.

    The pair has a support area at 85.70-85.90. The prices reached it last week, so we can expect an upside movement this week, in addition to the pair reaching the 50% from the rising wave from 81.65 to 89.29. We can predict the pair will begin another series of impulse waves.

    The Next Few Days

    After we analyzed the chart well we can discover that we would work on the breaking out of the pair. If the AUD/JPY breaks the downtrend we will buy the pair and keep our targets at 88.20 and 89.05. Conversely, if it breaks the uptrend we will sell the pair and keep the target at 84.62 (61.8% Fibonacci). Still, we predict the pair will break the downtrend and rise again, so we can take buy positions now with a small lot at the current level 86.15 and keep the T/P level at 86.85, then wait for the breaking out.

    This week the markets don’t offer any hot news from Australia or Japan but you have to be careful about any uncalendared news that can change the market direction.

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  5. #14
    NZD/JPY: Short Review and Forecast
    The downward trend was formed a month ago and continues amid positive economic news from Japan. The NZD is under the pressure of decreased prices for food and raw materials.

    The rates of the NZD/JPY since the beginning of the month are in the frames of the downward trend formed just a month ago. Despite the recent positive data about economy of New Zealand, where we can see a Federal budget surplus by 1.5 billion NZD, the New Zealand currency fell against major currencies. At the same time, it should be noted that the NZD did not have enough incentives for growth amid the absence of news about the economy. In addition, the NZD was under the pressure of the decreased prices for raw materials and food, which reached annual minimums this week. The price for wheat fell from $560 down to $403. At the same time the JPY had many stimuli to strengthen.

    The PMI index of business activity in August was 52.8 against the expected level of 52.3. The volume of imports and exports grew less than the expected - 16.3% versus 13.4%, respectively, and in the long term increased the pressure on the trade balance. However, in July the trade surplus in Japan narrowed by 17%, though it's 418 billion yen, exceeding the expectations of investors. A week earlier the yen strengthened due to the unexpected GDP growth by 1% and an increase in consumer spending which was almost twice higher than the market expectation. Therefore, the Japanese economy now looks better for investors.

    Tomorrow the NZD may get a chance to strengthen, if new data about the trade balance of New Zealand pleases investors. At the moment, oscillators (MACD, Stochastics, RSI) unanimously point to the rates in the oversold zone. The deals to BUY would be the most effective in this situation. There's a possibility to make a profit on the expected price correction.

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  6. #15
    USD/CHF Technical Analysis & Daily Chart

    With the recent development we see a potential for further growth in the USD/CHF rate.

    Today we direct our attention to the USD/CHF currency pair.

    The USD/CHF managed to rise above its support level at 0.9558 yesterday and mark new highs near 0.9670. We expect that this movement above the support would persist for a while. The price is approaching the nearby resistance level of 0.9693. If it manages to overcome that, we can see it grow further to the second resistance at 0.9725. As long as the pair moves above the support level at 0.9558, we hope to see a continuation of the bullish movement from yesterday.

    In terms of trading this pair well today, we should expect it to move within about 90 pips, based on the USD/CHFs previous behavior on the market. Any buy positions should be placed above the pivot of 0.9558, with a first target at the resistance at 0.9693, and a second target at the next resistance level at 0.9725, which is likely the best candidate for a T/P order, as it is unlikely that the pair will be able to overcome it and would likely drop after testing it. However, this strategy is only suitable if the pair remains above 0.9558; if it drops below, we should close these positions.

    As of the moment of this articles publication, the USD/CHF is trading around 0.9595 and technical indicators agree on a strong buy recommendation.


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  7. #16
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  8. #17
    GBP/NZD: Technical Outlook before UK Bank Rate

    The GBP/NZD is ahead of 1.8360 after breaking through the resistance area.

    If you want to be successful in Forex trading, you have to follow your rules and your trusted analysis, especially if you use classical methods of analysis. In our last report about the GBP/NZD pair we recommended buying the pair for several reasons: lthe pair had reached further than 61.8% Fibonacci and was trading above the ascending trend line, and there also was a double bottom pattern, all of which are signs which told us to buy the pair. This is why we bought it at 1.7700 - we have taken our profit at 1.7850. Then we bought the pair again after breaking the neckline at 1.7885 and the prices hit our target today at 1.8230.

    The pair is now trading around 38.2% Fibonacci in a series of impulse waves, after it reached 1.7500 - close to the upside trend line. The pair has a resistance area at 1.8362 which the pair is expected to reach in the next few days. That is in case the pair is still trading above the support area at 1.7906 and the moving average 50. The Stochastic indicator started giving us a sell signal, which is a sign that the pair will make a downward correction movement.

    The Next Few Days

    From this classical analysis of the pair we cant take any positions now at the current level. We can buy the GBP/NZD at the support level 1.7906 or sell at the resistance level 1.8362, but we prefer the buying scenario for the next trading days. In effect, we can take a buy position now with a small volume and keep our target at 1.8362.

    This week the market has some hot news from the UK like the CPI and the official bank rate next Thursday.

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  9. #18

    Charity in Thailand

    This week SuperForex held a special event in Lat Krabang - one of the districts of Thailands capital, Bangkok. As a modern company, we appreciate the importance of Corporate Social Responsibility and aim to help people in need. Thus we have chosen the Camillian Home to support needy Thai children.

    Camillian Home is a registered non-profit childrens charity. It is one of the few facilities in Thailand dedicated to caring for these children in a family atmosphere, and it aims to serve as a model in caring for vulnerable children with special needs. They work with children who are living with disabilities, some of whom have been orphaned or abandoned, and some of whom are also living with HIV/AIDS.

    For such a mission we asked Jiranan Suebnuch, our representative in Thailand, to help us make those children and employees happy. She kindly agreed to help us with this initiative. Together we bought all the things Camillian Home has in its suggested items for donation.

    Pleasant people from Camillian home told they will make use of all those products and young Thai children, for whom the whole event was devoted, seemed happy and spent a good time with representatives of SuperForex company.

    If you have any ideas on how to help more people that really need it - feel free to contact us. We are sure that acting in socially responsible way is an essential part of modern companies working.

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  10. #19

    USD/MXN: Short Review & Forecast

    The USD has strengthened against most currencies based on positive economic news and increased probability for a new rate hike this year.
    The U.S. dollar strengthened against most currencies this week. At the same time, the tragic event in Las Vegas wasn't noticed by investors amid positive economic news, which increases the probability of a rate hike in the United States. FED Chairman Janet Yellen also said that the Central Bank is not going to refuse one more rate hike which was scheduled this year. In addition, the dollar received support from the tax reform which was promised personally by Donald Trump. Also, the USD has been supported given the probability of a change of the head of the Federal Reserve. Analysts forecast that Kevin Warsh will be chosen as new FED Head. It's known that he is a supporter of a strong dollar and tight monetary policy. Consequently, there are perspectives for further strengthening of the dollar.

    Data about the Mexican economy also pleased investors this week. The business activity index amounted to 52.8 points in September, surpassing investors' expectations. This is a record level in recent years, but the decision of the Central Bank of Mexico to keep the rate at the same level didn't support significantly the MXN compared to the strong dollar. So, the rates continue in the frames of a downward trend, although the resistance line has been gradually shifting upwards for the last several months, indicating a weakening of the current trend. However, at the moment the most optimal would be the deals on the trend, which is confirmed unanimously by the MACD and Stochastics oscillators.

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  11. #20

    XAU/USD: Short Review & Forecast

    The strong USD and the high probability of a rate hike this year put pressure on the GOLD. However, the geopolitical situation can change everything.
    The situation on the market changed last month and the upward trend turned into a downward one. Until September the dollar had been under pressure due to geopolitical conflicts, the failure of Donald Trump's reforms and weak economic statistics. Consequently, a further increasing of the interest rate this year was doubtful for investors. All these negative factors followed one by one and put pressure on the dollar. Therefore, investors chose safer assets. This led to the Gold rising in price since the beginning of the year.
    This week the dollar came under pressure again due to geopolitical risks because North Korea has announced new tests of ballistic missiles which are capable of reaching U.S. territory. However, the dollar has kept at a good level due to the strong economic statistics. The latest data on the labor market showed a decrease in the unemployment rate to 4.2% - the lowest level since 2001. In addition, the average hourly earnings have grown by 2.9%, which increases the probability of rising inflation. Therefore, a rate hike in the US in December is now expected by investors with a probability of 90%.
    The resistance line of the trend is under the threat of moving up due to all of the geopolitical risks, but at the moment the most optimal course would be the short deals in the short-term, which is also confirmed by the MACD oscillator.
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